How is your playoff push going? With just four weeks left in the fantasy regular season it is time to start stacking W’s and setting yourself up for a playoff run. If your team needs reinforcements you should read our Trade Deadline Strength of Schedule Guide. If you’re just looking for help with your lineup, you’ve come to the right place.
Last week’s Start/Sit predictions concluded with another high success rate. I told you to bench Rob Gronkowski before his inactive status left you high and dry on Sunday night. I also correctly recommended starting guys such as Cooper Kupp, Greg Olsen, Nick Chubb and Jared Goff. As always, I did have a few misfires, like when I suggested benching Ben Roethlisberger and Ben Watson. The day I start getting 100% of my predictions right is the day you should raid my garage for a time machine.
I make these suggestions based on each player’s weekly matchups, surrounding talent and in-game usage. While predicting the future is anything but easy, using these tools can help us make better choices when determining which players we start or sit from week to week.
Let me remind you that these lists consist of players who aren’t obvious. I shouldn’t have to tell you to start the Antonio Browns, Aaron Rodgers and Todd Gurleys of the world. This article revolves around players who haven’t yet reached “stud” status, and thus require weekly consideration for your lineup.
For more help with your lineup check out The Wolf’s weekly rankings.
Start ‘Em
Quarterback
Philip Rivers:
The last time Rivers played the Raiders (W5) he threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns. The last time the Raiders played in general they gave up three touchdowns and 262 yards passing to third-string rookie quarterback, Nick Mullens. Oakland has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (19) while accumulating the fewest sacks (7), the fifth-fewest interceptions (4) league-wide.
Andy Dalton:
The bad news is Dalton will be without his top receiver A.J. Green. The good news is he’s at home this week and gets 2017 first round pick John Ross back from injury. The Saints bring with them a defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing passers and an offense that has scored the second-most points per game (34.9). This tells us Dalton will be throwing regularly to keep up with New Orleans and should find little defensive resistance when doing so.
Running Back
Tevin Coleman:
Coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, Coleman has a date this weekend with the Browns, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields. The Indiana alum has averaged 16 touches per game with Devonta Freeman sidelined, which has firmly cemented him as a RB2. Cleveland has given up the most rushing touchdowns (14) and the eighth-most yards per carry (4.7).
Duke Johnson Jr.:
He lives! Only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley recorded more receiving yards from the running back position last year. For some reason it took the firing of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley for the Browns to finally put Johnson Jr.’s skillset to good use. In his first game under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, Johnson Jr. set season-highs in targets (9), receptions (9), receiving yards (78) and scored his first two touchdowns of the year. This week he’s at home to face a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing backfields.
Aaron Jones:
Of players with 50 or more carries, no one is averaging more yards per tote than Jones (6.0 YPC). He’s led Green Bay’s backfield in snaps the past two weeks and saw a season-high four targets on Sunday with Ty Montgomery shipped off to Baltimore. The Packers play at home for the first time since week six this Sunday and face a Dolphins defense that has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing running backs.
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry:
Landry hasn’t surpassed 100 yards since week three but has a good chance to this Sunday at home against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most points per game (28.2) and the third-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers. On the flipside, Atlanta is averaging the ninth-most points per game (28.5) themselves, which suggests Cleveland will have to deploy a pass-heavy attack in an effort to keep pace.
Larry Fitzgerald:
Josh Rosen was starting to develop some chemistry with Fitzgerald before the bye week. He had targeted the veteran 28 times over their last three games and connected for a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. Kansas City’s top-scoring offense (36.3 PPG) will force Arizona to air-it-out early against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (302.7). Fitzgerald needs just 33 receiving yards to move into second-place all-time.
Tyler Boyd:
With A.J. green nursing an injured toe, Boyd becomes Dalton’s number one target in the passing game. The third-year receiver has broken out this season and is on pace for 98 catches, 1,240 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. This week Cincinnati is at home to face a New Orleans defense that has allowed the most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing wide receivers.
Tight End
Greg Olsen:
Olsen celebrated a touchdown for the third straight week on Sunday. He set season-highs in catches (6) and yards (76) and appears to be re-entering the upper tier of tight ends. He belongs in your lineup this week facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends.
Results: 4 Receptions, 40 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
Jordan Reed:
If you haven’t dumped Reed you’d be well-advised to roll him out this week. He leads Washington in targets (53), catches (33) and receiving yards (340). This week the ‘Skins face a Buccaneers defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, the third-most passing yards per game (307.1) and the most touchdown passes (22).
