Led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense averaged over 30 points per game, good for the second-most potent offense in the league, behind Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. With an offense that put up points at such a torrid pace, one would think owning either running back, whether it was Devin Singletary or rookie Zack Moss, would be a good thing. But between inconsistencies, injuries, and Brian Daboll’s desire for a balanced committee, neither running back made a mark in 2020 fantasy football.
None of us at Roto Street Journal subscribe to the “Zero RB” strategy. Instead, we deliver our strategy on “building the RB stable.” However, for those who do get their rocks off on marginal running backs stuck in a committee, Moss presents some serious 2021 fantasy value in one of the league’s most lethal attacks.
An annoying turf toe crept up on Moss during the beginning of his rookie season, which kept him under wraps during the first six weeks. Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic noted in the 13 total games where both running backs were available, Singletary edged Moss in total snaps 488 to 405. But this also accounted for three weeks where Moss played through or was brought along slowly due to the toe injury.
Although Daboll preferred a 50/50 split for most of last season, Moss logged the majority of snaps as the season wore on and the two were healthy at the same time.
“Moss also looked like the more dynamic runner by the end of the season, showing how effective his vision, contact balance and explosiveness could be when there’s good blocking ahead of him,” Buscaglia explained. “If Moss continues that trend, he could push Singletary into a complementary role.”
There were many “ifs and buts” when talking about Moss’ rookie season, such as turf toe, an early game fumble, and a season-ending ankle injury in the playoffs. But according to Buscaglia, Moss had the upper hand in the eight games where things were equal between the two running backs.
Moss out-snapped Singletary 53 percent to 47 percent, logged 20 more rushing attempts, and scored four touchdowns to Singletary’s one.
“Moss was the more impressive running back down the stretch and looked extremely comfortable in his reads and physicality after his toe injury,” Buscaglia continued. “He has underrated receiving skills, he’s their best runner between the tackles, showed a punishing rushing style that routinely maximized attempts and is the Bills’ preferred goal-line back.”
Not to mention the Bills saw what they had (or didn’t have) with Singletary, and traded up to draft Moss in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Although Moss was held out of 2021 OTAs due to the season-ending ankle injury, Sean McDermott said Moss should be back for training camp in late July.
McDermott added that Moss has done “a phenomenal job rehabbing.”
If Moss can stay healthy and eventually take over the backfield (between 60 to 70 percent of snaps), then he could return serious fantasy value for his current ADP. But on the other hand, Josh Allen will continue to steal rushing touchdowns from Moss on the goal line (25 rushing touchdowns since 2018) and he’s checked the ball down to his running backs at the lowest percentage in the league (2.5 percent since 2018).
As it stands, Moss’ Underdog Fantasy Best Ball ADP currently sits at RB36 (104 overall), among the likes of James Conner, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, and Tony Pollard. AKA, potential league-winning lottery tickets who could take over a committee-based backfield.
The Wolf is on par with the industry when it comes to Moss, ranking the second-year back at RB37 (-1 vs ECR) on our 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings & Big Board. Meanwhile, Singletary is considered useless at RB56 (-14 vs ECR).
