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Who Should you Draft in the First Round of Fantasy Football in 2026? The Wolf’s Top-12 Picks

August 27, 2026 No Comments

As the old saying goes: you won’t win your fantasy football league in the first round, but you sure could lose it. Which name will you call on as your 2026 fantasy football anchor? Who should you draft in Round 1 of your 2026 Fantasy Football Draft?

Perhaps this season more than any other, I’ve moved around and re-shuffled my Top-12 Fantasy Football Picks regularly this summer. From Ashton Jeanty‘s injury, to Christian McCaffrey‘s “tightness,” to promising hype for fringe Round 1 RBs, I have been constantly adjusting during 2026 Training Camp.

Below, find my current Top-12 Picks for 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts, in order & tiers. I dive deep and give you the fantasy outlook for all twelve of my 2026 first-rounders, in hopes this guides you to making the right decision. You can see my entire Top-250 Fantasy Football Big Board here.

This article is just a sliver from the 350+ pages included in The Wolf’s 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, just updated last night! It features 200+ player breakdowns, top draft values, busts to avoid, Penny Stock sleepers, tier-based analysis, exclusive cheat sheets, and much more.

Click the link here or banner below to learn more and secure your copy today. Your support is so appreciated and helps a small site like RSJ stay free, and a special education teacher to pursue his dreams.

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Round 1 Strategy: Stocking the RB Stable or Hunting for Unicorn WRs

As covered in the “Macro” section of my 2026 Guide, there’s nothing more consistently valuable in fantasy football than a true Bell Cow RB. Yet, there’s nothing more rare than a “Unicorn WR1” that truly separates from the pack.

As such, Round 1 is a constant tug-and-pull of which box do you want to check off. Typically, I come out of Rounds 1-3 with 2 RBs and 1 WR, but the order in which I attack those positions can vary greatly from different draft slots, and depending how the draft goes.

I actually have 15-16 players graded out as Round 1 Worthy, but let’s dive into my Top 12 Picks.

The Top 12: Round 1 of 2026 Fantasy Football

Tier 1: 2026 Fantasy Football Gods & Season-Changers

In my opinion, only two players warrant consideration for the No. 1 overall spot in 2026 Fantasy Football. They are both elite talents, entering their peak years, and set to monopolize touches. Both are near-locks to accrue Top-12 production on a weekly basis, while also offering the ceiling to single-handedly win your week. 

Both also lost competition this offseason, and, despite already producing at league-winning levels, are about to flash upside greater than we’ve ever seen.

Truly, we might be entering one of those “LaDanian Tomlinson” type of seasons where, if you don’t have a Top-2 Pick (and don’t do an auction league), nothing else matters and you sadly aren’t winning without either of these guys.

But which one is the choice? Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Bijan Robinson is a brutal debate. Here’s where I land:

1.  Jahmyr Gibbs🐺 (RB-DET)

On talent alone, Gibbs would be my No.1 overall pick. No player excites me more. No player pops on tape more once he’s going. The explosiveness, the juice, the versatility? Unrivaled.

He’s just beginning to peak, with 1839 YFS, and 18 TDs on a career-high 320 touches last season.

Yet, Gibbs also has an elite fantasy environment. The Lions are projected for the fourth most points per game (26.09), with the third-highest shoot-out rate (58.8%) and average game total (48.62).

Gibbs is in an elite offense with weapons capable of mutilating every layer of the field. Defenses can’t sell out to stop him, and the Lions will be pasting the scoreboard with points. Detroit also boasts the 12th-ranked line in composite 2026 Offensive Line Grades (and 6th-highest graded line by Madden Score) – not the elite unit they rolled out a few years ago, but still in the top-third of the league.

Meanwhile, new OC Drew Petzing has been a boon for run-games. Even with the pathetic Cardinals, Petzing’s Cardinals offenses massively overachieved in terms of rushing efficiency from 2021-2025, only losing to Todd Monken (who, again, had Lamar Jackson + Derrick Henry) by YPC. 

Petzing has operated a more efficient run game than even former Lions OC Ben Johnson over the past several years (even if you remove all of Kyler Murray’s scrambles!) Oh, and Petzing’s numbers are this good despite both James Conner and Trey Benson missing most of 2025:

He uses a ton of unique pin-and-pull concepts that allow his RBs to get phenomenal space. Plus, despite his backfield featuring Michael Carter and Bam Knight, the Cardinals’ finished with the third-most RB targets last year (124, 1 more than Detroit!) and their 20.1% backfield target share last year ranked 7th-highest, only just behind the Lions’ 22.4% (5th-highest).

Worst-case, if Petzing does fail and Campbell takes over, that’ll most likely rocket Gibbs up even further. After taking over for John Morton in 2025, Campbell deployed Gibbs as a true every-down bellcow. Over the 9 games Campbell called, Gibbs averaged 24.7 FPG (~RB1) on 18.8 XFP/G (~RB2) and an 18.2% target share (~RB3). He was a Top-12 RB in 6-of-9 games in this span too.

Comparatively, in Weeks 1-9 under Morton, Gibbs averaged just 62% of the snaps. He never played more than 69% of the snaps, either. Under Campbell, Gibbs hit 69% or higher snaps in every single contest besides one (which was a blowout and he was rested for the fourth quarter). In 89% of games, Gibbs played 69% or more snaps, and averaged a 72% snap share in this span. Campbell also designed far more first-read throws and creative routes for Gibbs, too.

Yet, the biggest reason for optimism is Gibbs’ expected new role as “our bell cow now.”

“He’s going to be our bell cow now,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said Thursday, via MLive. “We’re going to hang our hat on him quite a bit. We’re going to do a lot of things we feel like he does well. I’ve mentioned this before, he can run everything that we’ve got. He can run every scheme that anybody’s ever run.”

Boing.

This is because David Montgomery has been traded away to the Texans. The Lions now vacate the 5th most total carries (161), including the most inside-the-5 (16 total, 61.5%).

In six career games without David Montgomery, Gibbs averaged 27.4 PPR FPPG (!). The 466 PPR FPs pace would rank third all time, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson‘s 2006 (481 FPs) and Christian McCaffrey‘s 2019 (471).

Gibb’s season-long pace in his. career games without Montgomery = 413 touches (79 rec, 88 tgts), 2504 YFS, 23 TDs!

Gibbs’ fantasy finishes in games without Montgomery:

  • 9.2 FPs (Week 3 2023), RB25 – rookie year, still “getting feet wet.”
  • 27.6 FPs (Week 7 ‘23), RB3
  • 29.9 (Week 6 ‘23), RB1
  • 25.4 (Week 16 ‘24), RB7
  • 26.3 (Week 17 ‘24), RB2
  • 46 (Week 18 ‘24), RB1

The only offseason RB addition the Lions made was Isiah Pacheco, on a one-year, $1.81M deal. I like Pacheco fine enough, but he’s far from a one-to-one replacement for Montgomery. 

Moreover, the Lions RBs combined for 530 opportunities (407 carries and 123 targets) last year. This is a massive pie, and even if Pacheco has a slice, Gibbs’ will be seeing the vast majority.

Gibbs actually only had 5 games with 20+ touches last season (less than Chase Brown!). Unsurprisingly though, Gibbs paced all RBs in FPPG with 20+ touches at 25.2 FPPG. His points per snap and touch didn’t drop at all, either.

We’ve already seen Gibbs has the most week-winning boom of any player at his position, especially with steady volume.

Gibbs’ 55.4 PPR FPs Eruption is Week 12 eruption vs. the Giants is the best single-week output by an RB since Gibbs entered the NFL. Over the past 10 years, this game trails only Alvin Kamara‘s Christmas Day 56.2 FP explosion (2020).

Over the past two seasons, Gibbs accounts for five of the Top-15 RB one-week performances — a third of them! This includes #1 (55.4 FPs), #4 (46), #12 (38.2), #14 (37), and #15 (36.8):

There’s simply no player, regardless of position, who’s more consistently explosive than Gibbs. 

In fact, Gibbs accounted four 3 of the Top-4 Ball Carrier Speeds of 2025, according to NFL Next Gen Stats:

With his most consistent snap-share and volume, Gibbs will have a chance to boom even more often than ever before. He’s averaged 20.3 FPPG in 25 career games with 60%+ snaps, and I can’t see any reason besides injury why he’d be below this number for a single-week in 2026.

He also has the easiest-ranked rushing schedule this year, with the Lions as favorites in 14 games – tied for 3rd in the league. They play just four outdoor games all fantasy season, with one of those in Miami, and two others in Week 2 and Week 4, so he should have pristine weather all year.

If there’s any concern, it’s Gibbs’ boom-or-busty nature at times. Even with Campbell calling the shots, Gibbs finished as the RB26 or lower in three of his final six games. He was the RB30 or worse during two fantasy playoff weeks, too. 

Still, with this combination of explosivity, projected usage, a soft schedule, and an elite team / environment, I have to go Gibbs at the 1.01.

While I love Bijan Robinson, and he feels a tad safer / sturdier, especially week-to-week Gibbs’ better environment and untapped upside iis enough to push him to the Clear No.1 Pick in 2026 Fantasy  Football.

