2018 Fantasy Football: Week 11 Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em

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I admit, I had a rough go of it last week. Guys like Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Tevin Coleman, Larry Fitzgerald and Jarvis Landry failed to take advantage of their soft matchups. Though Week 10 Start/Sit was certainly my worst performance of the season, it wasn’t completely inaccurate. I was able to predict Aaron Jones’ breakout and correctly told you to bench the likes of Sony Michel and Golden Tate. With a little extra motivation from last week’s misses, I’m dead set on attacking this week’s predictions with Aaron Rodgers-like accuracy.

I make these suggestions based on each player’s weekly matchups, surrounding talent and in-game usage. While predicting the future is anything but easy, using these tools can help us make better choices when determining which players we start or sit from week to week.

Let me remind you that these lists consist of players who aren’t obvious. I shouldn’t have to tell you to start the Antonio Browns, Aaron Rodgers and Todd Gurleys of the world. This article revolves around players who haven’t yet reached “stud” status, and thus require weekly consideration for your lineup.

For more help with your lineup check out The Wolf’s weekly rankings.

Start ‘Em

Quarterback

Jared Goff:

There will be no shortage of points Monday night when two of the top three scoring teams face off. The biggest weekly threat to Goff’s fantasy output is a run-heavy game-script, as leaning on Todd Gurley is a good formula for winning games. This week, however, Goff’s arm will get plenty of usage as the Rams find themselves in a highly-anticipated shootout with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Dak Prescott:

Dak is back. After struggling early in the season, Prescott seems to have found his groove. The addition of Amari Cooper has finally given Prescott a go-to receiver. More importantly, the third-year quarterback has taken it upon himself to run more and has rushed for a touchdown in three of his last four games. This week Prescott takes on a Falcons defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back

Alex Collins:

Matchups don’t get much better than this. At home, coming off a bye against a pathetic Cincinnati run defense, Collins is in position to capitalize. The Bengals have surrendered the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields, including the second-most rushing yards per game (141.2) and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (11). Collins has four touchdowns in his last four games and is likely to keep that trend alive.

Aaron Jones:

He’s free! After being confined to a brutal committee, Mike McCarthy finally gave Jones the lion’s share of the work last week. Jones played 74% of the offensive snaps and racked up 172 yards from scrimmage, two touchdowns and three receptions. This week the Packers travel to Seattle to play a Seahawk’s defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards per carry (5.0).

Results: 103 Yards From Scrimmage, 5 Receptions, 2 Touchdowns

Dion Lewis:

Since their week-eight bye, Lewis has out-snap Derrick Henry 108-30. He has 45 touches over the past two weeks and faces a Colts defense that has given up the 11th-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing running backs. Lewis excels at catching passes out of the backfield, which is an area when Indianapolis is susceptible. The Colts have surrendered 20 catches, 174 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown to opposing running backs over their past two games.

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery:

Jeffery’s fantasy output has been quite predictable through his first six games. He has 23 catches for 267 yards and four touchdowns against the leaky secondaries of the Titans, Panthers and Giants. On the flip side, Jeffery has 10 catches for 122 yards and no scores versus more stingy teams like the Vikings, Jaguars and Cowboys. This week Jeffery is a must-start against a Saints defense that has allowed the most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.

Amari Cooper:

In his two games with the Cowboys, Cooper has seen a hefty 18 targets. With those opportunities he’s accumulated 11 receptions, 133 yards and a score. Cooper has a chance to truly go off this week against a Falcons defense that has given up the third-most passing yards per game (294.4), the third most passing touchdowns (21) and the fourth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.

Robert Woods:

Woods has already set a career high in receiving yards this season and is averaging 94.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He’d get more attention if it weren’t for the fact that he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week four. With scoring-machine Cooper Kupp sideline for the year, Woods should see more opportunities. You want to play all the Rams and Chiefs you can in what’s anticipated to be the highest-scoring game of the year.

Tight End

Evan Engram:

The 46 yards Engram logged last week were the most he’s recorded since returning from injury. This week he’ll look to take advantage of a pathetic Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends. Tampa Bay has given up a touchdown to a tight end in five or their last seven games, which bodes well for Engram’s chances of finding the endzone.

Austin Hooper:

Hooper has seen 10 or more targets in three games this season and five or less in the other six. I like his odds of being highly used this week against the Cowboys. Dallas has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers but the 10th-most to opposing tight ends. Coming off a 10-catch performance, it would make sense for Atlanta to lean on Hooper again as the path of least resistance.

