2018 Daily Fantasy: FanDuel NFL Week 10 Picks, Sleepers and Strategy - Roto Street Journal
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2018 Daily Fantasy: FanDuel NFL Week 10 Picks, Sleepers and Strategy

Welcome back to FanDuel Picks Week 10, your one-stop shop for the best daily fantasy football advice. Another week in the books, and another cash money grab. The Rams / Saints game did not fail to deliver from a fantasy perspective, and neither did our featured quarterback Jared Goff, who put up 30+ FanDuel points. Running backs Kareem Hunt and highly suggested cheap, sleeper RB option Jordan Howard found the end zone 5 times combined for just under 50 FanDuel points. Some of our lower tier wide receiver plays did not pan out as planned, but if you coupled them with the defensive start of the week (Chicago Bears DST, 28 FanDuel points), you probably evened out in the end. Ultimately, another solid week for the FanDuel picks. But there is no rest for the wary here, and we are right back to the grind. As a note, these picks are based on Sunday only leagues, so players on Thursday, Sunday night, and Monday night will be ignored.

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Quarterbacks

  • Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,700) – For a team loaded with talent on defense, the Los Angeles Rams sure have been prone to their struggles early on this season. And next up on the docket is Russell Wilson and a Seahawk team trying to crawl back into playoff contention. Wilson has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in each of his past four games, and 7 of 8 games overall this season. And in Week 5 he threw for 3 touchdowns and posted 19.92 FanDuel points against these same LA Rams. If we include that game (for the sake of argument), Wilson has gone for 20+ FanDuel points in 4 straight, and I like his prospect of making it 5 straight in LA where the Seahawks should be passing all day as 10 point underdogs in a game with a 51 point projected total.
  • Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($6,700) – This pick may shock you. Hell, it even shocked myself. But given the high quality RB and WR names below, I may need to shake it up at the QB position to provide myself cap flexibility. So enter Marcus Mariota who squares off against a New England defense allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and ranking in the bottom third in the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game. New England has allowed 19+ FanDuel points in 4 of its last 5 games, with the lone exception being two weeks ago to Derek Anderson, which does not count. And the Patriots “bend but don’t break” defensive philosophy always leaves them susceptible to running quarterbacks, such as Mariota. It may not be the prettiest pick, but Mariota should provide very good return at his low price against a poor defense.

Running Back

  • Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($9,000) – Properly predicting game scripts and game flow is key in daily fantasy points. And nothing is more indicative of a positive running game script than a 16.5 point home favorite. The Chiefs should absolutely bundle the Arizona Cardinals at home Week 10, meaning Kareem Hunt should once again see a plus workload. In a similar game script last week in Cleveland, Hunt totaled 141 all purpose yards and scored 3 times, and he is more than capable of duplicating that performance against an Arizona defense allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and the second most total rushing touchdowns and second most total rushing yardage per game.
  • Melvin Gordon III, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($8,900) – Speaking of positive game scripts for a running back, Melvin Gordon III should receive plus volume Week 10 in Oakland with the Chargers projected as 10 point road favorites. Returning to action Week 9 after sitting out Week 7 with a hamstring injury, Gordon was up to his old tricks totaling 123 yards and a touchdown. In Week 10, Gordon faces an Oakland team in disarray, allowing the most rushing yards per game, the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and the sixth most total rushing touchdowns.
  • Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($5,800) RSJ’s #1 running back waiver claimMike Davis profiles as one of the better RB value plays if Chris Carson (thigh) misses Week 10. In Week 9, Davis led Seattle in targets and receptions, totaling 107 yards of offense on a robust 22 touches. With Seattle playing from behind most of Sunday, expect Davis to be utilized early and often as a pass catcher, increasing his FanDuel prospects.
  • Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns ($5,600) RSJ’s #2 running back waiver claimDuke Johnson broke out in a big way last Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, leading all Browns in targets (9), receptions (9), receiving yardage (78) and scores (2). Sunday’s game at home against Atlanta could follow a similar game script as the Browns project as a 5 point underdog in a game with shootout potential (51 point projected total). Johnson looks revitalized under Freddie Kitchens offensive scheme, and could tear up an Atlanta defense that has struggled all year to contain pass catching running backs.