2. Bijan Robinson🐺 (ATL-RB)

Bijan Robinson has been nothing short of elite since joining the league.

Yes, Arthur Smith‘s mind-boggling usage led to a “disappointing” RB8 finish during Robinson’s rookie year. Since Smith’s departure, Robinson has finished as the PPR RB3 (2024) & RB2 (2025) while totaling 342 & 377 FPs respectively.

Robinson has epitomized consistency in this span, too. Over his last 29 games, Bijan Robinson has finished as a Top-12 RB a whopping 22 times (76%).

Yes, Robinson’s volume was elite in 2026. Among RBs, he ranked:

  • 2nd in targets (102)
  • 5th in carries (287)
  • 2nd in opportunities (389)
  • 2nd in routes (406)
  • 3rd in snaps (1048) and 3rd in snap share (78.3%)
  • 2nd in Expected Fantasy Points (317.5)

Yet, it’s the insane talent and efficiency that make Bijan truly special.

All you had to do was turn on a Falcons’ game to see Robinson pop. He passes every “eye test” imaginable.

Still, it’s nice when the stats back that up, and Bijan’s efficiency was off the charts last season. Per FantasyPoints’ Data Suite, Robinson ranked:

  • 1st in yards per touch (6.3)
  • 1st in yards per route run (2.02)
  • 1st in missed tackles forced (75 total)
  • 1st in yards after contact (877)
  • 1st in yards after contact per attempt (3.06)
  • 5th in yardage on explosive runs (472)
  • 4th in total explosive runs (16)
  • 5th in FPs over expectation (+61.8 FPs)
  • 2nd in FPPG (22.2)

Robinson’s gains in explosive runs are particularly noteworthy. In 2024, Robinson ranked just 18th in explosive yards with 252 — behind luminaries like Jerome Ford and Najee Harris. His longest run on the season was 37 yards, and he produced just five 20+ yard rushes on the year.

Consequently, gaining explosiveness was the focus of Bijan’s offseason. The results? Astounding.

Robinson nearly doubled his explosive yards (472), 20+ yard runs (8), and recorded two 50+ yard runs, trailing only Jonathan Taylor (3) and TreVeyon Henderson (4). Robinson’s 93 yard rushing TD was the longest recorded by a RB all season.

In short, Bijan presents a crystal clear picture of Individual Talent + Usage + enough Surrounding Talent to be a fantasy goldmine. Last year, this equated to 366 touches (102 tgts!), a league-high 2298 YFS, and 11 TDs. 

Bijan was especially useful in the playoffs, going berserk with:

  • 27 touches (11 tgts, 8 rec), 175 YFS, 1 TD, 1 fumble, 29.5 FPs(RB4)
  • 23 touches (11 tgts, 7 rec), 168 YFS, 1 TD, 29.8 FPs (RB4)
  • 27 touches (8 tgts, 5 rec), 229 YFS, 2 TDs, 39.9 FPs (RB2)

Ultimately, he accounted for a league-high 39% of Atlanta’s scrimmage yards – only 5 RBs topped 30%, and only Achane joined Bijan above 35%. He barely trailed CMC with 45% of his team’s touches, too. In 71% of the Falcon’s games, Bijan accounted for 1/3rd or more of their scrimmage yards. Achane was the next closest at 56%. Bijan was a true engine.

Yet, the scariest part of this all? Robinson hasn’t even sniffed his TD ceiling yet. Robinson’s 7 rushing TDs last year ranked just 20th in the NFL, behind Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Kareem Hunt, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and even his own teammate Tyler Allgeier last season.

Among running backs with 50+ carries, Robinson tied with Allgeier for 26th in the league with 43.5% of his team’s inside-the-five carries.

Allgeier is now gone, vacating 143 carries, including 10 inside-the-five (50%) rushes. 

Best of all? Bijan is really good in the Red Zone, too. Per Jacob Gibbs:

Bijan on carries from inside the 5 since entering the NFL:

– RB1 in success rate

– RB1 in EPA per rush

16 TDs on 30 inside the five rushes (only Rico Dowdle has a better conversion rate).

The Falcons did add Brian Robinson, and HC Kevin Stefanski does seem to value him:

“I think a really, really talented football player, who I think matches exceptionally with what we want to do with him and Bijan [Robinson] — the skill set and how they marry each other, how they complement each other. We want to have an attack that’s not just a one-person attack. You have to be balanced in this league, and I think Brian gives us an opportunity to do that.”

Still, Allgeier is a step-above Robinson. Even if BRob gets a slice, Stefanski has typically generated some strong backfield volume. With an even mildly competent roster, his offenses have ranked:

Rush Attempts: 4th, 4th, 9th, 5th, 4th

Rush Yards: 6th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 12th

Rush TDs: 6th, 5th, 7th, 6th, 14th

More encouragingly, OC Tommy Rees loves throwing to the RB position. Rees took over playcalling in Week 10 of last year, and from that point on, 65% of the Browns’ designed targets went to RBs (compared to 46% with Stefanski calling plays). All of Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson, and Trayveon Williams averaged over 8.0 yards per designed target with Rees.

Plus, new QB and likely Week 1 starter Tua Tagovailoa owns the highest RB target rate in the NFL over the past two years. 

Based on Rees’ and Tua’s tendencies, Bijan is a strong bet to continue his 14.8% receiving yardage market share, trailing only McCaffrey in that span.

Stir in his highest TD ceiling yet, and Robinson is the clear 1.02. In almost any other year, he’d be a lock for the first overall pick, Gibbs is just that worthy and in a slightly better environment. The Falcons’ line actually ranks just ahead of Detroit (11th), but the team ranks just 24th in Vegas’ implied point total (21.6), and just a 17.6% projected shoot-out rate. They are favored in just two games.

Both RBs could easily top 360 touches, 70+ receptions, 2100 YFS and 15-20+ TDs. Gibbs gets the slight edge with a tad higher TD ceiling.

Tier 1.5 – Also 2026 Fantasy Gods & Worthy of No.1 in Full PPR

Note: Puka vs. Ja’Marr Chase is a very, very difficult choice. Most lean Chase, and I understand why — especially with Joe Flacco now backing up Joe Burow, Chase’s floor is substantially higher now.

Still, I slightly lean Puka, despite the higher off-field risk, because I think there’s a peak we still haven’t seen.

3. Puka Nacua🐺 (LAR – WR)

Puka Nacua has been a revelation through three seasons.

As a fifth-round rookie, he set the NFL record for rookie receptions (105), receiving yards (1486), along with single-game rookie records for catches (15) & targets (20) in a game, as well as single-game playoff yardage for a rookie (182 yards). 

As a sophomore, Nacua had an absurd 38.7% target rate (WR1) & averaged an absolutely-insane 3.61 Yards Per Route Run (WR1). He was the picture-perfect combination of insane production and volume, and ultimately trailed only Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin in FPPG (18.8). 

Granted, I had concerns for Puka’s fantasy value entering his third season. First, Matthew Stafford was entering cryo chambers for a back injury that reportedly wasn’t healing. That, clearly, turned out to be nonsense.

Additionally, I was concerned about Davante Adams‘ target-hogging ways, especially in the end zone. That concern proved (somewhat) valid, as Adams led the NFL with 27 End Zone targets and 14 End Zone TDs despite missing 3 contests.

Even still, Nacua finished with a career-high 10 TDs, while also leading the NFL in receptions (129!) and ranking 2nd in receiving yards (1715). Puka remained his insanely efficient self, ranking 1st in yards per route run (3.79), and Nacua again commanded volume more than anyone else with a 36.6% target rate (1st).

If you’re keeping up, that means Nacua has led the NFL in yards per route and target rate in back-to-back seasons. Nacua’s target rate & yards per-route run since entering the league:

  • 2023: 28.7% target rate (6th), 2.68 YPRR (7th)
  • 2024: 38.7% target rate (1st), 3.61 YPRR (1st)
  • 2025: 36.6% target rate (1st), 3.79 YPRR (1st).

Nacua has ridden this volume and efficiency to WR6, WR3, and WR1 finishes in FPPG the past 3 seasons. He’s been incredibly consistent on a week-to-week basis, too. Nacua has finished as a Top-12 WR in 52% of his career games. He has only finished outside the Top-24 WRs in 3 total games, and two of those were for injuries.

Last season, Nacua finished inside the Top-12 in 62% of games. He was a Top-24 WR and hit 13+ PPR FPs in all but one game, which he left due to injury. Per RotoViz:

As long as Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay remain in place, there’s little reason to expect anything less than:

  • 35%+ target rate
  • 3.2+ yard per route run
  • Elite weekly floor & ceiling combo
  • Top-3 overall Fantasy Finish

If you need any more reason to believe in Nacua as THE WR1 in 2026, he was on 29.1% of ESPN Fantasy Championship Rosters. Yes, just having Nacua gave you a near 1-in-3 shot at a fantasy title last year!

