Ezekiel Elliott
2018 Fantasy Stock Profile
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Overall Rank:

#3

Positional Rank:

RB3

Fantasy Stock Score:

95, A

Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent

29/30

Usage

25/25

Surrounding Talent

13/15

Coaching Scheme

10/10

Risk

8/10

Upside

10/10

Bottom Line: Ezekiel Elliott is, obviously, looking to bounce back from what initially appears a pretty disappointing 2017 campaign. After a 1st Team All-Pro rookie season in which he racked up just under 2,000 yards of total offense and 16 TDs, those numbers were virtually cut in half in 2017. Obviously much of that was due to not only his eventual 6-game suspension and the constant drama surrounding it...

 

...yet Zeke still finished third in RB PPG (20.3 in PPR), trailing only Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, while he remained a Top-12 back in all formats despite missing well over 1/3 of the season. He remains arguably the top pure rusher in the league (98.3 rush yds per game topped NFL by nearly 10), is fed a buffet of weekly carries (24.3 also led NFL) in a run-dominant attack built around him, behind a beefy offensive line (No.4 by PFF, despite right side regression). There's enough Surrounding Talent to move the ball, but not enough to threaten his centerpiece role. On-field, he's risk free, but off-field remains another story. Still, with potential increased receiving usage raising his already sky-high ceiling and sturdy rushing floor, Zeke should bounce back huge and will not only threaten for his second rushing title in three years, but also the top-scoring fantasy product. His best is yet to come.


Ceiling Projection: 360 touches (50 rec.), 2,100 tot. Yds, 18 TDs


Floor Projection*: 290 touches (25 rec.), 1,500 tot. Yds, 10 TDs


*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games

 

Combine Results

Height: 6'0"

Weight: 225 lbs

40 YD Dash

4.47 seconds

Vertical Jump

32.5 Inches

Broad Jump

118 in

Bench Press
N/A

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60 YD Shuttle

N/A

20 YD Shuttlee

N/A

3 Cone Drill

N/A

​​Talent​​
29/30

POSITIVES

  • Despite last year's relative dud, Zeke still possesses the speed and vision that make him one of the most difficult backs in the NFL to contain, both on inside and outside runs
  • Instinctive, decisive, and just a pure thoroughbred as a runner who wastes no motion as he churns, churns, and churns some more
  • Has one of the strongest jump-cuts in the game to get to the second level of defenses before they know what's barreled through them
  • Elite balance, physicality, and ability to take tacklers with him for extra yards makes him a Yards After Contact monster, and deadly at the stripe
  • Arguably the top pass-blocking back in the NFL, the former Buckeye may also be the most underrated pass-catcher: has hauled in over 80% of his targets in his rookie year, displaying his great hands as well as his ability to give a young QB a strong target with crisp routes. A wholly untapped source of talent and upside here

Negatives

  • After a subpar season and all his immaturity thus far, a small part of me worries he won't be mentally tough enough to bounce back. A very, very small part.

​Usage​​​​
25/25

POSITIVES

  • His 322 rookie year carries were the most in football, and Zeke's 24.3 carries per game also led the NFL last season. Likely to top the NFL in this category for a third straight season, particularly if Dallas wants any hope at a postseason bid
  • The Cowboys have a young QB coming off a tough sophomore season and just cut their WR1 while their stalwart TE has retired. With 45% of their targets up for grabs, they NEED to continue funneling the offense through Zeke... potentially now including more receiving work
  • Since college - always has, and always will be a workhorse. 

Negatives

  • It'll depend on how camp goes, but 2018 7th-rounder Bo Scarbrough at 6'1", 228 lbs. could very well poach some red zone carries
  • If the Tavon Austin rumors are to be believed, Zeke's receiving upside could remain capped. 

​Surrounding Talent
13/15

POSITIVES

  • Despite losing their right side, Dallas' O-line remains LEGIT. PFF's 4th best line in 2018 has a combined 13 Pro Bowls, five 1st team and six 2nd team All-Pros... with an average age under 26, the youngest in the league. Sheesh.
  • Dak Prescott's play has always been far better with the treat of Zeke looming in the backfield, and the third-year signal caller is certainly due for a resurgence with 16 games together.  Talented enough to keep drives sustained, but not enough to steal the spotlight from Zeke. 
  • Despite the losses of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, guys like rookie Michael Gallup, Allen Hurns and Deonte Thompson have even more speed to stretch the field and open up opportunities to run the ball.

Negatives

  • Dez Bryant is gone. His attitude is gone, but so is his production and presence on the line of scrimmage. That's not easily replaceable, especially with the guys Dallas has on their roster.
  • Add in the retirement of Jason Witten and Dak has abruptly lost his top 2 veteran targets from his first 2 seasons. If Dak starts slow and can't get a passing attack in order, TDs and lengthy drives will be a lot harder to come by

​Coaching Scheme
10/10

POSITIVES

  • Despite losing Zeke, the Cowboys still ranked 5th in rushing attempts, 2nd in rushing yards, and 2nd in rushing TDs... a season after rankings 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in each respective category.
  • In fact, the Cowboys have ranked in the top-five of all rushing categories in 3 of their last 4 seasons under Scott Linehan, who has morphed to his talent and become a run-obsessed coach after his pass-happy ways in Detroit. 
  • Garrett knows his team's 13-3 showing in 2016 was heavily due to Zeke's immense amount of touches, and especially with a slew of new pass catchers, he'll surely make sure his star back is the focal point

Negatives

  • If anyone interferes with Zeke having another Pro Bowl season, it'll be Zeke's own head, not Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan. 

​Risk​​
8/10
*Note - the higher the score, the safer the pick

Positives

  • Zeke dealt with a sore hamstring last preseason and had wrist surgery in college, but hasn't missed NFL games due to injury in his 2 seasons, and played through a broken hand in college. He's extremely tough and durable.
  • As the cornerstone of his offense, he'll rarely dip below 20 carries a game, keeping his floor and consistency high. Duds are few and far between -- he had double digits in 9/10 GP, including over 15 in 7 of these. 
  • With the distractions of his suspension in the past, Zeke has already become the vocal leader his team needs now that Dez and Witten are gone. Ideally, he's ready to be a positive example.

Negatives

  • Obviously there's a past here with disciplinary issues and off-field immaturity.  You would hope Zeke has learned his lesson and won't mess up again, but he's proven this is far from a guarantee
  • While the decrease in surrounding weaponry will mean more work for Zeke to shoulder, his efficiency could suffer if those around him falter
  • He's had a tendency since his OSU days to take big hits in the name of making a big play. It's not necessarily a negative, but in the NFL, everyone's one big hit away from a lost season.

​Upside​​
10/10

Summary

  • With heavy usage likely, a boatload of talent, and an All-World offensive line, Zeke's liable to be the top fantasy performer in any given week, and potential for the season
  • Though Tavon Austin is rumored to be the team's satellite back, Zeke is a very capable receiver who's ceiling would reach Gurley and Bell with similar usage.

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