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2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts and Values: Top-10 Mid Round Picks Who Could Explode

August 25, 2026 No Comments

2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts: The Importance of the Middle Rounds

Most fantasy football managers obsess over the first or final rounds of their fantasy football drafts. They pour endless research into their Round 1 picks, or into discovering the next great late-round sleepers (i.e. the next Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams).

Yet, it’s actually the mid-round fantasy football breakouts that truly determine titles.

While less sexy, navigating the middle rounds of your fantasy football draft and finding the right 2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts is where you will make or break your season.

Take a look at the following charts of “Top Advance Rates” in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania (via RotoViz) from 2021-2024. These are all the players with 25% or higher “Advance Rate”:

2021:

2022:

2023:

2024

2025:

A total of 111 players had advance rates of 25% or higher since 2021. A whopping 54 of those (48.6%) were middle round fantasy football breakouts, falling in the Round 4 to Round 10 range (37 to 120ish). Whereas your draft slot often determines if you land those Round 1-2 guys (i.e. Christian McCaffrey / Jahmyr Gibbs / Jonathan Taylor in 2025, Ja’Marr Chase in 2024, Tyreek Hill in 2023, Austin Ekeler in 2022), the real edge has historically come from nailing those mid-round selections and finding the right breakouts.

In this post last year, I highlighted nine names that included a few massive wins, like:

  • Drake Maye
  • George Pickens
  • D’Andre Swift
  • Tyler Warren

The other five were Justin Herbert, RJ Harvey, Zach Charbonnet, Jameson Williams, and Ricky Pearsall, who all had very strong stretches at minimum. None of these names were true busts.

Hopefully, we can bat as well in 2026. Here’s a breakdown of my Top 10 2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts from the Mid Rounds. These players are drafted in the 40 to 120 ADP range, and I believe each can explode in 2026.

For over 30 more 2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts, as well as Round-by-Round strategy, targets, and fades check out The Wolf’s 2026 Fantasy Football Guide! Support a small fantasy brand & dominate your draft.

2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence (JAX-QB) – ADP = 89, QB10 (Wolf = 71, +18 & QB7)

Calling Trevor Lawrence a Fantasy Football Breakout may seem like cheating, since he just finished as the QB4 in 2025. Yet, based on his Round 7-8 price tag, fantasy owners aren’t fully bought in… and I think Lawrence may only have been scratching the surface last. season.

I had never really been a Trevor Lawrence guy, but last year, I included him on my QB Sleepers List  because I am a big Liam Coen fan. Despite clear improvements from the jump, the Jaguars and Lawrence had some growing pains. Through 11 games, the Jags averaged 24 points per game – not awful, but just 13th in the NFL.

Lawrence himself was the QB18 in FPPG (16.6), with 3-of-10 games as a Top-10 QB. Fine, but far from a fantasy smash (per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer):

Following a Week 10 loss to the Texans, Coen told Lawrence “to let it rip.” According to ESPN, “Lawrence knew the offense, was making the right protection calls and audibles, but he wasn’t playing as freely as Coen wanted — and needed.”

For those final seven games, the Jaguars averaged 34.4 points per game, trailing only the Rams (35.1). They leapt from 27th in points per drive to third, and 25th in 10+ yard passing plays, all the way to third! 

Lawrence racked up 18 passing TDs and 4 rushing scores, and was the QB1, avg’ing 25 (!) FPPG, outscoring even Josh Allen in this span. He finished 2025 with all-but-one Top-12 performance:

Scariest of all? The Jags did this with Brian Thomas Jr., their most explosive and highest-upside weapon, largely a non-factor. This offense isn’t even close to its final form. 

By all accounts, Lawrence is picking up right where he left off. He’s having the “most calm” offseason, with no injury management, coaching changes, or overhauls to his weapons. Lawrence has expressed “how much more comfortable” he is in Year 2, and that he can play so much faster, with much less stress – he’s able to react to the defense much better now. Beat writers are raving, saying “”Having covered each offseason program of [Trevor] Lawrence’s career, this has easily been one of his best.”

Most importantly, the downfield game, especially with BTJ, is now clicking at a dangerous level. In fact, BTJ is earning “Team MVP” honors in OTAs for the chemistry he and Lawrence are displaying, and the renewed motivation and effort Thomas is displaying.

Yet… no one seems to be buying into the Jags. Vegas projects them to lose the most points per game, dropping from 27.7 to 23.18.  No single player is going inside the Top-50 in Fantasy drafts, within an offense that has already proven it can lead the NFL in scoring… AND still hasn’t peaked!

I do understand partially why Jaguars are so discounted, and it’s because of ambiguity. Even if you do believe that the Jags and Liam Coen will produce sizable and tasty fantasy pies, it’s tough to confidently know who will be fed the biggest slices.

Either way, I am loading up on Lawrence, the head chef. 

No matter who he ends up feeding (as you’ll soon see, I think it’s Parker Washington), Lawrence himself will be racking up the fantasy goodness, assuming he can maintain or even leap from his end-of-season hot streak. At 29.8% Exposure on Underdog, he’s my second-highest drafted QB, behind only Drake Maye.