Ja’Marr Chase currently goes ahead of Puka, and I jut don’t get it. Chase’s single-week upside might be higher than any player, at any position. 

But it’s not like Puka can’t wreck weeks. In fact, Nacua had the highest single scoring week last season, with 46.5 FPs in Week 16 (12 rec, 225 yards, 2 TDs). Chase’s highest was 38.1 last year. 

Moreover, Puka really didn’t begin blasting off until Davante Adams’ injury. That’s because Adams had been decisively playing ahead of Nacua in 1 and 2 WR sets up until Week 13, in which Nacua took over as the preferred heavy-personnel WR for the final eight games.

Deservedly so. Nacua’s 6.25 YPRR in 1-2 WR sets is actual insanity, and led the NFL by a mile:

  • Puka Nacua – 6.25
  • Luther Burden – 5.05
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 4.84
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown – 3.60
  • Davante Adams – 3.54

Adams did suffer an injury in Week 16, but Puka had clearly surpassed him at this point. His outputs in these games:

  • 11 tgts, 7 rec, 167 yds, 2 TDs, 35.7 FPs (WR2)
  • 11 tgts, 9 rec, 181 yds, 27.9 FPs (WR2)
  • 16 tgts, 12 rec, 225 yds, 2 TDs, 46.5 FPs (WR1)
  • 10 tgts, 5 rec, 47 yds, 15.7 FPs (WR13)
  • 11 tgts, 10 rec, 76 yds, 1 TD, 26 FPs (WR3)
  • 18 tgts (!), 10 rec), 111 yds, 1 TD, 34.5 (WR1)
  • 10 tgts, 5 rec, 56 yds, 11.2 FPs (WR9)
  • 14 tgts, 9 rec, 165 yds, 1 TD, 31.9 FPs, WR1

Yes, he saw 10+ targets in eight straight games, and was a Top-3 WR in 6-of-8 (75%) of those games, including over 30 FPs in four! He scored 229.4 FPs in these 8 contests, which would’ve been the WR8 on the year – in 8 games! 

Moreover, in the 3 games without Adams, Nacua averaged 29.4 (!) FPPG. This puts him on pace for 500 PPR FPs on the year and a stat line of 204 (1) targets, 153 rec, 1972 yds, & 23 TDs. Adams will be 33 years old this season, and dealt with both hamstring and oblique issues last year:

500 FPs would be the most All-Time, nearly 20 points more than LaDainian Tomlinson (481), and over 60 more points than the best WR season of all-time, Cooper Kupp’s 2021 (439.5).

So stop acting like Puka doesn’t have enough ceiling to match Chase. He’s a higher-floor, equal-ceiling prospect with absolute King Maker’s at QB and Play Caller. 

As such, Nacua is my clear WR1 for 2026 Fantasy. In Full PPR, I still go Gibbs and Bijan, but Nacua definitely joins their tier. 

4. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN-WR)

It’s insane that Ja’Marr Chase just led the NFL in targets (186!), trailed only Puka in catches (125), finished as the PPR WR3 in FPPG (19.7)… and yet, his 2025 still felt. mildly disappointing.

Largely, I imagine that’s because of the cost. Chase was the no-brainer No.1 Overall Pick for me and nearly everyone else, largely because of his field-gapping 2024 performance.

In 2024, outscored Justin Jefferson, the WR2, by nearly 90 Full PPR Points. He finished 1st in targets (175), catches (127), yards (1708), TDs (17), and FPs (403 – 4th most ALL TIME!), becoming the youngest player to win the receiving Triple Crown.

Fantasy-wise, Chase had a 72% playoff advance rate in 2024, as well as over 50% advance rate on Underdog for Best Ball.

Ultimately in 2025, Chase still produced phenomenally, passing any and every eyeball test. He’s still my pick for the single-best WR talent in the league today.

Yet, when Chase’s No.1 overall cost gets baked in, he ultimately finished just 24th in ESPN fantasy playoff advance rate with 53.4%.

Among WRs, Chase ranked just 7th in ESPN Advance Rate, trailing Jaxon Smith-Njigba (71%), Puka Nacua (59.6%), George Pickens (58.7%), Davante Adams (58.4%), Amon–Ra St. Brown (55.8%), Rashee Rice (55.4%), and Emeka Egbuka (53.4%).

Obviously, we know Chase brought more to the table than Egbuka. Still, the goal of this game is titles, and Chase went from the guy at earning championships to a guy, relative to his cost.

Nonetheless, Chase remains a Top-5 overall lock in 2026 Fantasy Football. He’s simply that good. Joe Burrow is that good. And the Bengals’ defense will likely remain that bad. This fantasy formula has routinely worked whenever Burrow and Chase can remain healthy, and I expect that to be the case again in 2026.

Additionally, Chase’s worse games are easily explicable: they were all Jake Browning starts:

  • Week 3 vs. MIN = 6 tgt, 5 rec, 50 yds, 10.9 FPs, WR34
  • Week 4 vs. DEN = 8 tgt, 5 rec, 23 yds, 7.3 FPs, WR53
  • Week 5 vs. DET = 10 tgt, 6 rec, 110 yds, 2 TDs, 29 FPs, WR2

Two bottom-three matchups with a bottom-50 QB throwing the rock = a fair explanation for two duds. Another one of Chase’s worst outputs was a 6 pointer in which he was ejected for spitting on Jalen Ramsey.

If you remove all of Browning’s starts (including the 29 pointer) + Chase’s spit game, he averaged 21.9 FPPG. This would’ve trailed only Christian McCaffrey (24.5) and Puka (23.4) in FPPG. Also, in the last two seasons with Burrow, Chase averages 22.56 FPPG.

Beyond this, Chase offers more week-winning, soul-wrecking upside than any single player in the NFL.

Since entering the league in 2021, Chase has recorded a whopping five of the Top-20 highest single-game WR scores. This includes all of the Top-3!

Yes, Chase owns the #1 (55.6 FPs), #2 (55.4), and #3 (52.2) highest single-game explosions, as well as #11 (45.1) and #20 (41.3).

Ultimately, there’s simply no one you’d either be more excited to have in your lineup, or be terrified to face, when Week 17 Championships hit.

As such, Chase remains a Top-3 No Brainer in redraft and best ball. His power to single-handedly shift a single game, alongside a very stable floor, makes him impossible to pass on inside the Top-Five.

Chase’s main risk is Burrow’s injury history. However, the Bengals re-signed Joe Flacco, which is massive for Chase’s floor, and honestly ceiling. They played four full games together (the fifth being Chase’s spitting ejection):

  • 12 tgts, 10 rec, 94 yds, 1 TD, 25.1 FPs (WR5)
  • 23 (!) tgts, 16 rec, 161 yds, 1 TD, 38.1 FPs (WR1)
  • 19 (!) tgts, 12 rec, 91 yds, 21.1 FPs (WR4)
  • 8 tgts, 6 rec, 111 yds, 17.1 FPs (WR16)

His 25.4 FPPG would’ve been the WR1… so if Burrow goes down, at least we know Chase won’t be overly impacted (if not better!)

This sneakily keeps Chase in the WR1 and No.1 overall pick conversation, even though I slightly lean to the RBs and Puka.

Tier 2 – 2026 Fantasy Legends with No.1 Player Upside (but more warts)

This tier features three players who have strong cases to finish as the top player at their positions, but a few more roadblocks to achieving this upside.

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA – WR)

After a concerning rookie season, JSN seemed to enjoy a true breakout as a sophomore in 2024. He leapt from WR48 as a rookie all the way to WR10 in PPR FPs, nearly doubling his yards and TDs in the process.

Turns out this impressive sophomore jump was just the opening act to a truly show-stopping Year 3.

Going mid-to-late Round 3, JSN was among the single-best league-winners of 2025 Fantasy. He finished 4th in targets (163), 3rd in catches (119), 1st in yards (1793), and 2nd in PPR FPs (361.9).

Equally impressive was JSN’s consistency. He was a Top-12 WR in a whopping 71% of his games, dipping below 13 FPs only one time (per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer):

Without any additional context, JSN’s production was already elite. But consider: the Seahawks actually ran the ball more than they threw in 2025, and JSN still led the league in receiving yards.

In fact, JSN accounted for a whopping 44.12% of his team’s passing yards, by far the highest in the league last season. His 35.9% overall target share and 44.6% 1st Read Target share, per FantasyPoints Data, also ranked 1st.

Perhaps most impressive was the diversity in JSN’s production. He led the NFL in yards without leading the NFL in yards on any particular route— but he also ranked Top-6 in nearly half the categories (and No. 2 in 33% of routes!):

JSN was 5th in Yards after Catch (557) yet also 2nd in Air Yards (1794), getting it done at every layer, in every route type. His 3.72 Yards per Route Run trailed only Nacua’s 3.85. Smith-Njigba’s 3.73 yards per team pass attempt was the top mark of a WR in at least 30 years!

Ultimately, JSN’s 2025 performance was one for the history books, and he’s only just entering his prime. As a Round 3/4 turn pick last year, JSN ultimately ranked third in ESPN Playoff Advance Rate with a whopping 71%. This trailed only Jonathan Taylor (72.3%) and Christian McCaffrey (71.9%).

