Tier 1 - The Elite Workhorses
1) Todd Gurley

Positional Rank: RB1 | Overall Rank: #1 | ADP: 1 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Bottom Line: Last year’s Fantasy MVP by a mile returns to the same glorious set up in 2018, making a repeat of “Cheat Code” stats highly likely. He is durable, consistent, incredibly versatile, and used to his utmost capacity in an explosive overall offense. As such, Gurley grades at the top of every single meaningful fantasy value indicator. He’s a locked-in Top-Two overall selection, with only Le’Veon Bell approaching his throne.
Ceiling Projection: 350 touches (65 rec.), 2,100 Tot. Yds, 20 TDs
Floor Projection*: 320 touches (50 rec.), 1700 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs
Actual Projection: 335 touches (55 rec), 1850 Tot. Yds, 15 TDs
*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games
2) Ezekiel Elliott

Positional Rank: RB2 | Overall Rank: #2 | ADP: 3 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Bottom Line: Ezekiel Elliott is, obviously, looking to bounce back from what initially appears a pretty disappointing 2017 campaign. After a 1st Team All-Pro rookie season in which he racked up just under 2,000 yards of total offense and 16 TDs, those numbers were virtually cut in half in 2017. Obviously much of that was due to not only his eventual 6-game suspension and the constant drama surrounding it...
...yet Zeke still finished third in RB PPG (20.3 in PPR), trailing only Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, while he remained a Top-12 back in all formats despite missing well over 1/3 of the season. He remains arguably the top pure rusher in the league (98.3 rush yds per game topped NFL by nearly 10), is fed a buffet of weekly carries (24.3 also led NFL) in a run-dominant attack built around him, behind a beefy offensive line (No.4 by PFF, despite right side regression). There's enough Surrounding Talent to move the ball, but not enough to threaten his centerpiece role. On-field, he's risk free, but off-field remains another story. Still, with potential increased receiving usage raising his already sky-high ceiling and sturdy rushing floor, Zeke should bounce back huge and will not only threaten for his second rushing title in three years, but also the top-scoring fantasy product. His best is yet to come.
Ceiling Projection: 360 touches (50 rec.), 2,100 tot. Yds, 18 TDs
Floor Projection*: 290 touches (25 rec.), 1,500 tot. Yds, 10 TDs
Actual Projection: 330 touches (40 rec), 1800 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs
*Note - Floors are done without injuries in mind. Of course the lowest floor is torn ACL first play of scrimmage. This assumes 16 games
3) Le'Veon Bell

Positional Rank: RB3 | Overall Rank: #3 | ADP: 2 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Bottom Line: The top receiving back in the NFL yet still a bulldozer with the best running patience and vision out there, Bell is the most versatile threat in the league. Unsurprisingly then, he’ll always be a consistent threat to top the NFL in touches, as he did last year with a whopping 406. Perhaps Bell will be one of the few beneficiaries of Todd Haley’s departure, who was notoriously pass heavy in the Red Zone over the past five years — really the only blemish on Bell on the field is his low scoring TDs (X amount the last few years), and perhaps new OC Randy Fichtner will grow more run-heavy inside the 10. Off the field, Bell does carry some Risk — he remains likely to hold out, which often contributes to a slow early starts as he adjusts to game-shape and regains chemistry, he’s been suspended for weed in the past, and, injury-wise, last year was only his second time in six seasons playing a full 16 game slate. Still, there isn’t a surer blend of Individual Talent and High Usage housed among as explosive an offense there is, making Bell a no-brainer for a Top-2 selection.
Ceiling Projection: 400 touches (85 rec.), 2,100 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs
Floor Projection*: 350 touches (50 rec.), 1600 Tot. Yds, 8 TDs
Actual Projection: 370 touches (75 rec), 1750 Tot. Yds, 10 TDs
4) David Johnson

Positional Rank: RB4 | Overall Rank: #4 | ADP: 4 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Bottom Line:
The consensus No.1 Pick just one season ago, Johnson enters 2018 with some question marks. Will he be used as voluminously, especially as a receiver, under new HC Steve Wilks ? Is Justin Pugh’s addition enough beef to vault this line to the Top-15? Can Johnson buck Mike McCoy’s lack of success with his RBs? Thankfully, Johnson’s talent remains constant, and individual talent often dictates and drives all other factors, and early signs all point to those boxes checking off nicely. Thus, Johnson remains likely to see “Cheatcode” usage and thus contend to be 2018’s top fantasy scorer.
Ceiling Projection: 400 touches (85 rec.), 2,100 Tot. Yds, 18 TDs
Floor Projection*: 320 touches (60 rec.), 1500 Tot. Yds, 8 TDs
Actual Projection: 360 touches (70 rec), 1700 Tot. Yds, 13 TDs
Tier 2 - The Borderline Elite RB1s
Positional Rank: RB5 | Overall Rank: #6 | ADP: 8 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Saquon Barkley landed in the ideal spot for his fantasy football value with the New York Giants. His Talent is generational. Pat Shurmur is a bellcow breeder. This offense drips in explosive potential thanks to high-end receiving weaponry, yet is ready to transition to a run-first attack under an aging Eli Manning. All-in-all, the fantasy stars have aligned for a Top Five overall season for Barkley, although he still carries the (very slight) risk of "never seen it before."
Ceiling Projection: 380 touches (60 rec.), 2,000 Tot. Yds, 15 TDs
Floor Projection*: 275 touches (45 rec.), 1300 Tot. Yds, 11 TDs
Actual Projection: 350 touches (55 rec), 1600 Tot. Yds, 12 TDs
Positional Rank: RB6 | Overall Rank: #8 | ADP: 10 |
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Career Stats
(VIA PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE)

FANTASY STOCK SCORE

Individual Talent
29/30

Usage
25/25

Surrounding Talent
13/15

Coaching Scheme
10/10

Risk
8/10

Upside
10/10

Bottom Line: Perhaps the most dangerous and explosive receiving back in the league, Kamara is in the absolute perfect scheme to allow his talents to flourish. Sean Payton is among the game’s most creative play-callers, and constantly draws up unique ways to get Kamara in space so he’s weaving through defenses. Moreover, with Drew Brees as its engine, this overall offense will constantly sustain drives and be within scoring distance. Plus, Kamara benefits from running behind a Top-7 offensive line that generated the most yards before contact for it’s runners in 2017. Kamara isn’t exactly small at (XXXX), and runs with tackle-shedding ability, even if he won’t ever be a true workhorse. Moreover, even if the team suggests Kamara’s role will remain exactly the same amidst Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension, he’s near certain to tally a few additional carries and receptions, with the potential to put a stranglehold on 20+ touches each and every week. The floor is surprisingly high, and though last year feels like the ceiling too, there’s room for it to be elevated even further to begin 2018, making Kamara a locked in Top-10 selection in all formats.
Ceiling Projection: 250 touches (95 rec.), 1,800 Tot. Yds, 15 TDs
Floor Projection*: 200 touches (75 rec.), 1300 Tot. Yds, 9 TDs
Actual Projection: 220 touches (83 rec), 1700 Tot. Yds, 11 TDs