In Round 7 / 8, Lawrence provides equal upside to the QBs going in the Round 2-5 range, but far less opportunity cost. Even if the offense is just close to the way they finished, Lawrence will destroy this price. Yet, if BTJ improves and/or the offense just continues ascending in Year 2 under Coen, look out. Lawrence and the Jaguars could go bananas.

Brock Purdy (ADP 107, QB13; Wolf = 84, +23 & QB10)

When hunting for QB Upside after Pick 100, we want to look for:

  1. 100+ Rush Attempts a game, or
  2. “McShanny” System guys

Unlike Drake Maye last year or Jayden Daniels the year before, Late-Round Konami QBs are mostly in short supply (although I do have a few Konami QB targets in my 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide).

However, since the “McShanny” System is what we want… why not target the QB(s) playing for the trunks of these trees, especially Brock Purdy.

Since 2023, here are the Leaders in FPG (2023-2025)

1. Josh Allen (24.0)

2. Lamar Jackson (21.9)

3. Jalen Hurts (21.1)

4. Jayden Daniels (20.2)

5. Brock Purdy (19.5) [ADP: QB13]

6. Joe Burrow (19.4) [ADP: QB3]

7. Patrick Mahomes (19.3)

Yes, since becoming the starter, Purdy has been a better Fantasy QB than both Joe Burrow (who goes 4+ rounds ahead of him) AND Patrick Mahomes. 

And Purdy hasn’t been better in just FPPG, either. Per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett, look at how Purdy grades out in a number of statistical categories:

In fact, Purdy isn’t just better than these two studs. He’s been virtually better than any QB in the league in efficiency. Per Ian Hartitz, Purdy is No. 1 QB in the Super Bowl era in yards per attempt, passer rating, and passing success rate.

Ultimately, Purdy has been a Top-3 passer in pretty much any metric, for any route distance, and any layer of the field (especially deep and in the Red Zone). 

Brock Purdy’s 2025 Red Zone EPA per Dropback (0.42) ranks 2nd among all QBs since 2021. Purdy is the only QB in the last 20 years that has completed over 50% of his throws that he has thrown into the end zone. Purdy’s an elite, pin-point Red Zone passer. When you add in Mike Evans, one of the best Red Zone weapons in the game, Davante Adams-style usage feels likely, and Purdy’s TD Ceiling is astronomical.

But he’s not just elite in the Red Zone. Purdy is also incredible throwing deep.

Imagine what he can achieve with Mike Evans and 33rd overall burner De’Zhaun Stribling, who has been the Rookie STAR of the 2026 Preseason.

The fact the 49ers added two elite deep-threats is noteworthy. Per Beat Writers, the 49ers are making a concerted effort for “bona fide return to offensive explosiveness this season.” Purdy wrote adding these “third-level” players is especially important:

“We’ve been able to bring in personnel…The third-level throws down the field are definitely a thing we delved into and looked at this offseason. How can we get those kinds of plays and explosives? In order to get those, you need the right guys to do it.I think we have shown that we have some speed now. From what I’ve seen the first two days, being able to air it out and get guys out in those positions, man, for me, I’m like, ‘Let’s go.’ It brings a whole other dynamic to our offense”

During 2023, the offense they are trying to recreate, “Purdy completed 33 of 57 passes for 1,060 yards on throws that traveled more than 20 yards downfield. His adjusted completion rate of 61.4% on such throws was the best on Pro Football Focus’ record, which goes back over two decades, and his 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio was also superb.”

They’ve lacked the deep weaponry in recent seasons with Aiyuk’s injury and then drama. Even still, Purdy’s 52.9% adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling over 20 yards was second-best.

Thus, Purdy is a phenomenal, efficient thrower in the ways that rack up fantasy points the most: TDs and the deep-game.

Just last year, Purdy posted his best FPPG (22.5, QB5) while each of his WRs missed significant time, and he spent the most time throwing to Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson!

The 49ers are implied to score the 7th most points on the year, while also boasting the 8th best offensive line in 2026 Preseason Composite rankings. Any offense with Shanahan leading the charge is in the best of hands, and, alongside the boosted weaponry, Purdy is in the perfect environment for fantasy goodness. 

The only reason I can imagine Purdy’s falling is because he’s just “boring.” Yet, he was the QB2 during the Fantasy Playoffs (Weeks 15-17), scoring 26.2, 31.9, and 37.9 FPs (32.0 FPPG); only Trevor Lawrence averaged more (33.2). Purdy is such a high-floor pick with a sneaky high ceiling, and I am in love with him in Round 9, whether I already have a QB or not.

2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Running Backs

D’Andre Swift (ADP 49, RB23; Wolf = 37 (+12), RB16)

Last season, D’Andre Swift had as many 20+ FP games (5) as Jahmyr Gibbs.

Granted, the booms weren’t nearly as epic – Swift capped at 25.5 FPs, whereas Gibbs hit 49.9 FPs, as well as 33+ FPs on three other occasions. 

Still, people act like Swift is some boring, zero-upside pick, and that couldn’t be further from the truth. 

Ultimately, Swift finished as the RB14 in Half-PPR FPPG, setting a career-high in rushing yards (1087), rushing TDs (9), and FPs (232 PPR FPs). 

