Bottom Line: Fantasy's TE1, TE2, and TE1 over the past three years, Kelce put together career-highs across the board amidst the Chiefs' offensive explosion under Patrick Mahomes. For all his lack of toughness, Kelce uses his massive 6'5" frame masterfully, which makes him a deadly Red Zone weapon in an offense that resides there more than any other. His insane 103 - 1336 - 10 TD line not only topped all TEs by nearly 20 FPs, but was more than all but eight WRs. When compared to the complete unpredictably and ineptitude of the TE position (only Zach Ertz and George Kittle were dependable), this edge is even more glaring. In fact, Kelce, who doubled the FPs of TE6 Austin Hooper, ranked 7th on Yahoo's MVP List of most common championship fixtures.
Moving forward, there's minimal reason to expect regression. Mahomes is clearly God, Andy Reid's offense remains among the pass-happiest in the league, and this offense sports too many weapons to ever allow Kelce to be completely schemed out. Though securing this massive weekly edge is expensive, the payoff is tremendous with quality late-round drafting. Secure this WR1 at your TE spot towards the end of Round 1, and never look back.
Ceiling Projection: 110 rec (155 tgts), 1,400 Yds, 14 TDs
Floor Projection*: 90 rec (110 tgts), 1,000 Yds, 8 TDs
Actual Projection: 100 rec (140 . tgts), 1250 yds, 10 TDs
*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games