Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Stock Profile: Fantasy's most versatile player primed for larger '17 - Roto Street Journal
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Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Stock Profile: Fantasy’s most versatile player primed for larger ’17

Tyreek Hill

Position: Wide Receiver

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Talent: 9/10

Hill’s talent is undeniably high. Every time that he touches the ball, he’s a genuine threat to take it all the way to the house. He has electrifying speed that allows him to leave defenders in the dust while they wipe those little black turf pellets off of their face as Hill speeds off. Hill is a former track star, so you’d be hard pressed to find a defender with the speed to track him down. He’s got great agility to pair with his speed that makes him an open field threat. His abilities above were clearly highlighted in 2016 by his three return touchdowns. On top of that, he hauled in six receiving touchdowns while rushing for three more.

He only has room to grow in the receiving game as he improves on his route running and separation skills. He’s still good in those categories, but he has a higher ceiling to fine tune those talents even more and become that much more of a weapon. This is no Cordarelle Patterson, one-trick pony.

Opportunity + Usage: 8/10

One of Hill’s lower scores comes from the simple fact that he plays in Kansas City. The Chiefs are not known for their offensive prowess and high scoring games. They are a defensive oriented team that controls the clock and tempo when they have the ball. Kansas City has expressed their desire to get the ball in Hill’s hands more after seeing how much of a play maker he is. He should be high on the pecking order for targets in the Chiefs offense, but not above RSJ (and especially Wolf) “favorite” Travis Kelce. The departure of prior No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin really helps Hill as he’s set to become the team’s top receiver with even more targets.

Coaching Scheme: 9/10

Despite the limited and lower scoring offense that was mentioned above, Hill can do some real work in an Andy Reid offense. Players that generally thrive in these offenses are the running backs, tight ends and a lead receiver. As mentioned earlier, Maclin is now gone so Hill slides right into that WR1 spot. Kelce should continue to dominate in the offense that generally runs shorter routes. The short routes play into QB Alex Smith‘s strong suit where he can get the ball out quickly and let his receivers make plays. That’s exactly what Hill does. A nice crossing route over the middle and he’s blowing by linebackers and the corners are left wondering how Hill managed to equip his cleats with Nos. The shallow routes and play-action also allow for future opportunities for Hill to get deep with his speed and go over the top of the defense. He had a few long ball touchdowns in 2016 making him a dangerous weapon all over the field.

Surrounding Talent: 8.5/10

The Chiefs have limited weapons in their offense, but still enough to keep Hill’s score high here. Kelce is the clear king pin of the offense and had himself a great 2016 that should only continue into 2017. The duo of Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt in the backfield should form a nice tandem that can effectively run the ball and move the chains. Like we said earlier, Alex Smith isn’t a gunslinger, but he knows what he can do and sticks to his strengths in the passing game. Hill is really helped out here by the lack of other receiving threats that would potentially steal receptions from him. Obviously Kelce is a the biggest threat, but after him there’s no real dangerous Chiefs receiver to give him competition. The next guy up would be Chris Conley, so Kelce and Hill should vacuum up the majority of the targets.

The Chiefs also had a pretty good offensive line in 2016, as they graded as the 14th best line in football according to ProFootballFocus. The line will be very helpful in giving Smith the limited time he needs to get those short throws off, along with blocking for Hill on the end around or sweeps that you know will be happening in 2017.

Risk: 7.5/10

The lowest score Hill receives in this report comes from his risk. He was considered a general risk coming out of college due to his distasteful off the field actions that even I still have a hard time overlooking. Hopefully he never goes back down that path, but that figurative scar still exists on him and will likely never go away.

Hill is also a big “boom/bust” guy, where he can explode for a 60+ yard touchdown and put up some eye popping numbers, or simply fall flat with minimal production. With all the buzz and hype currently surrounding Hill, he’s a tough guy to really trust being put into your WR1 spot in fantasy lineups. He’s in only his second year in the NFL and defenses are likely to start game planning to stop or at least slow him down. Though we see someone with far more route-running and separating skills than a Patterson or Tavon Austin, there is some “exposed gadget player” risk here. Thus, the ceiling may be astronomical, but the floor is quite low too. Hill’s a gamble, but ultimately worthwhile.

Overall Stock Score: 42/50 = 84 B

Ceiling Projection / Scenario: After the departure of Maclin, Hill steps up and becomes the clear cut #1 receiving option in the offense. Coach Andy Reid decides to run plenty of the offense through Hill who displays his value in all facets of the game. He’s one of the best play makers in the league and proves doubters wrong that he can be a team’s top receiver. Receiving alone, Hill appears as a solid WR1 on rosters, but his rushing totals and return touchdowns put him over the edge towards elite fantasy receiver territory.

85 catches, 1,100 yards, 10 TDs; 25 carries, 250 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns; 4 return touchdowns

Floor Projection/Scenario (excluding injury):  Defenses key in on Hill now that he’s the WR1 in the offense and game plan him to stop him in the run and return game. With such a small frame, Hill struggles to separate at the line of scrimmage and has a difficult time outworking corner backs. The Chiefs offense sputters along mostly feeding Kelce and having the running backs handle a lot of the workload. Hill gets decent reception numbers, but the yardage and touchdown totals are down from the prior year which lowers his ceiling.

55 catches, 625 yards, 4 TDs; 25 carries, 175 yards 1 rushing touchdown; 2 return touchdowns

Bottom Line:

Hill should be in for an improved 2017 season and build upon his late breakout in 2016; we had Hill at WR17 before Maclin’s release, so we’re drooling even further now.

Sure, team’s will have tape and Hill is at risk of being exposed, but the usage is projected to be far greater, and who’s to say Hill can’t develop his receiving skills even further? He’s often labeled a “gadget” player, but film breakdown suggests this is a grave mistake; Hill consistently beating some of the best corners off the line with incredible suddenness, and flashed plenty of route-running prowess in the short and intermediate game to go along with his elite vertical speed. Think more Brandin Cooks than Cordarelle Patterson.

All-in-all, Hill as the skill and tools to be one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL, and the team should be getting the ball into his hands as much as possible. He’s valuable in three facets the to the game which not many other players can claim, making him that much more dynamic, and the bonus points for return touchdowns and his rushing numbers will only help to push him past from “middling WR2” to “WR1” territory.


2017 Predicted Stat Line: 80 catches, 1,000 yards, 8 TDs; 20 carries, 250 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns; 3 return touchdowns

We used this formula to nail David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. Check back for more Fantasy Stock Profiles throughout the off-season to stay ahead of your fantasy football league.


  • THE Inaugural 2016 RSJ Fantasy Football League Champion. Owner of a #bigbrain, and lover of football, baseball and college hoops. When not grinding for the RSJ, can be found captaining his beer league softball team.

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