Defense
New York Jets:
The Jets have the great fortune of playing the Bills this week. Buffalo averages the fewest points per game (10.7) and the second-fewest yards per game (248.3) while committing the most turnovers (22) and giving up the second-most sacks (33).
Los Angeles Chargers:
Oakland has failed to score a touchdown in two of their last three games. They rank in the bottom half of the league in points per game (17.6), yards per game (353.8), sacks allowed (25) and turnovers committed (12). Meanwhile, the Chargers have held their opponents under 20 points for four straight weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Quarterback
Jared Goff:
Over his past two games Goff has thrown for 686 yards and six touchdowns. So why would you bench him? Well, in the two games prior he had merely 403 yards and two touchdowns. Goff’s fantasy production is very reliant on his opponent having a strong enough offense to force L.A. to keep throwing. The Seahawks rank just 17th in points per game (23.5) and have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford:
Stafford has more turnovers than touchdown passes over his last two games. He lost his favorite receiver, Golden Tate, at the trade deadline and now has a road game against the Bears. Chicago has surrendered the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers and gets the vaunted Khalil Mack back from injury this Sunday.
Running Back
Sony Michel:
First off, Michel is by no means a lock to play this week. He is still listed as questionable after practicing in limited fashion all week. With Cordarrelle Patterson and James White performing well it’s easy to see why New England might err on the side of caution. If Michael does play, he faces a tough matchup on the road against a Titans defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields. Only the Bears have given up fewer rushing touchdowns than Tennessee.
Kerryon Johnson:
Johnson has been bottled up as of late. His longest run over the past two weeks is just seven yards. Things don’t get any easier this Sunday with the Lions taking a trip to Chicago. The Bears have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.7). The only rushing touchdown Chicago has allowed all season was last week to Nathan Peterman.
Corey Clement:
It might be time to part ties with Clement. The second-year rusher has played just 32% of the snaps over the last three weeks, as Wendall Smallwood seems to have taken the lead role. Clement is averaging just one yard per tote over his last two games and faces a stingy Dallas run defense this week that has surrendered the second-fewest yards per rush (3.6).
Wide Receiver
Golden Tate:
The Cowboys have the most underrated defense in the league. They have allowed the third-fewest points per game (18.9), the second-fewest touchdown passes (10), the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (217.1) and the fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers. Tate is staring down a tough task in his first game with his new team.
Randall Cobb:
It’s been years since Cobb has been a reliable fantasy option. The eighth-year vet hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards receiving since week one and is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. In fact, Cobb’s 75-yard touchdown in week one has accounted for over 29% of his receiving yards this season. Cobb belongs on your bench against a Miami defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing receivers.
Marquise Goodwin:
Goodwin has four catches over his last three games. While one of those catches was a 55-yard touchdown, his other three grabs netted 35 yards, leaving fantasy owners frustrated. Though Nick Mullens impressed in his debut, he is still a third-string rookie and faces a more competent defense this week. The Giants have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski:
Dare I put arguably the greatest tight end of all time on the “Sit” list two weeks in a row? I do. Gronk was a late scratch for last week’s game and continues to deal with a medley of injuries. Even if he does play, the 29-year-old will certainly be less than 100%. The vet has been hindered by injuries throughout the year and his play has suffered. From week two on Gronkowski has averaged just 54 yards per game and has failed to find the endzone. This week the Patriots travel to Tennessee to play a defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Update: Gronkowski has been ruled out for New England’s week 10 matchup with the Titans.
Jared Cook:
Over 73.6% of Cook’s yardage this season has come in three games. Talk about boom or bust. Somehow, Cook is seeing half as many targets per game post Amari Cooper than he did when the receiver was still with Oakland. The Raiders have been sputtering downwards, failing to score a touchdown in two of their last three games. The Chargers’ defense has been playing well as of late, holding their last four opponents under 20 points.
Defense
Carolina Panthers:
A road trip to Pittsburgh should deter you from starting a rock-solid Panthers defense this week. The Steelers have racked up the fourth-most yards per game (415.2), the ninth-most points per game (28.4) and have surrendered the third-fewest sacks (11).
Results: 457 Yards Allowed, 52 Points Allowed, 0 Turnovers Forced, 1 Sack
Tennessee Titans:
Coming off their best fantasy performance of the season, Tennessee now hosts the high-powered Patriots. New England averages the fourth-most points per game (30), the ninth-most yards per game (387.6) and has allowed the seventh-fewest sacks (13).
