Pick Two: Saquon Barkley vs. Bijan Robinson?
Pick One of your 2025 Fantasy Football Draft is in the books: Ja’Marr Chase is correctly off the board. The clock is ticking, and you are now staring at a brutal decision: Saquon Barkley vs. Bijan Robinson.
Should you go with Saquon Barkley, last year’s RB1 who’s still running behind the mammoth Eagles’ offensive line? Or could Bijan Robinson leap Barkley in 2025 and hit a whole new fantasy football ceiling?
Let’s dive into who is the best Pick Two for 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts.
Why You Should Pick Saquon Barkley at Pick Two
The move to Philadelphia was massive for Saquon Barkley, who’s fresh off career-highs in rushing attempts (345) yards (2005), rush TDs (13), and Half-PPR FPs (340). Barkley finished as a Top-5 RB in 41% of his games, including 5 games of 31+ FPs, while scoring as an RB1 a whopping 62% of the time.
Turns out going from a bottom-five line to the best line in the league can help! Barkley earned 1328 yards BEFORE contact last year!
Even more crazy, Barkley was tackled at the one-yard line an NFL-high 11 times. Ten of those became Jalen Hurts TDs, zero became Barkley scores. Imagine if just a handful more of TDs were added? We’d be talking about one of the highest-scoring RB seasons in Fantasy Football History!
Barkley is also coming off a career-low 33 catches, and he had more than 2 receptions just 4 times last year. There’s actually some meat on Saquon’s fantasy bone regarding TDs and receptions (even if Jalen Hurts benefits neither of those)!
Perhaps we haven’t seen Barkley’s true fantasy ceiling with the Eagles quite yet — a scary thought.
Why You Should Pick Bijan Robinson at Pick Two
Bijan Robinson is among the safest clicks that still carries astronomical upside in 2025.
With 304 carries and 72 targets, Bijan paced all RBs in Expected Fantasy Points (305, 12 more than the next closest). Bijan turned this pristine usage into an RB3 PPR Finish (RB4 in Half), with his 341.7 FPs trailing only Barkley and Gibbs in PPR.
Oddly enough, Bijan and the Falcons struggled through the first 5 weeks – Robinson scored only 1 TD and did not have a single Top-12 RB performance; Robinson was just the RB18 from Weeks 1-5.
Bijan then went on to DOMINATE for the remainder of 2025. From Weeks 6-18, Bijan was the RB1 in FPPG (22.8), topping 20+ FPs in 10-of-12 games & finishing as a Top-12 RB in each of those outbursts (83% of the time).
Over these final 12 weeks, Bijan’s season-long pace was 397 touches (61 rec), 2056 YFS, 19 TDs & 388 FPs (compared to a pace of 289 touches, 1482 yds, 3 TDs through 5 weeks). Most notably, his carries per game jumped from 13.4 to 19.75.
While the sample is small (only 3 games), Bijan was even more beastly during Michael Penix’s 3 starts to close 2025. Bijan scored 24.3, 24.8, and 31.3 FPs across these 3 games for an average of 26.8. He averaged 24.7 touches, 125 YFS, and 2 TDs per game during these weeks.
If there was a fault to Bijan’s game, it was the lack of truly explosive plays. Robinson was very solid in consistently churning positive yards, and ranked 4th in the league with 10+ yard carries (34 total). He ranked 4th with 70 missed tackles forced.
Yet, Bijan ranked 9th in 15+ yard runs (12 total), with a season-long of 37 yards – a total 15 RBs beat last year. The true elite of Henry, Barkley, Gibbs, and Taylor all had runs of at least 70+ yards. Robinson is well-aware, though, saying that’s the focus of his offseason:
“We’re done with 30-yard runs and all that stuff. Now it’s time to get those 60 yards, 50 yards. So, I’ve been doing a lot more explosive drills. I’ve been doing a lot more running — 100 yards, like sprinting — so we can be prepared for, God willing, when those moments come in all the games.
“I work on it every single day. Obviously, the explosives, we always want them. We’ve added so many things to this offense so we can create more explosives. And, for me, sometimes it’s that one defender, but now that’s all. That’s what I’ve been working on all offseason, just seeing that free hitter and making moves off him.”
With Penix under center all year, the offense ideally clicking right from the jump, and a focus on more explosive long-runs, Bijan could easily finish as the top-RB and overall player in 2025.
The Sneaky Risk of Saquon Barkley in 2025 Fantasy Football
Unfortunately, Saquon Barkley has a few curses & trends working against him repeating as the No.1 RB in 2025:
- In nearly 20 years, no RB has gone back-to-back as the scoring fantasy RB since LT (2006 & 2007)
- LT was also the last RB over 28 to finish as the RB1 (2007) & Barkley turned 28 this offseason
- The Madden Curse, of course.
- The Curse of 370 touches (& 400 carries). Including the playoffs, Barkley finished with 436 carries and 482 touches. Since 2010, there have been 17 RBs with 370+ touches. All but one of these RBs fell in fantasy production, with 14-of-17 dropping by at least 50+ points and 11-of-17 dropping by 100+ points.
The outlook is even worse for 400+ curry RBs. In the Super Bowl era, 35 RBs have hit 400+ carries in a season. 31-of-35 scored fewer points (88%), and no RB scored more since 2000. The average drop in FPs the next year was a whopping 141. None have finished higher than RB15 since 2003. Via The Athletic:
AND there’s E) The curse of 2000+ yard rusher – only 8 RBs have achieved this statistical feat. Every single one dropped at least 99.4 FPs the next year, with an average drop of 151 FPs!
Clearly, Barkley has a lot working against him in 2025.
Still, his set up behind this No.1-ranked line is so glorious, and Barkley just posted his most efficient and explosive rushing metrics of his career, ranking 1st in Breakaway runs (25) and 3rd in FPS over expectation.
He is justifiable as high as No.1 overall, but I slightly prefer the higher-floor, similar-ceiling Bijan, who offers a similar ceiling, but has a much higher floor.
Summary: Bijan Robinson is the Best Pick Two in 2025 Fantasy Football
If I have the second pick in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts, I am taking Bijan Robinson over Saquon Barkley with no hesitation. While Barkley does have higher “spike week” upside, and could even improve on his massive 2024 with a handful of TDs going his way, Bijan’s floor is far safer. This is especially true with all the “curses” Barkley has going against him. While I tend to fade that type of noise, I also recognize the added risk to Barkley, and the reward seems awfully similar to Bijan — especially if the Falcons star keeps up his insane pace with Penix at QB, and truly works on his explosiveness.
Both backs surprisingly still have meat left on their fantasy bones after impressive 2024s, but the lesser risk and similar reward of Bijan makes him the pick for me in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts.
This write up came from The Wolf’s 2025 Fantasy Football Guide. Help keep his rankings & all of our content FREE, while getting the best guide in the market! Click the link or graphic below to learn more.
