Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull: Which Saints’ RB is the best Pick in Week 16 Fantasy Football?

Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull in Week 16 Fantasy Football: Introduction

Over the past three weeks, the Saints and Kellen Moore had turned their backfield over to Devin Neal. The Kansas rookie had played 73%, 81%, and 71% of the snaps in Weeks 12, 13, and 14, and was on his way towards another massive snapshare, logging 22-of-29 snaps through three drives in Week 15.

Unfortunately, Neal suffered a hamstring injury, and has already been ruled out in Week 16:

Additionally, Alvin Kamara was not seen at Wednesday’s practice. A massive “volume hole” has opened up, and the Week 16 matchup could not be tastier vs. the Jets.

Consequently, fantasy owners desperate for an RB2 are now scrambling to the waiver wire to pick up the pieces. Yet, the question remains:

Which Saints’ RB is best to pick: Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull?

There’s no clear answer here, and both bring some real positives, as well as genuine warts, to the table.

Let’s dive into the profiles and outlooks for Audric Estime and Evan Hull to pick who fantasy owners should prioritize this week.

For a deep dive into two other sleeper RBs for Week 16, click here!

Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull: Who was the Better Prospect?

If comparing just athleticism, Evan Hull beats Audric Estime by a landslide. Take a look at their Relative Athletic Scores (RAS):

With 4.47 speed at a sturdy 209 lbs, Hull’s 9.39 RAS score ranks in the 93rd percentile.

Estime’s athletic profile is fine for his mammoth size (230 lbs), especially in his vertical and broad jumps that indicate explosivity. Still, Hull is undoubtedly the more gifted athlete of the two.

In terms of collegiate production, both Estime and Hull racked up impressive stats. Estime did the vast majority of his damage on the ground as a true tackle-shedding bulldozer for Notre Dame. Over his final two seasons, Hull racked up 2261 rushing yards (2538 YFS) and 30 total TDs across 392 touches (26 receptions). He displayed a surprising breakaway gear once he burst into the second level, and almost never went down on first contact.

Meanwhile, Hull was far more of a receiving dynamo. He racked up 88 receptions across his final two seasons, and ultimately accumulated 2732 YFS and 16 TDs over that span. His 17.3% target share ranked in the 98th percentile among college RBs.

Conversely, Estime ranked in the 36th percentile with a meager 5.4% collegiate target share.

As such, Hull must be a natural shoo-in for the receiving work for New Orleans… right? RIGHT?

Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull: Week 15 Usage Comparison

Following Neal’s departure, Estime and Hull split snaps dead-even at 20 each. Ultimately, Hull lead the way with 4 carries, but he managed just 12 yards, compared to 11 yards on three attempts for Estime.

Most interesting, however, was the receiving usage. While Hull profiles as the clear-cut better pass-catching prospect, Kellen Moore gave the nod to Estime in these situations… while Hull was the main early-down back. Go Figure. Via PFF’s Nathan Jahnke and his amazing Week 15 Immediate Takeaways column:

Right or wrong, Estime did not disappoint as the lead receiving back. He hauled in 3 catches for 39 yards (impressive 13.0 yards per catch!), and was crucial during the Saints’ game-winning drive with their backs against the wall. Estime ultimately racked up nearly half the team’s yardage on the game-winning drive.

Following the game, Estime expressed his his appreciation for the receiving work:

“I like to show that I’m a three-down back and I can play in any style of offense as needed,” Estime said. “… I’m definitely a bruising back, but I don’t like to limit myself and say that’s the only thing that is a part of my game.

Beyond this one-week sample, Estime has a longer track record at the NFL level, too. Estime has racked up 82 carries, 332 yards (4.0 YPC), and 2 TDs in 1.5 seasons, compared to a meager 11 carries & 32 yards (2.9 YPC) across 2.5 seasons for Hull. No, Estime hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s at least done something at the NFL level.

Between the Saints’ Week 15 usage and this meager-but-superior NFL track record, Estime feels the most likely to get the starting nod for the Saints.

Most weeks, this probably wouldn’t matter. However, Week 16 is not most weeks, because the Saints square off with the New York Jets.

Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull Week 16 Matchup: Jets = A Dream

With matchups vs. the Jets and Titans looming, the Saints currently boast the easiest remaining strength of schedule for RBs. In particular, the Week 16 date vs. the Jets is incredibly juicy.

Since trading Quinnen Williams, the Jets have surrendered the most FPs to RBs in the league.

Over the past 5 weeks, this includes:

• 29.8 Half-PPR FPs to TreVeyon Henderson
• 21.8 to Derrick Henry
• 27.8 to Bijan Robinson
• 40 total FPs to the Dolphins backs
• 30 FPs to Travis Etienne.

In short, the Jets have been getting BLUDGEONED by running backs.

With a three-down profile and a crucial hand in the Saints’ Week 15 victory, Audric Estime has the momentum entering this glorious Jets matchup. It is volatile, and Hull had the stronger receiving and athletic profile out of college, so the pendulum could shift on a dime.

Still, the Week 16 Jets’ matchup creates so much upside that desperate fantasy football owners should strongly consider the Saints’ backfield. This is especially true if you’ve missed out on Michael Carter (deep dive here).

In the debate of Audric Estime vs. Evan Hull, I go Estime. With Neal officially out, Estime has rocketed up to my RB32 (+10 ECR) in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings. Estime has room to rise if positive hype and coachspeak fuels this fire further.