Brian Thomas Jr 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook After League-Winning Rookie Season
You shouldn’t need much convincing on Brian Thomas’ league-winning upside in 2025 Fantasy Football.
Amidst a generational rookie class, Thomas led them all with 1282 yards and 10 TDs, while smashing every Jaguars’ franchise record for rookies. He finished 14th among WRs in targets, but ranked 3rd in yards, 5th in TDs, and 4th in FPPG, displaying INCREDIBLE efficiency.
BTJ was also the No.1 scoring WR in the Fantasy Football Playoffs (28.2 FPPG!). Via RotoViz’s amazing NFL Stat Explorer Tool:
Thomas’ end-of-season run was particularly noteworthy, as it was the first time he was truly leaned on. Crazily, BTJ didn’t see double-digit targets in a single-game until after the Week 12 Bye.
He then saw 10+ targets in six straight games, averaging a whopping 35% target share in this span. Unsurprisingly, BTJ topped 85 yards in 5-of-6 games & trailed only Chase in FPs over these 6 weeks, averaging a whopping 22.9 FPPG:
Despite the amazing production and 2024 finish, there’s shockingly still SO MUCH room for BTJ to grow in 2025 and beyond.
In fact, Brian Thomas Jr’s fantasy football ceiling actually might be the highest of any WR after the Chase – Jefferson – Lamb tier.
Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Football Outlook When Fully Healthy:
By all accounts, Thomas SMASHED during his rookie season. His 16.7 FPPG rank ninth-best of any rookie WR since 1990! The list is:
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Randy Moss
- Malik Nabers
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Anquan Boldin
- Puka Nacua
- Justin Jefferson
- Michael Thomas
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Mike Evans
First, let’s look at BTJ himself. He suffered a rib injury in Week 8 which was supposed to sideline him 4ish weeks. Thomas ultimately gutted it out, but his production suffered with 6.2, 3.2, and 13.6 games. If you remove those, BTJ averaged 18.9 FPPG.
18.9 FPPG would’ve sent BTJ to No.3 on the All-Time Rookie WR FPPG list, ahead of Malik Nabers!
If Brian Thomas can remain healthy in 2024, that alone could send him to new heights. However, there’s upside for even more within this new offense.
The Liam Coen Effect: Brian Thomas a Slot Demon?
Perhaps even more important than Thomas’ health is “The Liam Coen” effect.
In Coen’s first year calling plays at the NFL level, the Bucs ranked 3rd in yards and 4th in points, including the 4th most rushing yards, 3rd most passing yards, and 2nd most passing TDs.
Notably, both Chris Godwin AND Mike Evans also set career-highs in Yards Per Route Run, posting their most efficient seasons ever under Coen. He brought a Rams-inspired scheme that created tons of space and “lay-up” opportunities for both of his WRs, especially Godwin in the slot.
Coen has already suggested he will greatly expand Thomas’ route tree, while saying “our pass game will run through him.”
Coen continued to gush: “He’s so dynamic, being able to move him around, where you saw him at LSU, maybe not do some of those things, right? Where he was mostly outside, running more linear routes, vertical posts, some overs and then the stop… The ability for him to snap down, get in the slot, be able to run some of the choice routes, looky routes, and then, oh, by the way, you can throw him a screen and he can go do something with it. Our pass game will run through him, and super excited to get to work with him.”
Recently, Coen doubled-down on sending Thomas vertical out of the slot, noting: “The ability for a big dude like him to be able to operate in the slot, run some of the choice and option routes, but also be able to go vertical and catch the ball down the field, he’s been a real pleasure to work with so far.”
These new, “lay-up / horizontal” branches to Thomas’ route tree, as well as more move-around slot usage, should prove absolutely massive to his fantasy floor and ceiling. Especially because Thomas has already proven to be incredibly dangerous from inside.
Despite ranking 52nd among WRs with only 209 slot snaps (25%), Thomas led all WRs in slot TDs with 7 total. He ranked 3rd in Yards per Route Run from the slot with 3.23. He also racked up 546 Yards After Catch (YAC), which was WR4 on the year, too. His 0.87 FPs per slot route was the best in the NFL, more than 28% better than any other WR & 58% better than Amon-Ra St. Brown:
Last year, no one is better at getting creative with their slot WRs than Coen. He helped the less-dynamic and explosive Chris Godwin finish as the WR2 in FPPG and post his highest per game averages of his career.
If BTJ is used in similar fashion, as Coen promises, and maintains most of his slot-efficiency, he genuinely could push for 2,000 yards.
Risks with Brian Thomas 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
I only see two question marks around Brian Thomas’ 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook.
Number One is Travis Hunter. The team mortgaged the entire future to select Hunter, and likely have a huge role in mind. Recently, Liam Coen tossed out “80%” as an estimate for Hunter’s offenive snaps.
Fine – but Hunter is also going to play plenty of defense. I’ll never root for injuries, but there’s also double contingent injury upside: Hunter himself may be at a greater risk of getting hurt or breaking down if he’s playing significant snaps both ways. OR if the Jaguars suffer major secondary injuries, they may have no choice but to have Hunter focus mostly on defense.
ven if not, there should be no confusion who the main vein of this offense is. If anything, Hunter keeps some attention off BTJ.
Number Two, and much more valid, is Trevor Lawrence – which is insane, given he was once considered the most fool-proof prospect since Peyton Manning! Lawrence has flat out blown so far as a QB, and I’m not a believer myself. He looks soft, timid, and inaccurate, and often locks into his first-read too quickly without making it through his progressions or truly reading the defense. In fact, no QB has posted a higher first-read throw rate than Lawrence for three straight seasons;
Considering Thomas should be the first read on most occasions, this actually isn’t the end of the world!
Yet, what if Lawrence can take a Baker Mayfield-style jump? Mayfield had never finished inside the Top-15 QBs in FPPG before Coen… and he just finished as the QB4. By all accounts, Lawrence has been rapidly progressing under Coen’s tutelage. If Lawrence can have an even mediocre jump, Thomas has legitimate 2,000 Yard / 20 TD upside.
Summary: Brian Thomas 2025 Fantasy Outlook is Insane
In short, Brian Thomas just posted a Top-10 rookie WR seasons of all-time, despite being banged up with a ribs injury. When he finally got treated like an Alpha, he responded emphatically, finishing as the WR2 behind only Chase in FPPG from Week 13 on, averaging 35% target share.
More importantly, in Liam Coen’s hyper-efficient offense, BTJ will log slot snaps, an area of the field he has crushed from. This is a McVay inspired scheme, and there’s a real shot BTJ plays the infamous “Cooper Kupp” slot role that helped make Kupp a triple-crown winner while posting the most FPPG by a WR ever.
BTJ is far more explosive and dangerous, and could legitimately push for 2,000 yards and records of his own in this role. He is an easy smash anywhere from Pick 7 onward. I currently have him at 10th Overall (+5 ECR) in my 2025 Fantasy Football Rankings, but truth be told, I think he jumps St. Brown in my next ranking set.
This post is an excerpt from my 2025 Fantasy Football Guide, which just dropped! Click here to learn more and to help a special ed teacher keep this small fantasy site rolling!