Swift’s efficiency dramatically spiked under his second go-around with Ben Johnson. He turned the 18th most opportunities into the 14th most Half-PPR FPs. Comparatively, Swift ranked 10th in opportunities the year prior, but ranked just RB23 in Half-PPR FPPG.

Swift notably jumped in success rate, ranking 4th among all RBs (47.98%); the year prior, Swift ranked as the RB43 (33.85%). This leap in reliability is likely why the Bears felt no real pressure to add to the backfield this offseason, and what’ll keep Swift likely locked in to the same role.

Additionally, the Bears rank 4th in composite line rankings entering 2026 after a massive improvement last season. Losing Center Drew Dalman to a shocking retirement hurts, but Garrett Bradbury is a fine-enough replacement to an otherwise formidable front-five:

Kyle Monangai undoubtedly impressed as a late-round Rookie RB, but Swift was definitely the top-dog here. He saw 58% of the snaps, 54% of the rush attempts, 49% of the routes, a healthy 14% TPRR, and 61% of the inside-the-five rushes + 60% of the two minute snaps. 

Moreover, Monangai hyper-extended his knee in Training Camp, and could now miss regular season time:

In his absence, Swift “had arguably the best training camp of any offensive skill player.” He reportedly “dominated” during short-yardage work, and has routinely ripped off huge plays like a 62 yard TD in the Bears intersquad scrimmage:

The Bears are Vegas’ 10th-highest projected offense (24.5), but many (including myself) expect them to take a major leap forward in Year 2 under Johnson, especially as exciting sophomores Luther Burden and Colston Loveland take on more prominent roles.

Shoot, they just finished 9th (25.7), and if Caleb Williams can take another step forward, the Bears could become Lions-Lite under Johnson and rank in the Top-5. The ceiling is also astronomical if Ben Johnson truly wants to chase the NFL Scoring Record:

Should that happen and Swift maintain his ~60% usage rates, he would be a low-end RB1. Plus, if anything happens to Monangai or the hyperextended knee lingers, Swift would legitimately be a Top-6 RB as the featured back.

Ultimately, this floor and contingent ceiling is well-worth a Round 5 pick, and one worth reaching for in Round 4 if you don’t think Swift will fall — I have him right on the Round 3/4 turn. He is a phenomenal RB3 for most builds, and the ultimate RB2 if you go WR or TE heavy but want a safe pick that still has league-winning potential. 

Jonathan Brooks (ADP ~122, RB40; Wolf 68, RB28)

Jonathan Brooks is my Top-Choice for a League-Winning RB in this Round 9-11 Range. He presents the perfect combination of Talent + Playcalling, with the upside for Bell Cow usage. I’ve been on this one since February, but I feel even more convicted now.

In 3/3 seasons calling plays, Dave Canales has coached, at minimum, league-winning stretches from his Lead RB. He is fully open to riding a workhorse for 70% of snaps and touches when deserving. While Canales was the OC for the Bucs in 2023, Rachaad White finished fourth in snap rate (78.7%) on his way to an RB10 finish (15.9 FPG). He saw 20+ touches in 8 games and averaged 17 PPR FPPG.

The next year as the Panthers’ HC, Canales similarly rode an underwhelming talent in Chuba Hubbard for a 78% snap share and RB11 finish (16.5 FPPG). For the final stretch of 2024, Canales actually rode Hubbard for a whopping 85% snap share! Chuba even finished as the RB8 in his whole team’s offensive scrimmage yards, with 30% of the Panthers’ total yards. He had touch counts of 22, 23, 26, 29, 30, and 32 during that stretch run! 

Last year, Canales turned more to a committee than his first two seasons. Yet, there were certainly Bell-Cow moments and week-winning performances, especially from Rico Dowdle, who posted 32+ PPR FPs in back-to-back weeks and finished as the RB2 in both Weeks 5 & 6. Dowdle was the RB4 in FPs from Week 5 to Week 11, and 9th in terms of ESPN Playoff Advance Rate (59.9%). 

Ultimately, Dowdle had six games with 20+ touches, and averaged 19.6 FPPG in those, fifth highest among RBs.

Sure, Chuba Hubbard is the “nominal” starter. Just last year, we also already saw this staff turn away from an underwhelming Hubbard in favor of a more explosive back. He’s also missed the majority of Training Camp with a hamstring injury. Even if he’s expected back in Week 1, Hubbard has allowed Brooks to shine.

As long as he remains healthy, Brooks is the clearly superior talent.

Brooks is finally healthy after back-to-back ACL tears, and has looked incredibly explosive all Spring. The Panthers made him the first RB selected in 2024 in hopes of him taking over the lead role, and Canales has already said, “he’ll have a chance to compete to start for this team.”

After the team went away from Hubbard in favor of Dowdle last year, Brooks taking over is easy to envision. He was the runaway No.1 RB Prospect of the 2024 Class after racking up 1425 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs in just 11 games. His rare explosivity and power stood head-and-shoulders above an otherwise weak class.

Per FantasyPoints’ Scott Barrett on Brooks: “He was strikingly similar to Bijan, and Brooks’ 142.1 YFS/G would have ranked as the best single-season mark of any Power 5 RB in the 2024 class. He was was even more involved through the air and only slightly less efficient everywhere else”

Brooks even drew Jamaal Charles comps from NFL Network’s Lance Zierlien! 

