Welcome to 2018, Doug Baldwin! After an injury-plagued start to 2018, the former fantasy beast appears to be rounding into form, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 91 yards in the Seahawks’ demolition of the Raiders. Most importantly, Baldwin finally appeared to reclaim his rightful spot atop Russell Wilson’s Target Totem Pole, as the next-closest pass catcher had just four targets.
With his health and usage feeling far more secure, Baldwin appears to be a fantastic Buy Low for owners who can absorb his upcoming Week 7 Bye. The Seahawks have begun 2017 as the run-heaviest team in the NFL, with a dead even 50 / 50 split in Pass-to-Run ratio (and just 42% pass rate in their last three). This feels like a mirage, as this defense is absolutely atrocious on paper, and should be yielding big leads (re: positive passing-game scripts, far more often than they have thus far.
In fact, three of their past four games have come against three of the league’s lowest scoring attacks in the Cowboys (13 points), Cardinals (17) and Raiders (3). No wonder they’ve been able to bleed clock! Contrastingly, in the 7 games after the Bye, only two contests versus the 49ers project as a low-scoring affair. Looming dates versus the Lions, Chargers, Rams, Packers, Panthers, Vikings, and Chiefs are all ripe for “catch up” mode. As a potential target-vacuum in these scenarios, Baldwin is truly ripe with sneaky WR1 upside. Buy Baldwin (and even Wilson) Now while everyone is puking about the run-heavy Seahawks.