Additionally, JSN ranked 2nd in Championship Roster Percentage at a whopping 25.2%. Yes, just having JSN gave you a 1-in-4 shot at a fantasy title last season.

The only reason JSN is not inside my Top-3 overall? The turnover in offensive play-calling. 

Klint Kubiak is an offensive wizard. Despite a run-heavy approach, Kubiak / Shanahan schemes funnel so much volume for their top receiving dogs when provided an elite option. They maximize motion to shake these top options free. They open up the whole route tree, scheming up oodles of lay-up YAC and deep passes alike.

While new OC Brian Fleury also comes from the McShanahan Tree and has pledged to keep this offense largely similar, I struggle to believe he’ll craft as hyper-efficient and hyper-concentrated of an attack as Kubaik’s.

Ryan Heath illuminates some of these concerns in his 2026 Playcallers Article. Heath notes how “Red zone targets are a predictive stat. Even more so than air yards and receiving TDs. 

Of the 27 WR seasons (min. 8 games) to average 18.0+ FPG since 2021, 22 saw >1.0 red zone target per game. The group averaged 1.45.

JSN averaged exactly 1.0 red zone target per game in 2025.”

Without Red Zone volume, JSN relied on incredible deep-ball efficiency – he scored 92.9 FPs (26%) on 20+ yard throws. Thankfully, this has been a Sam Darnold specialty, as the QB ranked 52.1% highly accurate throw rate on attempts of 20+ yards downfield ranks 1st of 149 qualifying QB seasons

This was also a Klint Kubiak specialty:

Notably, however, WRs #1,2, & 4 were all Darnold weapons, so this is a real strength, and hopefully keeps any regression to a minimum.

Ultimately, we know Mike Macdonald wants a run-first identity. He fired Ryan Grubb for passing too much, and followed up with an offense that ranked 2nd in rush rate (50% of plays) and 4th in rush attempts per game (28.9).

Can we trust another Fleury to maximize the efficiency of this small Aerial Pie as much as Klint Kubiak did? Even though he’s from the same coaching tree, it’s not a given and it’s quite rare for an offense to be this run heavy and still feature a Top-3 Fantasy WR. 

Smith-Njigba averaged 21.2 FPG on just 16.2 XFP/G last year (making him the ~WR7 by volume). His +5.0 FPOE was tied for the 5th-most by a WR in the Fantasy Points Data era, per Heath.

Stir in Rashid Shaheed increasing his usage and role, and JSN seems a near-lock to regress from his insane 2025. The Aerial Pie will likely remain small, not as tasty, and now has another explosive mouth at the table to share with.

Nonetheless, JSN is entering the peak of his career, and is a truly special talent. Fleury is unlikely to recreate Kubiak’s magic, but he at least comes from the same lineage, and has been already seen utilizing tons of presnap motion. 

If you’re OK with stomaching risk, Christian McCaffrey probably deserves your No.5 pick consideration. However, I don’t trust CMC following his monster workload (as you’ll see below). I prefer JSN’s balance of floor and ceiling here. 

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown🐺 (DET-WR) 

Amon-Ra St. Brown may not be the “sexiest” first rounder. He is, however, among the safest by a mile. Across his career, St. Brown has played in 83 of 85 possible games (97.6%). The Sun God’s ability to gut out injuries and still play at an elite level is simply unparalleled in the NFL.

Not only is ASB always available. He’s consistently among the best WRs in the game.

He has finished as the PPR WR7, WR3, WR2, and WR3 across his last four-seasons. In all four, he has posted 140+ targets & 106+ receptions.

Cut down to his past three years, and St. Brown has been even better.

He’s been a Top-3 WR in Full or Half PPR for three straight years. He has finished Top-5 in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs in three straight years! ranking No.2 in receptions & Top-5 in yards in back-to-back years.

Understandably, St. Brown entered last year with some question marks. Ben Johnson left for Chicago, and the offensive guru was known for funneling production to the slot. Jameson Williams continued to ascend. Jahmyr Gibbs’ role continued to grow.

Worry not — ASB posted more FPs (324 > 318), targets (175 > 142), catches (117 > 115), yards (1401 > 1263), and TDs (12 > 11) without Johnson.

St. Brown maintained his elite consistency, too, with 41% of his performances finishing Top-12, and a whopping 76% in the Top-24 WRs.

His mind-meld chemistry with QB Jared Goff is simply too strong, and St. Brown’s Top-3 ceiling will endure nearly any play-caller changes or surrounding player ascensions.

Since he became a starter in Week 13 of his rookie season, St. Brown has now finished:

  • Top-12 in 33-of-72 games (46%)
  • Top-24 in 49-of-72 (68%)
  • Dropped below 10 FPs just 10 times (14%)

St. Brown isn’t just a floor play, either. He hit a new weekly ceiling, setting a career-record in Week 15 vs. the Rams with 18 targets, 13 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TD and 41.4 FPs. 

He’s hit 30+ FPs a whopping 9 times since becoming a starter, too.

Sometimes, the league-winning moves are the safest. Getting a Set-and-Forget Top-3 Seasonal WR, with elite consistency + splash week upside, and consistent “Unicorn WR1” status… all towards the end of Round 1? A no brainer.

7. James Cook (RB-BUF)📈

Remember when James Cook was doomed in fantasy because he couldn’t score TDs with a vulture like Josh Allen?

In his first two seasons, Cook rushed for a meager 4 total TDs. In the two seasons since, Cook has rushed for 28 TDs.

For context, only Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs have rushed for more scores in that span.

Unsurprisingly, Cook has been an easy Top-10 RB in back-to-back seasons, finishing as the RB8 in 2024 (250 FPs) and RB6 in 2025 (292 FPs). He’s 4th in YPC across the last 3 seasons (4.98 YPC), trailing only De’Von Achane (5.62!), Jahmyr Gibbs (5.3), and Derrick Henry (5.13).

Cook also won the rushing crown last year (1621 yards), finishing third in rushes (309) and 5th in total TDs (14) on the year. Cook also ranked 1st in Rush Yards over Expected (358)

Given his Round 3 price tag last year, Cook was easily one of 2025’s League Winners. 60.6% of teams with Cook made the playoffs in ESPN, 8th most among all players and 6th among RBs. He also was on 18.2% of Championship Rosters, which was 7th among all players and third among RBs.

Ultimately, Joe Brady being promoted to head coach feels uninspiring for most of the Bills’ roster, but this continuity a best-case scenario for Cook. No team ran the ball more than Buffalo (32.1 attempts) in 2025, and Brady seems committed to “establishing the run” even to a fault. 

While having a QB like Josh Allen helps, Brady also has ranked 11th, 9th, and 10th in Non-QB FPs the past three years, and 10th, 6th, and 5th in total FPs.

Sure, it’s questionable that Brady chooses to make Cook his offensive engine instead of Allen, the most dangerous weapon in football. Perhaps some of this was a directive from the defensive-minded Sean McDermott, and Brady will unleash a more aggressive, Allen-centric attack in 2026.

Either way, Cook fantasy owners shouldn’t complain. A higher scoring unit would only help boost Cook’s massive TD upside (5th most last year). Ultimately, he was a Top-12 RB in 59% of his games, and Top-24 in a whopping 82% of contests (per RotoViz):

The main roadblock to Cook truly wrecking leagues has been his lack of receiving usage. He saw only 40 targets last year, which ranked 26th among RBs. 

This number is especially concerning given the Bills’ lack of reliable pass-catchers. Back-up RB Ty Johnson had just 7 fewer targets than Cook (33 total).

Doubly odd, Cook’s prospect reports often praised his receiving ability. Cook also averaged a big 10.9 yards per catch on 67 college grabs.

As a sophomore in the NFL, he racked up 54 targets, 44 receptions, 445 yards (8th among RBs), and 4 TDs as a pass-catcher, and seemed to be blossoming into a true three-down RB. He has averaged a relatively modest 32.5 catches across his four NFL seasons, including 33 last year. Cook ranked just 38th in RB route share last season (min. 5 games), at 37.1%. 

Yet, per Jared Smola, Cook’s career 9.0 yards per catch ranks fourth among 62 RBs with 50+ catches over the last four seasons. Cook’s yearly finishes in yards per route among RBs with 30+ targets:

  • 2022: 15th out of 43
  • 2023: 6th out of 43
  • 2024: 21st out of 37
  • 2025: 20th out of 40

Finishing as the RB6 in PPR FPs, despite ranking outside the Top-20 in targets and catches, is quite impressive. However, If early OTAs are any indication, Cook may have more receiving work added to his plate, which would unlock massive upside – potentially to pace the position in fantasy-scoring. 

The Bills brought Pete Carmichael over from the Saints to be their offensive coordinator. He spent 19 of the last 20 seasons working with Sean Payton, whose offenses regularly featured RBs in the passing game, from Reggie Bush to Darren Sproles to Alvin Kamara. Buffalo Beats expect this to unlock some real receiving upside from Cook

WGR550’s Sal Capaccio: “Pete Carmichael’s gonna have a really interesting influence and say in one specific area … I do think the RBs might be more involved in the passing game.”