To make matters better, if Brooks were in this year’s class, he would rank:

  • 1st in yards per reception
  • 2nd in yards per attempt
  • 2nd in forced missed tackle rate
  • 2nd in total YPG
  • 3rd in yards per route run
  • 3rd in first down rate
  • 4th in yards after contact per attempt

And then consider Hubbard. His 2.3 yards after contact per attempt was tied for dead last among all RBs with at least 100 rush attempts, tied with Woody Marks and Devin Singletary. He broke a tackle on only 6% of his runs while forcing a missed tackle on 4% of attempts.

Meanwhile, in early Training Camp, Brooks is drawing rave reviews. Per NFL Insider Cameron Wolfe, ““Talking to people in Carolina, he’s looked incredible this spring… The hope is early in the season, he can form a 1-2 punch with Chuba Hubbard. But if he is healthy, he can be the lead back of this offense and take them to another level.”

Head coach Dave Canales was apparently getting the same vibe after just one day back on the practice field:

“Really looking forward to, just the hard work that JB has had to do over the last couple of years to get him to this point. He feels great. He feels strong. He looks fast; he looks like the guy that I remember, and I’m really excited for that.”

This complements Canales’ previous praise from February, when he said, ““He feels great. He feels strong. He looks fast; he looks like the guy that I remember, and I’m really excited for that.”

Especially with Hubbard’s injury, Brooks has been the clear lead back throughout camp. While his preseason performances have been mediocre-at-best (8 carries for 23 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 1 catch for 9 receiving yards), I loved seeing him convert a TD from 2-yards out. I wouldn’t be stunned if he’s starting even ahead of Week 1, and certainly he should take over by midseason. 

Brooks was once a truly explosive, three-down threat, and while we haven’t seen that on the NFL field yet, he sure could be that same guy finally getting his shot.

Brooks will be playing for a coach who has an extensive track record feeding Bell Cow RBs and generating strong fantasy production in the process. Brooks presents a perfect blend of Talent + Opportunity + Environment, one that is rarely available this late in drafts. He is my pick to be the RB who absolutely smashes in this draft range.

Kenny Gainwell (TB-RB) (ADP 103, Wolf 95)

Kenny Gainwell was the PPR RB16 in 2025. He landed a juicy 2-year, $14M contract with $9.83M guaranteed contract in a ripe environment with Bucs. And he now goes as the… RB34? 

Yes, without Checkdown Rodgers as his QB, I understand Gainwell is unlikely to repeat his 74 receptions or 85 targets, both Top-4 among RBs last year. Yet, across the past four years, Rachaad White has posted 50, 64, 51, and 40 receptions. 

Meanwhile, new OC Zac Robinson loves dialing up the RB in the passing game. Of course, a talent like Bjian Robinson will command targets regardless of the playcaller. Still, Robinson played a role in Bijan leading the NFL in screen targets last year (30), as well as Bijan ranking top-5 in designed target share among all players over Robinson’s tenure with the Falcons:

Obviously, having a talent like Bijan influences tendencies and results, but Zac Robinson ranks 2nd-best among active playcallers in backfield XFP/G (28.0, behind only Ben Johnson), 6th in rush attempts per game (28.6), and has been one of the most run-heavy playcallers inside the 10-yard line.

This backfield should provide a healthy pie to feed multiple mouths, which is why I am fading the more-expensive RB (Bucky) and heavily targeting Gainwell. Robinson has already suggested a “hot hand” approach here: 

“One guy might get this amount one week, and the next week they may end up balanced — just kinda feeling the hot hand, we’ll see where it goes.” Todd Bowles called Gainwell the “1B.”

With Irving shelved with a shoulder surgery during the offseason, “Gainwell has quickly picked up Zac Robinson’s playbook and has excelled as a receiver out of the backfield as well as a runner with the speed to hit the edge in wide zone and to see the cutback lanes, in addition to being able to run between the tackles in Tampa Bay’s gap scheme. Bowles praised Gainwell for his toughness and physicality, which is more than his 5-foot-9, 200-pound frame would suggest.”

Another report suggested, “Throughout OTAs and into the two mini-camp practices, Gainwell was a constant factor out of the backfield as a receiving threat.”

Plus, Gainwell has flashed his ability to be a true bell-cow. Against a strong Minnesota defense, Gainwell was tasked with featured-RB duties with Warren out. He touched the ball 25 times (19 rushes, 6 rec), racking up 134 YFS and 2 TDs in the process.

This preseason, Gainwell has been rotating at a near-equal amount. Bucky did start the second preseason game and saw the first 3 RB touches, but Gainwell mixed in for more snaps with Baker Mayfield. He will be highly involved.

Ultimately, teams don’t pay running backs $7 million per season to not carry and catch the ball, and the split between Gainwell and Irving will be far closer than their 5-6+ round ADP gap implies. I have been taking a healthy amount of Gainwell, while fading Bucky quite hard.

2026 Fantasy Football Guide

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2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Wide Receivers

Note: I did a whole article on The Next JSN, which focused on Rounds 3-5 WRs that could absolutely erupt. Every one of these would qualify for “2026 Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receivers,” so check that out.