Defense

Arizona Cardinals:

The Cardinals held their own against the Chiefs’ explosive offense last week, scoring the most fantasy points of any defense to play Kansas City this year. They should be able to bully a lowly Raiders offense that has failed to score a touchdown in three of their last four games. Oakland has allowed the ninth-most sacks (29) and has committed the 10th-most turnovers (13).

Baltimore Ravens:

Cincinnati has scored 14 or less points in two of their last three games and are expected to be without star receiver A.J. Green for a second straight game. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed the second-fewest points (17.8) and yards (305) per game in the league. At home and coming off a bye, Baltimore belongs in your lineup.

Sit ‘Em

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins:

The good news is Cousins is expected to get Stefon Diggs back from a rib injury. The bad news is Minnesota travels to Chicago to play a vaunted Bears defense. The Monsters of the Midway have held their opponents to the lowest quarterback rating in the league (79.8), lead the NFL in interceptions (16) and their 30 sacks are one off from the league-high.

Alex Smith:

To put it nicely, Washington’s passing game is underwhelming. Smith has eclipsed 200 yards passing in just one of his last five games and hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes since week six. This week Smith faces a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back

Jordan Howard:

The emergence of Tarik Cohen has cut into Jordan Howard’s workload. The Indiana alum is on pace for career lows in carries and yards per rush. And because he isn’t a receiving threat, Howard has become touchdown dependent. I don’t like his chances this week against a stout Vikings defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. Minnesota has held rushers to the fewest yards per carry (3.6) and the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns (5) this season.

Marlon Mack:

Mack’s fantasy outlook will vary greatly from week to week based on game-script and matchup. After beating up on the horrendous Buffalo and Oakland teams, Mack came back to earth against a much more talented Jacksonville squad. This week he faces a Titans defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields, the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns (4) and the sixth-fewest yards per carry (3.9).

Latavius Murray:

After playing 81% of the snaps during Dalvin Cook’s four game absence, Murray logged a 45% snap rate in Cook’s week nine return. Coming off a bye, Cook could demand an even larger share of the work as his hamstring has had more time to heal. While Minnesota could still utilize Murray’s power near the goal-line, he has a tough matchup this week in Chicago. The Bears have given up the fewest rushing touchdowns (2) and yards per carry (3.6) and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson:

In his first game back from injury, Robinson put up his best numbers of the season, making six catches for 133 yards and two scores. That, however, was against a reeling Lions team who was without their best defender, cornerback Darius Slay. This week Robinson faces a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns (12) and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

Calvin Ridley:

Ridley has reached the endzone just once since racking up an insane six touchdowns from weeks 2-4. He’s eclipsed 70 yards receiving just twice and surpassed five receptions in three of nine games this season. He’ll take on a Cowboys defense this week that has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers and the third-fewest touchdown passes (12).

Devin Funchess:

After averaging 7.8 targets per game through his first six outings, Funchess has seen just 4.3 looks per game over the last three weeks. The return of Greg Olsen and emergence of Carolina’s young weapons has cut into the veteran’s targets share. Funchess is expected to be shadowed by All-Pro corner Darius Slay, who is likely to return from injury this week. If Slay can’t play, Funchess’ fantasy prospects receive a boost.

Tight End

Jack Doyle:

No defense has allowed fewer fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends than the Titans, who are yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end this season. This is bad news for Doyle who seems to play second fiddle to Eric Ebron near the endzone. Despite Doyle out-snapping Ebron 105-38 since returning from injury, its Ebron who’s found the endzone four times to Doyle’s one.

Kyle Rudolph:

It’s been a disappointing season for Rudolph’s fantasy owners. The eight-year vet hasn’t caught a touchdown since week three and hasn’t surpassed 50 yards receiving since week four. With so many weapons on this offense Rudolph is getting lost in the mix, commanding just 12.3% of the target share. This week he faces a fierce Bears defense that has surrendered the tenth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends.

Defense

Los Angeles Rams:

Both the Chiefs and Rams rank top three in the league in points scored and yards per game. Las Vegas has their over/under at 63.5 total points, which is a new record. That should tell you all you need to know about starting the Rams’ or Chiefs’ defenses this week. Don’t do it.

Kansas City Chiefs:

If you need to know why you shouldn’t start the Chiefs’ defense read what I had to say about the Rams above.

Author

  • Fantasy football writer for Roto Street Journal. Freelance writer, Senior Podcast Producer and Production Assistant for FOX59 and CBS4. Indiana University graduate class of 2016. Follow on Twitter @fasttakefantasy

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