Before we hop into this NFL Week 14 DFS DraftKings TNF Showdown breakdown, my name is Rich Xenos (rxendaddy on DraftKings) and I’ve been playing DFS since 2018. I’ve been a big fan of RSJ since the jump and I am excited to contribute to their DraftKings Showdown slate breakdowns.
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I apologize for missing the last couple of Thursday Night Showdowns but, I was on the reserve/COVID-19 list for about a week or so. I’m feeling much better now and I’m ready to dive into this TNF match-up between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Minnesota Vikings.
This should be an interesting game, with both teams needing to win. The biggest news for tonight is the fact Dalvin Cook is expected to play after dislocating his shoulder only 11 days ago. It appears Mike Zimmer is essentially coaching for his job at this point and he wants all hands on deck, apparently. I’m not a doctor but it seems pretty insane to me to rush Dalvin out there with his injury track record, not to mention how well Alex Mattison has looked in his absence. He will still go through the pre-game warm-ups before a final decision is made, so be sure to have a backup plan ready to go if he ends up sitting.
SHOWDOWN CAPTAIN STRATEGY
For captain tonight, my favorite play is Justin Jefferson ($16,500/ $11,000). Other than maybe Cooper Kupp, he’s probably the best receiver on the planet at this very moment and the scariest part is he’s only 22 years old. The sky is the limit for this kid and I expect him to eat tonight with Adam Thielen already ruled out and a pretty soft match-up against a Steelers’ secondary who has given up the 10th-most points to wide receivers this season. He’s seen nine-plus targets the last four weeks and has averaged 144.3 receiving yards over that span. He’s as safe a play as you can get at this point in a game his team desperately needs to win.
I also really like Diontae Johnson ($15,300/ $10,200) tonight. Diontae is as reliable as they come when it comes to targets, as he’s seen an incredible 120 targets through 11 games. It’s safe to say Big Ben trusts him and so should we tonight. Not to mention, Minnesota’s secondary gives up the second-most points to wide receivers.
I want to add a quick note that I think Alexander Mattison is the play at Captain tonight if Cook ends up not suiting up, as he’s flourished in the Dalvin role whenever called upon.
SHOWDOWN FLEX STRATEGY
If Dalvin plays I’m pretty sure I’m going to ignore the entire running back situation for Minnesota and fade both. However, if Dalvin is out, I’d find Kene Nwangwu ($1,600) as an enticing option. If he’s penciled in at the team’s RB2, he doesn’t need to do much to get there. Keep in mind, he only played nine offensive snaps last opportunity in this spot but he saw three targets. Add a couple of carries to that and it should be enough for him to pay off at that price tag.
Najee Harris ($10,000)is a high priority to get in my lineup. I like him slightly better than both quarterbacks, who I happen to also like, but I’m expecting him to see a healthy amount of work like he always does. I expect him to find the end zone and see at least five targets and over 20 carries.
Still, I do like both quarterbacks tonight because both are somewhat discounted due to the great positional players in this matchup. Ben Roethlisberger ($9,000) is especially cheap. I know he’s been horrible this season, but this game has shootout potential and he may be forced to throw the ball early and often.
Kirk Cousins ($10,400) is a little more appropriate but I still like him for the same reason that I like Roethlisberger. As mentioned, this game has a decent chance to shoot out.
For cheaper options, my favorite is Dede Westbrook ($2,200). With Thielen out, I think we can expect a nice uptick in snaps and targets — at least enough to get what you need at his price tag. In order to get all these expensive options, you’re going to have to pay down for at least one punt play and more likely two. CJ Ham ($600) is usually interesting to me as he really just needs a catch or two to get there, which is not out of the question. Also if Ihmir Smith-Marsette suits up, he’s another intriguing play and is only $200.
Don’t be afraid to get weird with a cheaper option in order to fit the studs in there.
SUMMARY & BEST BET
Overall, I think this is a pretty intriguing fantasy slate.
My favorite bet is Justin Jefferson over 92.5 yards. I like the over as well, it’s obviously risky to bet an over on a Thursday game, but I have a feeling this game shoots out and over 44.5 points seems very obtainable to me.
The Showdown game plan is to Captain Justin Jefferson and try and get Diontae and Najee in the flex spots, as well as one of the quarterbacks (Cousins). Dede Westbrook and any of the other intriguing cheaper plays could help save money to get the rest of the studs into the lineup.
Should be a good game, best of luck tonight.