However, I’ll re-post the highest boom potential of them all:

Luther Burden (55 ADP, Wolf = 35, +20)

TLDR: “Next JSN Checklist”

  • Elite Talent? FLASHES, YES!
  • Brilliant OC? UH, YES! Ben Johnson = God.
  • QB Play? YES. Caleb Williams only improving
  • Competition Removal? YES. DJ Moore = big mouth removed (& Zaccheus ALSO gone).
  • Near Every-Down role? YES & Bears showing signs of more 12P & 13P in 2026

Luther Burden probably has the lowest floor, but also the highest ceiling, of all my “Next JSN” candidates.

On the positive, Burden was among the most efficient WRs in the entire league last year. He finished third in the NFL in YPRR (2.71), trailing only Puka and JSN. 

This would rank second All-Time among rookie WRs, and look at the company Burden joins:

The sample size was admittedly small, but Burden also completely passes the eyeball test. He clearly has “it,” and Burden’s tape pops as much as any player in the NFL, especially when the ball is in his hands. The violent nature of Burden’s explosiveness is incredibly rare. 

If you need some blood-flow, watch Burden’s 9 tgt, 8 rec, 138 yard, 1 TD, WR1 performance in a shootout vs. SF. My God, the way he took over that game was special.

The negative? Burden played behind Olamide f’ing Zaccheus for the vast majority of his rookie season, ultimately running just 234 routes (WR95) with 44.6% route participation (WR91).

Somehow, despite just 42% of the snaps, Burden finished with 11 gains of 20+ (tied with Chris Olave), and actually led the Bears with 358 yards produced on gains of 20+. He ranked 16th in the entire NFL in YAC, despite ranking 123rd in snap share. Again, glimpses of Super Stardom.

He’s not just a slot WR, either. Per FantasyPoints Data:

Thankfully, both DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheus are now gone, leaving the Bears with the 5th most Available Air Yards (1555) and the third-most vacated WR targets (149). Ben Johnson has also typically brought rookies along slowly, including Amon-Ra St. Brown himself, who didn’t see meaningful snaps until Week 13 of his rookie year.

By all accounts, Burden is expected to “take on a full-time role and coaches expect him to explode.”

Johnson’s quotes have certainly been bullish so far:

“I’m buying Luther Burden stock right now. … He looks like he’s playing at a different speed right now. It’s been electric. He showed up yesterday, had numerous explosive plays. I loved how in Phase 2 he was finishing every single rep that he took…He’s still developing and growing his route tree. He’s been extremely coachable, so I’m really happy with him.

“I think when we drafted him, we saw an explosive athlete who was really dangerous with the ball in his hands….The question was how can we get it in his hands? The easy things to do are screens or short throws. But I think there’s a lot more to his game that we’ve worked to unlock, and he’s been really receptive to how we can get that done.”

Indeed, even with Moore (and Zaccheus) gone, the Bears feature plenty of mouths to feed, as Colston Loveland is a monster, and Rome Odunze was on his way to a massive breakout before his foot injury. Yet, under Johnson, there’s room for multiple mouths to eat, considering:

  • Ben Johnson’s 4 NFL offenses have all ranked: ✅ Top 9 in points ✅ Top 10 in passing yards ✅ Top 10 in passing TDs
  • Johnson’s 2024 Lions produced: ✅ The WR7 in PPR PPG ✅ The WR26 ✅ The TE9

With Loveland priced at the Round 3/4 Turn, Burden in Round 4, and Odunze in Round 5 / 6, someone will disappoint. I am diving into all 3, but Burden is the name I am clicking the most. 

Lastly, Burden’s true ceiling might be the WR1 if he nails down the No.1 WR in Heavy Personnel. After drafting Sam Roush, Johnson seems to be embracing the 3-TE craze, and he’s the type of playcaller I actually trust to utilize it properly. Burden’s 5.05 YPRR trailed only Puka (6.25) out of 1- and 2-WR sets, besting even #3 JSN (4.84). 

Since the start of Training Camp, the hype was most definitely carrying over from OTAs, if not picking up even more steam:

“Luther Burden III got a TON of targets — inside & outside, flashed quicker route running”

Caleb Williams: “He makes the first guy miss every time. That’s his trait. He catches everything. He’s a friendly receiver to the QB….We all believe in Luther. The whole org…He said it himself, he’s a problem.”

If nothing else, Jared Smola boils it down to an oversimplification that still illuminates Burden’s ceiling:

“Yes, this is oversimplifying it. No, Luther Burden is not likely to match last year’s efficiency in a bigger role. But let’s just have some fun! Give Burden his 0.56 PPR points per route last year on DJ Moore’s 558 routes … And you get 310.5 PPR points. Only 4 WRs beat that total last year.”

Unfortunately, Burden suffered a groin injury. He is set to miss most of the preseason now, but this slow treatment is being labeled “precautionary.” By all accounts, Burden will be ready for Week 1. He was even seen jogging ahead of Preseason Week 1:

Ideally, this injury will cause Burden to fall to Round 5 in 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts, where he’s an absolute steal. Ultimately, I’m still buying Burden in Round 4 though. This requires a significant leap of faith, but I trust what my eyes saw, what the efficiency metrics tell us, and what Ben Johnson can scheme. Burden could be an absolute monster who, like JSN this season, explodes into a “Round 1 No Brainer” come next year.