Syracuse.com’s Matt Parrino: “I think one part of the evolution of this offense with Carmichael here now to bring maybe a little bit of that Saints offense to this offense is getting Cook more involved in the passing game. … I think Carmichael’s biggest fingerprint is going to be maybe in the running back passing game.”

James Cook in an Alvin Kamara inspired role would be truly league-shattering. If Brady decides to evolve Cook’s role and feature him as a receiver more, Cook has the upside to leap into the Top-3 overall. He certainly has a 50-60 catch season within him, and this would be the missing puzzle-piece to a truly “had-to-have it” season.

It’s not like Brady is opposed to throwing to RBs, either.

Prior to his time in Buffalo, Brady had 2 seasons calling plays for Carolina (2020 & 2021). In 2020, a creature named Mike Davis ranked 4th in the NFL with 70 targets (in just 12 starts), and the Panthers ranked 8th as a team with 114 RB targets.

In 2021, the Panthers ranked 2nd with 140 RB targets, despite CMC playing just 7 games. Ameer Abdullah even saw 49 targets! If Brady can scheme up 70 targets for Mike Davis, who’s to say he can’t do the same for Cook?

Carmichael himself suggested an increased pass-catching role for Cook:

Thus, Cook represents a phenomenal balance of a safe, solid rushing (and fantasy) floor with the upside to truly destroy souls if his role evolves, as the tea leaves suggest. His TD upside will always be sky-high within a Josh Allen offense. His offensive line ranked 6th by PFF last year and is ranked 6th in 2026 Preseason Composite Rankings. The Bills rank fifth in Vegas’ implied points total (26.6) and tied for third in shootout Rate (58.8%). Cook’s environment is elite.

With this continuity, there’s little reason to expect anything worse than his RB8 or RB6 finish from the past two years. If Cook gets more receiving work, he could challenge the Top Dogs for supremacy.

8. Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB)

Jonathan Taylor joins JSN and CMC on the short-list of the best picks in all of 2025 Fantasy.

Despite falling to Round 2, Taylor was the RB4 in PPR FPs (364), RB2 in Half-PPR (341), and RB1 in Standard (318). He was the “Saquon Barkley of 2025”– a Round 2 RB that launched paths to fantasy titles.

But did he help owners truly bring home the gold?

Through 10 Weeks, there wasn’t a single better player than Jonathan Taylor, PPR or otherwise. Taylor had racked up 273 PPR FPs, nearly 30 more than the next closest McCaffrey among ALL PLAYERS.

Using RotoViz’s Game Split app, we see Taylor was on pace for:

  • 2378 YFS (1936 Rushing, nearly 2K!)
  • 347 touches (26 receptions)
  • 29 TDs (!)
  • 466 FPs (27.4 FPPG)

That amount would’ve ranked THIRD ALL-TIME!

But look at how brutal the final 7 games were. 12.91 FPPG and a peak of 17.4 FPs (his only Top-12 finish in the final 7 games). This would’ve ranked as the RB20 on the year.

The crucial question becomes: why the fall-off?

Daniel Jones‘ injury is easy to blame, and likely the most correct answer.

Through Week 10, the Colts were 8-2. The offense was HUMMING, ranking 1st in the league with 32.2 points per game. The Lions ranked second with 29.9.

As the engine of this juggernaut, Taylor was the guy you had to have. He was even in the MVP conversation, and seemed like a shoo-in for the offensive player of the year.

70% of Taylor’s games from Week 1-10 ranked in the Top-12. Four of them ranked No.1. He topped 30+ FPs in 5-of-10 games!

Jones himself was cooking, too. He was the QB5 in FPs, trailing only Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen.

Then… disaster struck. Following a Week 11 Bye, Jones sustained a broken fibula vs. KC. Jones tried fighting through this, but he, the offense, and ultimately Taylor were never the same for the last 7 games.

The Colts lost all 7 final games. They averaged just 20.7 points per game, 26th in the league. Jones succumbed to a Week 14 Achilles tear. Taylor was just the RB23 with a meager 12.6 PPR FPPG from Week 12-18. He posted just one RB1 Performance the rest of the way, with a high of 17.4 FPs.

Hopefully, the answer is as simple as no Daniel Jones = crumbling Colts Offense = crumbling JT Fantasy Season.

But what if Taylor ran out of some gas after a MASSIVE early-season workload?

Even if not, Jones tore his Achilles quite late. The current expectation is Jones is “cleared to do everything” ahead of training camp, which is promising. Achilles’ recoveries have become far faster in recent years, too. 

Plus, who are the Colts going to relieve Taylor with? His NFL-high 323 rushes feel safe, after the only Colts’ RB addition was 7th Rounder Seth McGowan. Over the last two years, the next-highest rushing total from a Colts’ RB is 159 yards (lol).

Sure, the RBs coach can say, “We definitely need to find ways to take some of that workload off him.”

Yet, in that same report, HC Shane Steichen said, “”Obviously, he’s a hell of a player..it’s hard to take him off the field when he’s running so good.”

Owners might worry about age and mileage, but Taylor just turned 27. Per 4for4 Fantasy’s “Production Curves,” RBs continue peak performance right through their Age 28 Season:

Yes, back-to-back seasons of 300+ carries is a lot of tread, and only Derrick Henry has more seasons of 300+ carries since Taylor entered the league in 2020. But like Henry, Taylor is a true clydesdale capable of shouldering the work. Also like Henry, Taylor is “renowned for his brutal offseason training regimen designed to prepare his body to handle the rigors of playing one of the game’s most physical positions.”

Despite the heavy workloads, Taylor has played 31-of-34 games the past two years.

The Colts boasted the No.2 Offensive line in the league per PFF, and maintained most, though losing mauler Braden Smith could hurt. Still, the line is ranked 9th in Composite Preseason Rankings. 

Hopefully, the Colts outperform their Vegas expectations. They are projected to rank 17th in PPG (23.28), which they should destroy if Jones is healthy (No.1 offense in points until his injury).

More importantly, however, are wins. The Colts are favored in just 6 games, and Vegas has the Colts O/U at 8.5 wins; another illuminating split via the amazing School of Scott Podcast: 

“In wins, Jonathan Taylor averaged 31.5 fantasy points per game. In losses, he averaged 12.4. So basically, the most valuable running back in fantasy by like eight points versus just like run of the mill, high-end RB3 in losses.”

This is a massive discrepancy, and highlights both Taylor’s limitless ceiling but terrifying floor that comes with his game-dependency.

Ultimately, Taylor is still in his prime. No player led more teams to the ESPN Fantasy Playoffs than Taylor, with a 72.3% advance rate. Indeed, his Round 2 price buoyed that number.

Still, if Daniel Jones continues to trend the right way, Taylor will be well-worth a Round 1 pick. He trailed only CMC in team touch share at 46.9%, as well as in Red Zone touch share at 52.5% – which was also his lowest total in the past 3 seasons. Even though he led the NFL in team TD share (40.8%), there’s shockingly more TD meat-on-the-bone if Jones can get healthy and Taylor approaches his career average of 58% Red Zone touches. 

9. Christian McCaffrey (SF-RB)📉

McCaffrey absolutely warrants “Tier 1 – Fantasy God” consideration. If you promised me 17 games again, CMC would belong 1st Overall.

How could you not? CMC literally just scored more PPR Fantasy Points (416.6) and averaged more FPPG (24.5) than any player, at any position. Some illuminating comparisons

  • QB1 = Josh Allen – 374.6 FPs, 22 FPPG, (42 less than CMC)
  • WR1 = Puka Nacua 375 FPS, 23.4 FPPG (41 less than CMC)
  • RB2 = Bijan Robinson 370.8 FPs, 21.8 FPPG (46 less than CMC)

Yes, CMC was significantly better than every other Top Scorer in 2026. But that should be no surprise. Over the past seven years, Christian McCaffrey has either:

A) Finished as THE RB1, OR

B) Missed half or more of the season.

When CMC hits, he’s not just getting on base, either. It’s a Grand Slam. Every time.

So much so, that McCaffrey has three of the Top-20 ALL TIME PPR RB Fantasy Seasons. His 2019 ranks #2 (471.2 FPs), trailing only LaDanian Tomlinson‘s legendary 2006 (481.1 FPs, 31 TDS!).

Additionally, McCraffrey’s 2024 ranks 9th all-time (416.6), and his 2023 was 17th. Yes, in his two full seasons with the 49ers, CMC has posted Top-20 All Time finishes.

If you shrink the sample to the last 10 years, McCaffrey has the No.1, No.2, No.4, and No.6 spots for most PPR points in a single season among RBs.

Yes, CMC owns 67% of the Top-6 RB Seasons of the last decade, joined only by David Johnson and Saquon Barkley.

McCaffrey has been the definition of a Power Law Fantasy Player for his entire career. In 2026, 71.9% of teams with CMC made the playoffs in ESPN leagues, which trailed only Jonathan Taylor (72.3%) by a pube.

