Nick Chubb is back in the spotlight for 2025, and this time, the situation looks different. After years as the featured back in Cleveland, he’s now part of a new-look offense in Houston with a fresh opportunity to contribute. His recovery from injury, combined with a strong track record of production, has fans and analysts watching closely.
This article looks at the latest betting markets and what they reveal about Chubb’s projected usage, efficiency, and fantasy value this season.
Rushing Yards (Over/Under)
Nick Chubb’s rushing yards line typically falls between 38.5 and 52.5 yards per game, depending on the opponent and his expected workload. Projection models suggest a stronger outlook, with an estimated average of around 57.7 rushing yards per game, which notably outpaces his 2024 season average of 41.5 yards per game.
The gap between sportsbook lines and projections reflects a clear divide between caution and potential. Oddsmakers are pricing in Chubb’s recent injury history and the presence of Joe Mixon in the Texans’ backfield. Still, if he consistently sees 12 to 15 carries per game, he has a realistic path to hitting the over.
From a fantasy football perspective, that kind of volume would put Chubb in weekly consideration as a flex option, especially in standard and half-PPR formats where yardage is key. His efficiency may not match his career highs, but workload alone could keep him fantasy-relevant in the right matchups.
For bettors, there’s a strong case for the over, particularly when the line dips below 45.5 yards. In games against weaker run defenses or when the Texans are expected to control the tempo, this becomes one of the more appealing Nick Chubb player props on the board.
Rushing Attempts (Over/Under)
The current market sets Chubb’s rushing attempts in the 10.5 to 11.5 range, a number that may look low at first glance. But considering his role in Houston’s offense alongside Joe Mixon, it reflects tempered expectations. Still, projections have Chubb averaging around 14.6 carries per game, which gives this number some upward pressure.
What makes this prop appealing is that it leans more on usage than efficiency. Chubb may not be breaking 40-yard runs, but if he’s getting consistent touches, he’s productive enough to matter. From a fantasy angle, this usage makes him a reliable depth piece or streaming option in favorable game scripts, especially in formats that reward volume over explosiveness.
For bettors, this is a cleaner line to target than rushing yards. It’s easier to project carries than it is to predict how far a player goes with them. If you’re looking for a straightforward, low-risk prop early in the season, the “rushing attempts over” is a strong play whenever Chubb is expected to be active in the Texans’ run plan.
Season Leader Props (Most Rushing Yards / League Futures)
Nick Chubb isn’t a top name in season-long rushing leader markets right now, but his potential is hard to ignore. With a career average of 5.1 yards per carry and multiple 1,000-yard seasons, he’s capable of climbing leaderboards if given the volume.
As training camp progresses, sportsbooks may begin offering team-specific or long-shot league rushing props depending on his role. Outlets like Fantasy Points and PFF have pointed to Chubb as a high-efficiency runner who could outperform expectations if he stays healthy and earns consistent touches.
Anytime / First / Last Touchdown Scorer
Even with a reduced role, Nick Chubb’s ability to score near the goal line remains one of his most reliable strengths. He has logged 51 career rushing touchdowns, and in just eight games during the 2024 season, he added three rushing and one receiving touchdown. In Houston, Chubb is expected to see work in short-yardage and red-zone situations, which puts him in a position to continue producing scoring plays despite sharing the backfield with Joe Mixon.
From a fantasy football standpoint, that kind of usage gives Chubb real value in specific formats. If you’re playing best ball, setting DFS lineups, or managing a team in a touchdown-heavy scoring system, he remains a viable option. He may not have consistent yardage, but his role as a goal-line finisher gives him weekly spike potential.
On the betting side, Chubb’s Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds often fall between +130 and +200, depending on the matchup. Those are strong odds for a player expected to handle a meaningful share of the red-zone work. Additionally, First and Last Touchdown Scorer props can offer sneaky value, especially in games where Houston is expected to run the ball early or protect a lead late.
These are higher-risk bets, but Chubb’s usage profile makes them worth considering in the right situations. You can find these and other Best NFL Game Props on FanDuel, where touchdown markets are frequently updated with competitive odds.
Final Thoughts
Nick Chubb may not be the RB1 you drafted in 2019–2022—but he’s not fantasy or betting dead either. He’s a volume-based flex with scoring upside, a prime target for overs on rushing props, and still a red-zone hammer when the Texans get inside the 10. Fantasy managers should monitor Chubb in deeper leagues and best ball formats. Sports bettors can find value in his props by tracking matchups and injury reports, especially in favorable game scripts.