Parker Washington (ADP = 73, Wolf = 50, +23)

Parker Washington possesses legitimate Top-7 WR Fantasy Upside, and is going off the board as the WR30.

Washington didn’t earn a full-time role until the end of the season. Yet, once he did, the results were monstrous – and the entire Jaguars offense took off. 

Parker Washington finished 2025 with four straight Top-10 WR performances, including:

  • 6 rec (10 tgts), 145 yds, 1 TD, 26.5 FPs (WR3) 
  • 8 rec (10 tgts), 115 yds, 19 FPs (WR9)
  • 5 rec (9 tgts), 87 yds, 1 TD, 19.7 FPs (WR7)
  • 7 rec (12 t gts), 107 yds, 1 TD, 23.9 FPs (WR5)

This amounted to 26 receptions for 454 yards and three touchdowns on 41 targets and 89.1 FPs, good for 22.28 FPPG. This would’ve ranked second behind only Puka Nacua last year, and actually ahead of JSN!

Ultimately, Washington was one of just three WRs with 600+ yards in their last 7 games. The other two? Chris Olave and Puka Nacua!

We referenced how the Jaguars offense didn’t find their swing until the final ~5 games, and Washington earning a full-time role truly was a major catalyst. Over this five game stretch, Parker Washington averaged 101.4 yards per game. No one else was over 42. He averaged 3.65 yards per route run. No one else was over 1.33. He saw over 32% of a target  share, and was the clear Alpha. 

Consider the per-route production and target share when all three Jacksonville WRs were on the field at the same time last year:

Yards per Route Run

1. Parker Washington (3.23)

2. Brian Thomas Jr. (1.58)

3. Jakobi Meyers (1.50)

Target Share

1. Parker Washington (32.1%)

2. Jakobi Meyers (25.9%)

3. Brian Thomas Jr. (21.0%)

Indeed, this is a crowded WRs corps, with BTJ, Jakobi Meyers, and 2nd overall pick Travis Hunter. Yes, Washington was largely irrelevant until Hunter went down. Of course, we’ve seen late-season surges that ultimately amount to nothing. 

I am confident that will not be the case with Washington for two reasons:

1) Liam Coen’s track record with slot WRs

The Jaguars took off when Washington finally took over the invaluable Coen Slot Role. This is a key engine for his offense, which was hunting for the right guy all year. Once Washington became the guy, only the Rams scored more total points than the Jags. 

Look at this history of slot-WR production under Coen:

  • 2021: 102.6 receiving YPG from Wan’Dale Robinson at Kentucky
  • 2022: 22.4 FPG from Cooper Kupp (~WR1)
  • 2024: 19.7 FPG from Chris Godwin (~WR2)
  • 2025: 17.5 FPG from Parker Washington in 8 healthy post-bye games (incl. playoffs) & 22.5 FPPG over final 4 (WR2)

As long as Washington continues to man this spot (and why wouldn’t he after invigorating the offense), I expect elite fantasy production to continue to follow. 

But don’t just take my word for it, because:

2) The coaches LOVE Washington, and he’s operating in a full-time role now:

Based on early OTAs reports, Washington was clearly operating not only as a starter, but as the passing game engine.

Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley said Washington was quite clearly the most productive player on the field:

“I do not know if there was a player who had a more productive practice on Tuesday than Parker Washington. His price is only going to go up, and the long-time offseason MVP looked like he has hit a new level just based on Tuesday’s practice. He caught everything thrown his way and very much so looked like he got the most volume out of the top wideouts.”

Shipley continued in a later report,  “Washington is set to be a core piece of what the Jaguars do in the passing game…Now that he is in a full-time role on offense, there is little question as to what kind of impact he can make..

“By all looks of the last week, the Jaguars are ready to let Washington take his chance and run with it.”

Yet, if you don’t want just my or a beat writer’s opinion, look no further than Coen himself, or Jags’ offensive coordinator Grant Udinski.

Udinski said, ” I think really, really highly of Parker. We think that he’s capable of what he did at the end of last season, and more than that. Our expectation for him is to continue to grow and do even more than he did last year. He’s a highly, highly capable player, who’s capable of even more.”

Coen hinted at even expanding the role, gushing: “He’s done a nice job so far this spring. I thought we saw some flashes early last season, and there was consistency towards the end of the season when he was a dominating presence with the things he was able to do in the slot and also outside for us. 

“I think activating him a little bit, continuing to work on the ball-in-hand stuff that he can do at a high level because of the way he’s built and wired. Continuing to work on the screen game and those things, getting him the ball on jet sweeps and some of those things. And then the complete route tree of slot and outside and doing all those things is a step he can take.”

In a later press conference, when asked about how much trust he had in Washington, Coen raved: “A ton. He communicates what he sees on the field. The relationship between him and Trevor Lawrence has continued to grow and develop. His toolbox allows him to play inside, play outside, and run routes at all three levels. I think his football knowledge has just continued to ascend. I just think his overall knowledge has really elevated over the last year, so that makes it a lot easier to work with somebody and to trust them that they’re gonna do the right thing on gameday.”