CMC’s usage has always been insane, and last year was some of the best of his career. He hit 20+ touches in 13 games, the most among all RBs. He had a snap rate of 70%+ in 16 games, tied with Taylor for the most. He also had 20%+ target share in 11 games, which is insane for an RB. 

McCaffrey also saw a whopping, league-high 64% of the 49ers’ inside-the-10 touches last year – not just among RBs, among ALL players (just ahead of Derrick Henry). McCaffrey’s 95 Red Zone touches were the most of any RB over the past 10+ years. 

Ultimately, CMC saw a career-high 413 touches last year, and there is not a clearer picture of a Bell Cow in the league.

The only two reasons McCaffrey’s not at Number One Overall go hand-in-hand: age (mileage) and risk. There quite literally isn’t a more obvious “win you or lose you your league” pick for seven straight seasons:

McCaffrey will be 30 entering the 2026 Fantasy Season. The 30 year-old Age Cliff for RBs has been known for decades. Indeed, anomalies like Derrick Henry and Frank Gore exist. Given his versatile skillset, McCaffrey is an easy bet to be an anomaly himself.

If age was all he had going against him, McCaffrey would be an easy Double Down. Yet, the same Curse that nipped down 2024’s RB1 also lingers with McCaffrey, to an even greater extreme:

THE CURSE OF 400+ TOUCHES!

McCaffrey finished the regular season with a whopping 413 touches (311 carries, 102 receptions) on 440 opportunities. When you add in two playoff contests, he’s up to 449 touches. That would tie Demarco Murray‘s 2014 for 6th most ALL TIME.

Since 2010, there have been 17 RBs with 370+ touches. All but one of these RBs fell in fantasy production, with 14-of-17 dropping by at least 50+ points and 11-of-17 dropping by 100+ points. 

The outlook is even worse for 400+ touch RBs. In the Super Bowl era, 35 RBs have hit 400+ carries in a season. 31-of-35 scored fewer points (88%), and no RB scored more since 2000. The average drop in FPs the next year was a whopping 141. None have finished higher than RB15 since 2003:

Granted, touches and carries are different. But McCaffrey is undoubtedly a high mileage back.

The last time he personally saw 400+ touches was 2019. The following year, he hit just 76 touches, and only 136 the year after. His next highest touch count was 339 in 2023, and CMC hit just 65 in the next season. McCaffrey’s risk is so clear, and very real.

Additionally, his best days are clearly behind him. McCaffrey may be as crafty as ever, especially in his routes.

Yet, his homerun explosivity is long gone. He ranked 51st in YPC (3.9). Among RBs with 50+ carries, CMC ranked 42nd in explosive run rate (3.5%) per FantasyPoints’ Advanced Rushing Data, below Chris Rodriguez, Kimani Vidal, David Montgomery among others.

CMC also wasn’t great rushing on a down-to-down basis. He also posted a negative Rushing EPA (-0.07), which ranked 40th among 64 RBs with 50+ carries, and his 39.23% Success Rate ranked 42nd, below Malik Davis, Ollie Gordon, and Tyler Allgeier, among many others.

Still, when available, no player has a more consistent role or steadier production. McCaffrey was a Top-12 RB in 82% of his games last year, with his lowest score (9.8) coming against the brutal Texans’ run defense.

Extend this even further to his time with the 49ers. He was acquired ahead of Week 8 in 2022. If you remove 2024’s injury-plagued season, CMC has played 43 games with the 49ers. Here are his outputs per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer:

In his 43 games with Kyle Shanahan, McCaffrey has produced the following totals:

  • 35-of-43 games have been Top-12 (81.3%)
  • Hit 20+ PPR FPs in 27-of-43 games (63%)
  • Been a Top-5 Weekly RB in 23-of-43 games (53.4%)
  • His two healthy seasons rank inside the Top-20 all-time, and inside the Top-4 of the last 10 years

Obviously, I don’t feel great about CMC’s 2026 odds to stay healthy if I have a player of this caliber down at nine. I originally had him at 6th overall, but his two week absence from Training Camp due to “tightness” has me a bit spooked.

Indeed, CMC is back in practice. According to him, this was all planned load management: “This was kind of part of the plan from the jump…Was to ramp up pretty big, get 9, 10 practices in, kind of come back down, and then ramp back up so we’re fresh for the duration.”

For what it’s worth, I also never seem to get CMC right — every year I take the plunge, CMC gets hurt. All this San Francisco substation talk has me a little queasy too.

Still, the value of CMC’s season-winning upside far outweighs the glaring downside. He will absolutely be among 2026’s more influential players, for better or for worse.

Tier 3 – Remaining Round 1 Talent

This is where things get really tricky, especially following Ashton Jeanty‘s ankle injury.

There is a group of 6-7 RBs, most who fall into Round 2, that will likely swing leagues. They also keep me up at night, as I love all of them, and have trouble picking and prioritizing.

Regardless of how you sort them, I value finding 1-2 true Bell Cows more than the typical Round 1 lock WRs (CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson) who go in this range. I actually prefer AJ Brown to both of those WRs too, and will break that down in a future article.

For now, let’s round out the Top-12 with my Top-3 remaining RBs:

10. Ken Walker 🐺(RB – KC)

Update (8/26): Kenneth Walker has missed a couple practices with a “swollen ankle” and will rest in the Preseason Finale alongside the other starters. He is expected to be “fine” for the regular season though. He is still my 10th overall player & favorite Round 2 RB target, but Hampton is making a compelling case:

Kenneth Walker may have been the single biggest fantasy riser of the entire NFL offseason after signing a three-year, $43.05 million deal with the Chiefs (including $28.7 million fully guaranteed). He currently falls to the mid-or-late second round, but I rank him as a first-rounder in 2026.

In his new home, Walker explodes into my Top-12 overall. Given his mid-to-late second-round price tag, Walker will likely become a 2026 Fantasy Football staple of mine. I view him as the 2026 version of Jonathan Taylor (2025) and Saquon Barkley (2024), the Round 2 RB who breaks fantasy.

Interestingly enough, ESPN’s Nate Taylor noted, “The Chiefs are hoping Walker’s impact is similar to what happened when Saquon Barkley joined the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024. 

“Walker will be asked to lift the Chiefs’ offense more than any running back before in the Mahomes era, which began in 2018…the Chiefs have never had a feature back capable of carrying the offense at times. The Chiefs signed Walker to be that player.”

This fit could not be more perfect. Quite literally, because of the Chiefs, NFL defenses have evolved to feature more two-high safeties to take away explosives and encourage teams to run. 

In fact, throughout Mahomes’ era, Chiefs running backs have faced the lightest boxes in the league (35.9% of attempts). 

Yet, by rolling out complete nobodies at RB for the better part of a decade, the Chiefs have never made teams pay.

Despite the favorable set up and a well-above average line, Kansas City ranks dead-last in explosive run rate since 2018. Kansas City was also the only team in the NFL last season not to have a running back average 4.0 yards per carry. Pacheco and Hunt combined for only one rushing attempt that gained more than 20 yards, which also ranked last. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs have three total 20+ yard runs. 

For comparison, Walker alone has 15 runs of 20+ yards over the past two seasons. In that span, the Chiefs have ranked dead last in missed tackles forced per carry (.09); Walker has forced more missed tackles per carry than any RB during that time (0.28 in 2025, 0.31 in 2024).

Since joining the NFL, more than 12% of Walker’s rushes have gone for at least 10 yards, including 15% of his carries in 2025. Only De’Von Achane (16.8%) and Blake Corum (15.9%) were more explosive than Walker on the ground.

Last season, Walker forced a missed tackle on 30.2% of his touches, the third-highest rate among running backs in the NFL who had a minimum of 150 touches, according to Next Gen Stats, and was fourth in percentage of runs that gained 10 or more yards. 

When provided 1+ yard before contact, Walker is especially dangerous. 

Per Jacob Gibbs: Over his four-year career, Walker ranks 4th in YPC (7.4) when provided 1+ yard before contact, trailing only De’Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry in that span:

On this same list, out of 33 qualifiers, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco rank 33rd and 32nd respectively.

Last year, Walker trailed only Achane in explosive run rate when provided 1+ yard. With a mauling interior line, the Chiefs should undoubtedly help provide that bit of space far more regularly:

In short, Walker can punish the light boxes and maximize the Chiefs’ impressive line play in ways Hunt and Pacheco never could. Walker can also transform how defenses must play the Chiefs. I expect multiple 50+ yard TD runs here, and for Walker’s 4.38 forty (97th percentile) & 97th size-adjusted speed score to be fully on display. 

GM Brett Veach cited big plays and maximizing the Chiefs’ line play as the main attraction for Walker’s massive deal, noting:  “When he squares his shoulders, he runs with power [and] runs with violence but also has some elusive qualities. When you combine a back like that, and you have as talented an inside three [offensive linemen] as you do, it would make sense to want to go out there and impose your will on other teams’ defensive lines.

“Certainly, we want to get more explosive in the run game,” Veach said. “It would take a lot of pressure off of Pat.”

