A large portion of the fantasy community has Jerry Jeudy pegged as a 2023 breakout candidate. I’m here to say, I’m all aboard the hype train.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that the Broncos’ offense was horrific in 2022. I know if you’re reading this article in June, you follow the NFL closely enough to know how bad it was. However, this tweet is a great way to illustrate the dumpster fire that was the Bronco’s offense:
Yes, the offense was so bad that people created a toilet tracker for Russell Wilson. I don’t know if it’s bad news or just comical, but it took Wilson until Week 18 to have more passing touchdowns than toilets in his house.
Despite an overall abysmal offense, Jerry Jeudy managed to put together a respectable year. He finished as the WR22 overall (PPR) despite only playing in 13 games. In those 13 healthy games, Jeudy averaged 16.5 points per game which placed him at WR13 on a points-per-game basis.
HERE COMES SEAN PAYTON
One good thing about having one of the league’s worst offenses is that there’s nowhere to go but up. The biggest reason the Bronco’s offense may see some improvements in 2023 has nothing to do with new players. Here comes Sean Payton… the 59-year-old weapon who can turn things around in Denver.
Payton’s arrival certainly doesn’t guarantee improvements in Denver. Wilson will have to improve if this offense will take a major step. Yet, Payton has a history of developing offenses that can support elite fantasy production at WR. In 15 years in New Orleans, Payton had eight seasons with a WR1 (top-12) and 11 seasons with a top-20 WR.
Payton is a solidified head coach who has commanded premier offenses on many occasions. Playing under Payton’s scheme, I expect the Denver offense to be leaps and bounds better than last year. This will come on the back of Wilson returning to form, which will do nothing but benefit Jeudy. Unfortunately, not everyone at RSJ thinks the same and The Wolf remains hesitant about Wilson. This has led to him ranking Jeudy at WR32, seven spots lower than the ECR.
A DECEPTIVE 2022
Many fantasy managers may look at Jeudy’s overall stat line from 2022 and see a disappointment. However, as I mentioned earlier, Jeudy’s 2022 performance requires a closer look. This is because Jeudy not only missed two games but also had two games where he played less than 20 percent of snaps due to injury.
During his healthy games, Jeudy not only passed the eye test, but he had several very encouraging metrics. These metrics include a 23.1 percent target share, 7.4 targets per game, and 2.23 yards per route run. What is most encouraging to me is the 2.23 yards per route run, as this shows an incredibly high level of efficiency and is a great indicator for players who could outperform their ADP.
Using Jeudy’s averages from his 13 healthy games, Jeudy projected out to 1,256 yards and 87 receptions (126 targets). While these are not elite fantasy numbers, it must be noted that Jeudy did this with poor quarterback play. With improved play from Wilson in 2023, I believe Jeudy could exceed these numbers and have a tremendous return on his current 41.1 ADP on Underdog Fantasy.
THE FINAL TAKE
When it comes to Jeudy, there is a lot of trust involved. You must trust the talent. He was dominant throughout his time at Alabama and he has shown flashes of dominance throughout his first three seasons in the NFL. You must trust Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. These two are the key to an improved offensive situation in Denver and I fully expect them to deliver.
If you can get past some underwhelming finishes to his first three seasons and develop some trust, you may find a diamond in the rough. Jeudy currently has an ADP of WR22 with a late 4th-round price tag. We have already seen Jeudy finish as the WR22 on a frightening offense while missing essentially four games. So, even if you are hesitant about the Bronco’s offense, Jeudy’s value is undeniable and he should be considered at this price.