Sounds like a guy who’s role is only set to grow, not diminish.

By all accounts, Washington has the skills. His Reception Perception profile compares favorably to JSN:

Plus, Washington’s metrics are equally impressive out-wide, and not just locked to the slot:

With his well-rounded, QB-friendly game, Parker Washington is expected to be the Jaguars’ leading WR in field time and in targets:

This last nugget is particularly important. If Washington truly is the guy in 11, 12, and 13P, he is going to break fantasy at his price. I discussed in The Next JSN series how important Heavy Personnel is for removing target competition and concentrating the offense. Washington in a JSN-lite role would make him an even greater smash than he already is.

As much as I love BTJ’s rookie-tape, I expect him to remain largely a deep threat, and a more important “real-life” presence than fantasy one. Big games will likely be hard to project, even if he’s been practicing far more consistently, and the offense is taking deep shots more regularly. 

If anything, a more productive BTJ should only help Washington find more space underneath. Ultimately, I am betting on Washington locking down that invaluable Coen slot role, and continuing forward on the path of destruction he began last year. He was the catalyst to the Jaguars’ passing game going nuclear, and should that continue all of 2026, Washington genuinely carries Top-5 Upside at a WR40 Price.

Ultimately, I am buying heavily into the Jaguars in 2026, and Washington is my favorite piece by a mile. He’s the single-best pick you can make at wide receiver in 2026 Fantasy, and no matter how many WRs I have, I will be adding him in Round 8 of pretty much every league.

Chris Godwin (ADP: ~89, Wolf 69, +20)

Just two seasons ago, Chris Godwin trailed only Ja’Marr Chase in FPPG (19.7). He hit 22+ FPs in 3-of-7 games, never dipped below 11.6 FPs, and averaged 8.9 targets per game. His 2.63 YPRR ranked as the WR6. Ultimately, Godwin accrued 50 catches, 575 yards, and 5 TDs in only 7 games!

In 2026, Godwin is now falling outside the Top-80 picks as the WR40. Unbelievable!

Yes, Liam Coen’s invaluable slot-scheming played a huge role in that 2024 explosion. Yes, that massive WR2 finish was two seasons ago. Still, I think Godwin could approach that form once again. At minimum, he will destroy his current price.

For one, Godwin will be fully healthy entering 2026. Last year, Godwin was recovering from a brutal dislocated ankle and fractured fibula. He clearly was not himself, and overcompensation led to other injuries throughout the 2025 season.

This offseason, Godwin looks like his old self. Beat writers called him “sharp” and “crisp with the ball in his hands.” Reportedly, Godwin has “spoken at length about how good he feels and where his health is. Training camp will be crucial in the wide receivers room to make a big impression before Week 1, and based on what we’ve seen so far, Godwin looks to be up to the task.

Just yesterday, Mayfield said “Godwin looks like the best version of Chris Godwin.”

As Baker also notes and more importantly, Godwin is returning to the cozy confines of a “McShanny” slot role under new OC Zac Robinson, which reportedly has him ascending to the top of this target totem pole according to multiple sources:

Godwin is still only 30 years old, and will now be two seasons removed from the brutal injury. This return to the slot, and especially in a motion-heavy offense under Robinson, will be massive. New Bucs OC Zac Robinson ranks 2nd in the NFL in dropback during-snap motion rate the past five years (35.1%). 

Per Ryan Heath,  Godwin ranks 3rd in YPRR on plays with during-snap motion over the past two seasons (3.99, behind only Puka Nacua and Nico Collins), including 2nd in 2025 alone (4.02) despite playing injured. Oh, and Robinson talks to Liam Coen every day.

Mike Evans is gone, and the fantasy community seems to be sliding Emeka Egbuka into the clear WR1 role here. Yet Godwin, who goes 5-6+ rounds later, is in the friendliest fantasy role (slot), looks fully healthy, has been the most regular target in early practices, and even has his QB claiming his status as the Top Dog:

“For Mike [Evans] to leave, it allows Chris [Godwin] to step up — he’s always been an unbelievable leader — but for him to really take charge of that room.”

In fact, even in his injury-plagued 2025, Godwin outscored Egbuka in every game they played together once Godwin fully returned in Week 13. Godwin scored 11.5 FPPG over this span, Egbuka just 5.6. Even if you like Egbuka, and there’s plenty of reason to, this ADP gap should not be so massive. Godwin could straight up out-target and outscore Egbuka in 2026, and even if not, has plenty of runway to pay off his 110 price tag.  

In slot-dominant seasons, Godwin has finished as the WR2, WR15, WR8, WR19, and WR2 in FPPG. Even if he’s lost a step, Godwin has very-real Top-15 WR upside at a WR40 price. He is among the single best values in all of 2026 Fantasy, and someone I plan to draft on nearly every single redraft team. In Best Ball, Godwin is currently my highest-drafted WR at 35.7%.

This is among the biggest market mismatches in proven fantasy upside + a clear path to regain it vs. the actual cost. Hammer it.

2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft 🐺(ADP = 74, Wolf = 64, +10)

I am All-In on drafting the condensed Packers’ Passing Game.

