Before we hop into this NFL Week 8 DFS DraftKings TNF Showdown breakdown, my name is Rich Xenos (rxendaddy on DraftKings) and I’ve been playing DFS since 2018. I’ve been a big fan of RSJ since the jump and I am excited to contribute to the DraftKings Showdown slates.
We have a great match-up on paper between the 6-1 Green Bay Packers and the 7-0 Arizona Cardinals, the only problem is both teams are incredibly banged up. It’s a good problem for DFS though since we have a few cheap options who should have much higher usage rates than usual.
The Packers will be without their top three wide receivers Thursday night (Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard), with two of the three out due to the COVID-19 protocol. On the other side, Kyler Murray was in the medical tent several times last Sunday but will play. DeAndre Hopkins and Chase Edmonds both have questionable tags as well but are also expected to play.
SHOWDOWN CAPTAIN STRATEGY
Assuming Kyler Murray ($12,000/ $18,000) is good to go, he is definitely the safest option to captain. He logged a limited practice Monday which is a good sign for him to play. He is having an MVP caliber season, so if he is out there it’s tough for me to not captain him.
If you’re trying to be different in tournaments, I don’t hate Aaron Jones ($9,000/$13,500) at all as the captain. He is their most talented available pass-catcher and I expect him to have an incredibly high usage rate tonight.
Another one who I really like a lot is Randall Cobb ($3,600/$5,400), who is easily Rodgers’ most trusted receiving option. I also think Aaron Rodgers ($11,400/$17,100) is another interesting route for captainship. Yes, he is missing his top three receivers but it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen him put up big numbers with underwhelming talent around him.
SHOWDOWN FLEX STRATEGY
I will most likely be taking a stand against DeAndre Hopkins ($10,600) tonight, he has not practiced this week and is a true game-time decision so make sure to check back 90 minutes before the game. We all know what Hopkins is capable of, but with the question marks of his hammy and his juiced-up price tag, I will likely stay away from him for the most part.
Assuming Hopkins plays, I still like Christian Kirk ($7,200) and Rondale Moore ($4,800) for those making several lineups. Murray has spread the ball around this season and we’ve seen both explode at different times throughout the season.
Chase Edmonds ($7,000) has one of the higher floors on this slate and I actually think this could be the week he finally finds the end zone. He should be mixed into lineups at his cost.
Trying to predict where the targets end up tonight for Green Bay could be pretty tough. The safest ones are Cobb and Jones. Then, Robert Tonyan ($4,600) is the next safest option and his price tag is reasonable.
After that, it’s up in the air but we have few really cheap receivers who should see a lot more snaps than they’re used to seeing. The first one who catches my eye is Equanimeous St. Brown ($600). That price makes it easy for him to make value. Then, there’s rookie Amari Rodgers ($400) who should also see a good amount of snaps tonight.
Your guess is as good as mine as to which one sees more work but I am confident at least one of the two will be in the optimal lineup, potentially even both. I give a slight edge to St. Brown at this point but it’s a coin flip.
SUMMARY & BEST BET
My overall game plan is to captain Kyler because I believe he is the safest play on the board. Rodgers and Jones are also locked in as parts of my core. Then, Cobb and Edmonds are arguably the top two point-per-dollar plays on the slate, so I am prioritizing both. Feel free to play St. Brown and/or Amari Rodgers because one or both will exceed their respective expectations. If you play both, you could fit Hopkins in your lineup.
My favorite prop bet tonight is Kyler Murray anytime score at +140. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown over his last four weeks after scoring in the first three weeks. He’s overdue to find the end zone and I like the plus odds.
This should be an exciting slate from a real-life and DFS point of view. I am personally intrigued to see how it plays out. Best of luck tonight.