Wide Receiver

  • Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints ($8,600) – The initial draft of this FanDuel article had  Tre’Quan Smith once again appearing as a bargain basement shopping choice at the low price of $5,600. Sure, he did not truly breakout against the Rams, but he still scored a touchdown and showed promise for future matchups. But with New Orleans signing Dez Bryant, Smith’s prospects as the #2 wideout in the Saints offense looks rather grim. So we level up to the inhuman Michael Thomas. Thomas torched the Rams last week for 211 yards on 12 receptions (15 targets) for one touchdown, and has now caught 70 of 79 targets (88.6%) on the year. Almost unheard of given his volume. The Saints and Bengals combine for the highest projected total Sunday (54 points), and the Bengals allow the most passing yards, third most points per game, and fourth most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Thomas, as usual, will get his Sunday.
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,800) – The other WR1 in this game, Tyler Boyd has serious boom potential with A.J. Green (toe) due to miss multiple weeks. Given his productivity with Green in the lineup, his ownership is likely to be quite high. But Boyd has shown elusiveness and big play potential throughout the year, so he should have little issue carving up a Saints defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
  • Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($5,300) – With the Cardinals projected as a 16.5 point road underdog at Arrowhead, I do not expect Arizona to run very many running plays. And that should only benefit breakout wide receiver Captain Christian Kirk. While the Chiefs porous defense has been playing better as of late, Kirk holds real value at his bargain bin price, having scored double digit FanDuel points in 3 of his past 4 games. With most of KC’s attention going to David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, it only takes one for this speedster to make him worth your while.

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  • Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins ($4,900) – While I love how Maurice Harris performed Week 9, the fact is he is $1,000 more than Josh Doctson. And you faithful followers know I love a good bargain. Sure Harris led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yardage. But who scored the lone receiving touchdown? Doctson. And did you know Doctson outsnapped Harris 68 to 60? Doctson has burned me in the past, and he very well could again this week (and probably will again in the future, kinda like the Ghost of Christmas Past, Present, and Future), but with his price below $5,000 in a game with shootout potential against the Bucs league worst defense, I think I am willing to risk it one final time.

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Tight End

  • Jared Cook, TE, Oakland Raiders ($5,500) – With Amari Cooper shipped out of town, we all knew the Raiders would struggle to find their offensive identity for at least a short time period. But 3 points against San Fran! Sheesh! The offensive line allowed 7 sacks, and Derek Carr was benched in the fourth quarter for AJ McCarron, who likewise looked god awful. With a positive game script for the passing game Week 10 as double digit home dogs, John Gruden should release the hounds in the passing game, and Jared Cook should be the one to benefit. Cook ranks first on the team in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and second in receptions to running back Jalen Richard. Expect a better volume flow for Cook Week 10, as Carr and the Raiders are severely lacking any true, high-end skill position players.
  • Vernon Davis, TE, Washington Redskins ($5,100) – Although backup to incumbent Jordan ReedVernon Davis still finds ways to produce. Last week, Davis barely trailed Reed in terms of snap count (38 to 31), but generated far more production as Davis caught 5 of 7 balls for 62 yards, as compared to Reed’s 4-34 line on 6 targets. As we all know, Reed cannot stay healthy, and aggravated an existing neck injury last week. With his status never certain, Davis could fly under the radar as a nice low priced play against a Bucs team allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Defense

  • New York Jets DST ($4,900) – The Bills have the lowest implied team total Sunday of just 15 points and will be trotting out either rookie Josh AllenNathan Peterman, or (most likely) Derek Anderson, who just a few weeks ago was practicing his short game to ready himself for The Masters. He probably should have stuck to golf. Buffalo allows the most fantasy points to opposing defenses, allowing double digits in 7 of 9 weeks and 17+ in an eye popping 6 weeks this season, with a current streak of 4 straight allowing 19+ FanDuel points. The New York Jets DST should roll Sunday.
  •  Green Bay Packers DST ($3,900) – In Week 10, Brock Osweiler and the Miami Dolphins travel to the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field to face the Packers. The Packers currently project as a double digit home favorite, and the Phins have an implied team total of just 18.75 points. While the Green Bay Packers DST does not bring much to the fantasy table, they do rank 6th in the NFL in sacks. Oh, and they face Osweiler, who is just 36/61 (59% completion percentage) with 380 passing yards and 0 touchdowns over his past two weeks.

And that’s a wrap for Fanduel Week 10 analysis. Remember to always look at the matchups and Vegas totals, which are always telling, and do not be afraid to admit they know more than you, because they usually do. Until next time, good luck and don’t forget to tip me 10% of your earnings. Thanks in advance.

To contact me with any questions or general fantasy football discussion, please email me at [email protected] or tweet me @AJGamballer.

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