Alvin Kamara
2019 Fantasy Stock Profile
Positional Rank: RB6
Overall Rank: 6
ADP: 7

Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)


FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent

28/30

Usage

22/25

Surrounding Talent

15/15

Coaching Scheme

14/15

Risk

9/10

Upside

5/5

Bottom Line: Slippery, explosive, and surprisingly powerful, Kamara is the ultimate do-it-all weapon that landed with the perfect mind to unleash him in Sean Payton. His elite receiving abilities, perhaps behind only Christian McCaffrey among RBs, are utilized to the fullest, with Kamara logging 81 receptions in back-to-back seasons. Both via the run or pass, Peyton constantly cooks up ways to get Kamara in space, before knifing him up the gut when the defense softens up. This is truly a perfect Talent / Scheme / Usage marriage, which is emphasized even further by the elite Surrounding Talent in New Orleans. The line has graded out as PFF's top run-blocking unit in back-to-back seasons, and of course Drew Brees keeps this offense humming to the NFL's second best scoring clip (32.7 PPG, behind only Kansas City).


The only blemish here is the actual volume, as Kamara averaged just the 12th most touches per game thanks to a committee with Mark Ingram. Crucial to note, however: Ingram is a 2019 Free Agent. If he departs without a similar talent replacement, Kamara's Usage and overall stock score would soar to Top-3 levels. In fact, Kamara's numbers with and without Ingram are legitimately startling: 


Pace with Ingram: 229 touches (76 rec), 1503 tot. Yds (711 receiving), 15 TDs (10 rush) = 277 FPs, 17.31 per game (half)


Pace without Ingram:  360 touches (140 rec.), 2396 tot. yds (1344 = rec), 24 TDs (20 Rush) = 454 FPs, 28.35 per game


For perspective, during his historic 2006 (2323 tot. yds, 31 TDs, 56 rec), LaDainian Tomlinson netted 446 FPs... less than Kamara's pace. Granted, even if Ingram departs, Kamara is unlikely to slide right back into that volume and consequent insane pace; the team will likely replace him with something at least mildly comparable, and Payton has always preferred a committee. Still, as Christian McCaffrey flashed in Carolina, the workhorse definition is clearly changing. Any freed up volume would go a huge way towards Kamara hitting his No.1 overall ceiling.




Ceiling Projection: 330 touches (100 rec.), 2,100 Tot. Yds, 20 TDs


Floor Projection*: 220 touches (70 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs


Actual Projection: 300 touches (80 rec), 1900 Tot. Yds, 15 TDs

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*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games