Mahomes is also a huge fan. In fact, throughout the Seahawks’ playoff run, he was texting Veach, “Did you see that play?” ” “If we could get Walker in our offense…”

How could anyone not be impressed? Those final four games without Zach Charbonnet illuminated Walker’s true ceiling:

  • 20 touches (4 rec), 133 YFS, 17.3 FPs (RB10)
  • 22 touches (3 rec), 145 YFS, 3 TDs, 35.5 FPs (RB1)
  • 23 touches (4 rec), 111 YFS, 1 TD, 21.1 FPs (RB1)
  • 29 touches (2 rec), 161 YFS, 18.1 FPs (RB1)

Over those three playoff games, Walker produced 417 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns.

In the Super Bowl, Walker kept evading the Patriots. He became the first player with more than 100 scrimmage yards in the first half of a Super Bowl since former Rams receiver Torry Holt did it in Super Bowl XXXIV, and ultimately won Super Bowl MVP – the first running back since Terrell Davis in 1998 to win the award.

Walker proved what he could do as the guy, and the Chiefs fully intend to feature him as such. Yet, where his upside could truly skyrocket is as a pass-catcher.

Though Walker might not leap to mind as an elite receiver, he has posted some solid metrics when used in the passing game. In fact, in 2024, he racked up 46 catches and 53 targets in just 11 games! He was on pace for 82 targets and 71 receptions. 

Across his past three years, Walker has racked up 1.44, 1.33, and 1.30 YPRR. This is Top-6 RB type of output dating back to 2011, per the FantasyLife Podcast.

According to ESPN, “Even this early in the process, the Chiefs believe that Walker’s ability as a pass catcher might be an under-appreciated skill. In Wednesday practice, the Chiefs ran a sophisticated screen pass. When Walker caught the ball, his speed and vision in the open field led Smith and Humphrey to have the same reaction: “Wooooo!”

During the Mahomes Era (since 108), the Chiefs’ primary running backs, as a group, have averaged around 85 targets per game. Over that span, only once has a running back not averaged or paced for at least 50 targets. The lead RB has averaged just over 57 targets per season.

Throwing to the RB has always been a staple of the Andy Reid offense. It helped a nobody like Jerick McKinnon (71 targets) become a complete fantasy juggernaut! 

In general, Walker has proven up to the task when given a Bell Cow workload. He has played 60%+ snaps in 26 games, and hit double-digits in 25 of those. He averages 17.5 PPR FPPG across that sample, too. Charbonnet proved too good to keep off the field and was a perfect complement, but Walker certainly is capable of the Bell Cow duties the Chiefs’ will likely ask of him given the financial commitment and coachspeak. 

Based on early Training Camp, Walker’s involvement in the passing game will be a 2026 Staple:

Walker isn’t without some warts, though. He’s always been a bit boom-busty as a runner – 19% of Walker’s rushes went for zero or negative yards last season, the 15th highest rate in the league among RBs with at least 100 carries.

Across his four year career, Walker is 50th in rush success rate out of 56 qualifiers. He dances a bit too much in the hole, and doesn’t always take the easy run.

However, Chiefs’ OC Eric Bieniemy, who has a rich history of revitalizing run games, could really help improve this. Walker has already noted how hard Bieniemy stresses the little details, like footwork, getting uphill, and taking the small wins instead of always shooting for the home run.

“I think I can get a lot better, I just want to be a better player. The first night we met he (Bienemy) was talking about stuff that I did wrong on the field and talking about everything I need to be detailed at.”

Just last year under Bienemy, D’Andre Swift experienced a massive jump in his ability to gain positive yards over expectation. Swift went from 29% and dead last in 2024 all the way to 49%, first in the league, and has credited Bienemy and Johnson’s hard coaching as a major reason.

Even a slight improvement for Walker would be massive.

Beyond improving his boom-bust style, Walker has struggled with staying healthy in his career, and has rarely been a true featured RB. Last year marked the first time in his four-year career that Walker started every game. Over his first three seasons with the Seahawks, Walker had missed a combined 10 games with various injuries — a strained calf, a strained oblique and a sprained ankle.

 In 2024, he missed five games, experiencing a version of all three injuries, before a left high ankle sprain ended his season in late December as the Seahawks tried to make a playoff run.

Due to a mixture of injuries and the timeshare with Charbonnet, Walker has never exceeded 228 carries in a single season. In his career, including the playoffs, Walker has carried the ball 20 or more times in a game 10 times. And before his 27-carry Super Bowl performance in February, he had not done so since Nov. 3, 2024.

Thus, both the Chiefs and fantasy owners are making a somewhat risky bet on Walker, but it’s one I expect to pay off huge. When he’s available, Walker will absolutely feast within this offense. He’s so explosive, has untapped receiving upside, and with Mahomes plus a high-end offensive line, this offense affords RBs more advantageous space than nearly any other. Walker is the Round 2 League-Winner of 2026.

11) OMARION HAMPTON, LA CHARGERS📈

Updated 8/26: In the clip below, Mike McDaniel says Omarion Hampton reminds him of “someone close ot his heart and core — Terrell Davis.”

The whole quote is incredible. “O reminds me—the way he plays with the ball in his hands in space, the way he sets up his blockers by pressing and bringing the ball all the way to the heels of the blockers—of somebody that is close to my heart and core. That’s Terrell Davis. That’s who I grew up watching. And so there’s similarities that have really struck with me. If you’re a talented ball carrier, the cool thing about the run game is all you’re trying to do is create, you’re trying to maximize the amount of space that a ball carrier can have to utilize the skill set.

“So it’s very easy in the run game to adjust for high-producing, high-yards-per-carry players. I’m really excited about O because I think he’s an extremely hard guy to tackle that’s just starting to find his true NFL confidence. And guys with confidence with that amount of skill set, watch out.”

I am super high on the Mike McDaniel and Chargers marriage. While Justin Herbert and the entire offense will greatly benefit from McDaniel’s creativity, his influence will be most felt in the backfield.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Dolphins rank 2nd in Backfield Expected FPs (Volume) at 26.2, trailing only Kyle Shanahan, and finished fourth in points from RB runs, behind only Detroit (Gibbs), Baltimore (Henry + Lamar), and Atlanta (Bijan). They were third in points per RB run, behind the Lions and 49ers. This was with a mediocre line and overall offense – the Lions were 1st in total points, the 49ers fourth, the Dolphins 11th. 

In total, Mike McDaniel-led offenses have ranked top-five in the percentage of total non-QB Fantasy points (PPR) that came from the RB position in each of the past three seasons:

  • 2025 – 3rd
  • 2024 – 5th
  • 2023 – 1st

That 2023 season was particularly impressive, as both Mostert and Achane were Top-5 RBs in FPPG! This is the only time in the modern era (25+ years) this has ever happened, and only one other time did a backfield produce two RBs even in the Top-10 (2017 Saints).

Moreover, McDaniels loves giving his top-RB the rock at the GL. For the past three seasons, McDaniel’s offense has ranked Top-5 in percentage of offensive TDs his top-RB accounts for. Raheem Mostert’s 37% TD Share in 2023 (RB4), De’Von Achane 35% (RB3) and 32% (RB5). Mostert led the NFL in TDs in the 2023 season (18). I sneaky love betting Hampton +2500 to lead RBs in rushing TDs.

Achane obviously had influence, but McDaniel has also loved throwing to his RBs. His RB target shares over the past three seasons: 24.7% (1st), 23.1% (1st), 22.8% (5th). McDaniel ranks 3rd in designed targets per game among active playcallers (4.29, tied with Liam Coen and behind only Matt LaFleur and Andy Reid).

All of this is to paint the elite fantasy environment Omarion Hampton will be playing inside for 2026. Can he smash and maximize the amazing opportunity ahead?

Considering Hampton just drew “Terrell Davis” comparisons from McDaniel, who was groomed by the Shanahan’s, I like his chances. 

Hampton’s injury-plagued rookie season left a lot to be desired, but still provided plenty of flashes. 

Hampton had the second-most gains of 15+ yards among this rookie class, despite only playing in nine games (including two he was severely limited). His percentage of 15+ yard touches tied Derrick Henry as the RB8. 

That’s especially noteworthy because McDaniel’s offenses rank 3rd in 10+ yard run rate (14.1%) since 1999.  

Don’t forget, as a prospect, Hampton ripped off a blazing 4.46 forty despite weighing a sturdy 221 lbs, while also posting elite explosion metrics in the vertical and broad jumps: 

He broke out as a sophomore for Drake Maye’s Tar Heels, posting a 253-1,504-15 rushing line (5.94 YPC) and adding 29-222-1 as a receiver over 13 games. Even with Maye gone and UNC crumbling, Hampton continued to thrive as a true workhorse, recording 281-1,660-15 on the ground (5.91 YPC) with 38-373-2 receiving. He has true every-down ability.