After the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, the Packers rank 4th in Available Air Yards (1661), 5th in Available Air Yards share (40.9%), 5th in Vacated Targets (167) including the 3rd most inside-10 (13) and 2nd most inside-10 (50%). A whopping 50.9% of their WR Targets have been vacated.

Indeed, I like Christian Watson quite a bit. He’s featured in my 2026 Draft Guide too. However, I like Tucker Kraft even more, especially at the cheaper price tag. 

I absolutely LOVE Kraft as a player. George Kittle is a unicorn, but Kraft is the next closest comp. He can block you out of the building, get vertical, and destroy you after the catch. 

Kraft doesn’t just pass the eyeball test, either. He’s an efficiency and fantasy MONSTER. Prior to his Week 9 injury, Kraft was the TE1 in fantasy with 16.2 FPPG, which trailed only McBride by the end of 2025.

 Kraft led the NFL in receiving yards per game among TEs prior to his injury, too. Kraft finished the year ranking:

  • 1st in Yards per Rec (15.3!)
  • 2nd in YPRR (2.59)
  • 1st in Yards after catch per rec (10.66)
  • 1st in Yards after contact per rec (3.59)
  • 1st in Yards per team pass attempt (1.96)
  • 1st in FPs Over Expectation 
  • 2nd in Team TD% despite missing half the year!

Also, in the 4 games Kraft was off the injury report, he averaged 23.5% target share (TE2), 85.3 receiving YPG, and 21.1(!) FPPG (TE1)! 

This isn’t a one year-mirage, either. Kraft has always been hyper efficient:

And now Kraft will face less target competition in what could be a pass-happier offense?! 

As such, the stud TE is among my favorite TE bets and a Round 7 smash for me.

Kraft is fully cleared and going full-speed, and will absolutely be in the lineup for Week 1:

He’s already being featued and thriving in camp, too:

If I don’t go elite TE, Kraft is my Number 1 target in the late 6th / Early 7th. He actually goes in the 90-100 range on ESPN, which is just larceny.

George Kittle (ADP = 101, Wolf = 96, +5)

Another year, another Top-5 season for George Kittle in FPPG.

After finishing as the TE3 in FPPG in 2025, Kittle has now finished in the Top-5 in FPPG for eight straight seasons. He’s been in the Top-3 for 6-of-8 seasons, too.

Granted, Kittle will have his work cut-out for him to repeat in 2026 Fantasy. He suffered a torn Achilles on January 11th, and the typical timeline is 9-to-12 months for a full recovery. 

Yet, Kittle is not a typical human. He always defies the injury timelines, and has said Week 1 is his goal. Kittle reportedly “traveled to a Stem Cell Institute in Panama City to aid his rehab from his torn Achilles.” He said he’s already cutting, doing single leg box jumps, and moving around close to full speed; video footage shows him zipping around and looking largely like his normal self.

In fact, Kittle was just activated off the PUP list on August 23rd. Week 1 is, somehow, a very real possibility:

Reportedly, the clean nature of the tear and the fact it occurred higher up help speed up the recovery timeline.

Even if Kittle were to miss, say 2-3weeks, he’d be a screaming bargain at his ~100 ADP (goes 110+ in Best Ball!). He’s always been a beast, but has especially been incredible since Brock Purdy took over.

In all four years with Purdy, George Kittle has ranked No.1 in Fantasy Points Over Expectation. He has been a Top-12 TE in over 70% of games with Purdy as well. 

Yes, Kittle will be far riskier than normal with the Achilles injury. He also will be contending with Mike Evans for looks, by far the best Red Zone weapon Kittle’s ever had to compete with. Between health and Evans’ presence, Kittle will have a tough time continuing the Top-5 in FPPG streak.

However, with the cost now Round 8-9 instead of Round 3 or 4, Kittle is well-worth it. He has as high of a Weekly Spike Ceiling as every single TE in the league. Even if he starts mildly slow, a full-go Kittle for the second-half of 2026 would be well-worth pick 90 (shoot, even if he’s just cooking for your fantasy playoffs!) The fact that he truly seems on pace for a Week 1 debut makes Kittle’s price all the more astounding.

Summary: The Best Mid-Round Fantasy Football Breakouts for 2026 Fantasy Football

Since 2021, 111 total players had advance rates of 25% or higher on Underdog, where only two teams advance. A whopping 54 of those (48.6%) came from Rounds 4-10.

While the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts are often overlooked, nearly 50% of “league-winners” by advance rate were drafted in this range; finding the “Mid Round Breakouts” is among the most important tasks for us on Draft Day.

For 2026, my 2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts that will smash their mid-round price are:

  • QBs: Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy
  • RBs: D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Brooks, and Kenny Gainwell
  • WRs: Luther Burden, Parker Washington, and Chris Godwin
  • TEs: Tucker Kraft and George Kittle

I expect all of these 10 players to vastly outproduce their ADPs, and bring tremendous fantasy value at their cost.

This article is just a sliver from the 350+ pages included in The Wolf’s 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, featuring 200+ player breakdowns, top draft values, busts to avoid, Penny Stock sleepers, tier-based analysis, exclusive cheat sheets, and much more. This is the only guide you need to dominate your fantasy football draft, and it’s the one no one in your league will know about — plus it’s updated all summer long!

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