His 138.3 rushing YPG led all Power Conference RBs and ranked as the best season of any Power Conference RB in the stacked 2025 class, and placed Hampton in some elite company, per the GOAT Scott Barrett:

When he was available as a rookie, Hampton was trusted to shoulder the load. He had a 63% snap rate for the year, but before getting hurt in Week 5, Hampton was truly starting to ascend. In Weeks 3 and 4, Hampton was fresh off 80% and 88% snap shares and had ripped off 24.9 (RB4) and 27.5 (RB7) performances. 

If you remove the Week 5 injury and his first two games back when Hampton was getting back to speed, he averaged 72% snaps and, more impressively, a 60% route rate in his healthy games. Only 11 RBs hit those thresholds for the 2025 season, and they finished as the RB1, RB2, RB2, RB4, RB5, RB7, RB9, RB11, RB12, RB14, and RB16. Not a bad floor if Hampton can maintain similar usage!

Then consider that the line was absolutely abysmal, truly the worst in the league. Stalwart LT RaShawn Slater is perhaps the best run-blocking tackle in the game, and he was lost before the season even began. Joe Alt also went down in Week 9, and the line dropped to the league-worst overnight. 

With Alt and Slater back, as well as some interior beef (they lost center Tyler Biadasz but drafted mauling Round 2 guard Jake Slaughter), this Chargers’ offensive line is expected to rank Top-10 in 2026 according to the composite OL rankings. 3

Ultimately, Hampton is an explosive three-down talent, playing for the best run-game schemer (especially at generating explosives), and running alongside a Top-12 Line and Top-7 QB? 

The math is easy. Even though I am also super-high on Keaton Mitchell, Hampton is a smash in Round 2 who I can easily see leading the NFL in rushing TDs and finishing as a sure-fire Top-8 overall pick in 2027 Drafts.

Previously, I was worried about McDaniel’s “Hot Hand” comments:

Worst case thoguh, we already know McDaniel facilitated a backfield that featured the RB3 and RB4 in FPPG (2023 Dolphins). This can be a committee. Keaton Mitchell can still have value.

If Vidal, who really did impress as a starter last year, is also going to sneak in for some work, that would be annoying. But McDaniel is also known for BS comments and shenanigans, promising involvement from Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright while handing Achane one of the league’s most secure workloads (RB4 finish).

Hampton is no Achane (yet), but if he truly reminds McDaniel of Terrell Davis, then Omarion is going to be fed. McDaniel was groomed by the Shanahan’s, just look at the stats & workloads Davis was pulling in his prime:

  • 381 touches (52 tgts), 1848 YFS, 15 TDs
  • 411 touches (58 tgts), 2037 YFS, 15 TDs
  • 417 touches (38 tgts), 2225 YFS, 23 TDs

Hampton is now my 11th overall player. McDaniel’s run-scheme creates limitless upside, and Hampton is a truly explosive talent. I am going to call BS on McDaniel’s committee comments, and put far more stock on his Terrell Davis comparison.

The Athletic’s Daniel Popper feels similarly. On a recent interview, he said: “This is not that confusing to me. It’s not that complicated. Omarion Hampton is really, really, really good at football… I wouldn’t overthink it here from a fantasy perspective. Omarion Hampton is the guy.

“They are going to use Keaton Mitchell a bunch, he is going to be a factor in the passing game, but Hampton was on track to breaking out…and then had a freak injury…What he was doing before the injury was extremely impressive. He’s fast, he’s physical. Finishes runs in a violent manner. He is going to be able to attack in this offensive scheme with all the outside zone… Hampton could be a Top-5 back in this league, he has that type of skillset and is going to flourish in this offense.”

Sure, I do still love Mitchell, but Hampton seems to be trending to the Round 2 RB League Winner status. His ceiling is higher than just about any RB in fantasy, as Hampton truly has 2,000 YFS and 20 TD upside. I keep flip-flopping him and Walker, and I would love to leave the Round 1 / 2 Turn with both.

12) CHASE BROWN, CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Wolf: 12 overall (+2 vs ECR, +3 ADP)

Chase Brown’s price has now risen to mid-round 2… and it still remains too cheap. Between the three-down skill set, track record with Burrow, and a pristine role in a Top-3 offense, Brown truly should be a first-rounder in every draft.

Brown is inarguably a true RB1 any time he shares the field with Joe Burrow. He took over as the clear starter in Week 9 of 2024. In that span, he’s started 15 total games with Burrow. In those contests, Brown averages 20.9 PPR FPPG, which would’ve ranked as the RB5, just ahead of De’Von Achane. 

In those 15 starts with Burrow, Brown has finished as a Top-12 RB a whopping 11 times (73%), while never posting below 13 PPR FPs. He’s topped 24 FPs in 6 of those starts, too! 

Interestingly, Brown’s sheer volume wasn’t amazing, as he hit 20+ touches just six times on the year. Yet, in those games with Burrow, his expected FPs are over 20 FPs, which is CMC-level. That’s because of how high value those touches are, with a ton of work in the Red Zone and in the passing game.

We did see Brown’s snap share drop from the absurd 85% he had posted during his 2024 starts, but his 67% snap share still ranked RB9, and his 71.6% opportunity share was RB6. He was the RB4 in targets (88) and routes (375), plus the RB5 in receptions (69).

Additionally, on a team stacked with weapons, Brown also saw 42% of the red zone touches and 43% of the touches inside the 10. The usage is elite.

Samaje Perine was annoyingly involved and he returned this offseason. If the Early Preseason is any indication, Perine may be annoyingly involved once more:

Still, the Bengals made no other additions, so I expect Brown to remain a high-value, high-touch RB in Vegas’ fifth-highest projected offense. 

Of course, the added risk of being so Burrow-dependent has to be stated, but Joe Flacco’s presence should raise the floor even here. Brown averaged 16.6 FPPG with Flacco, and was Top-12 in half of his six starts. He even tallied a 14 (!) target week in Chicago with Flacco under center!

Plus, Burrow is calling for even more Chase Brown in 2026:

“He does everything. He can protect. He trains as a receiver all off season and you wouldn’t know he was a running back.. You don’t have to take him off the field, you can build packages for him in different places.

““..obviously we’re going to try to get the ball in number one’s hands as many times as we can, but I think a close second is Chase Brown just because of how explosive he is and the things that he can do with the ball in his hand.”

Cum.

Thus, Brown is among my favorite Round 2 picks, and I am happy to take him in Round 1, whether he’s beefing up a stable in an RB-RB start or providing a high-end RB1 to a Round 1 Unicorn WR stab. He actually falls to the Top of Round 3 in ESPN – insane!

Noticeably Absent & Next Up After My Top-12 Fantasy Football Picks

In nearly all rankings and ADP sources, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson round out the Top-12 Picks in 2026 Fantasy Football.

Yet, I personally am fading both for the RBs in this range. In fact, I actually have AJ Brown ranked ahead of them. I will dive deep into those 3 WRs in an article soon, but my summary of the fade & target:

–Justin Jefferson (ADP = 10, My rank = 16): He can only go improve from last year and might be the best pure WR in the league, but I worry Kyler Murray isn’t enough for him to surpass the elite RBs around him.  across six professional seasons, Murray has only had one WR finish within the Top-24 in total FPs. Jefferson will undoubtedly be the next, and Murray will be better than JJ McCarthy by default, but I wouldn’t consider him the King Maker most do.

–CeeDee Lamb (ADP = 11, My Rank = 15): George Pickens might be just as good and is having his role expanded. Lamb is elite no doubt, but he will have a hard time surpassing the elite RBs in his range if Pickens remains healthy all year. Even excluding the games Lamb missed & Pickens erupted and just looking at the 14 games they played together, Pickens averaged 15.21 FPs compared to 14.35 for Lamb.

To me, there are WRs falling in the Round 3-5 Range with genuine “Next JSN Upside.” Sure, they aren’t as proven as Lamb or Jefferson, but the RB drop-off feels far steeper after Round 2. Plus, RBs have made up the vast majority of league-winners across the past decade. If I can land two Top-12 Backs who pan out, the path to a title is clear.

Thus, I am fading these WRs, which absolutely terrifies me… but I think is the right call.

Summary: Who Should You Pick in the First Round of 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts?

I rank the Top-12 Picks for 2026 Fantasy Football as follows:

Tier 1

1) Jahmyr Gibbs

2) Bijan Robinson

Tier 1.5

3) Puka Nacua

4) Ja’Marr Chase

Tier 2

5) Jaxon Smith-Njigba

6) Amon-Ra St. Brown

7) James Cook📈

8) Jonathan Taylor

9) Christian McCaffrey📉

Tier 3

10) Ken Walker

11) Omarion Hampton 📈

12) Chase Brown

With 8 RBs and 4 WRs, my intentions are quite clear: secure a sure Unicorn at WR (only 4 in my eyes), or load up the stable for Bell Cows.

This article is just a sliver from the 350+ pages included in The Wolf’s 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, featuring 200+ player breakdowns, top draft values, busts to avoid, Penny Stock sleepers, tier-based analysis, exclusive cheat sheets, and much more. This is the only guide you need to dominate your fantasy football draft, and it’s the one no one in your league will know about — plus it’s updated all summer long!

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