Week 3 was very tilting after watching Calvin Ridley explode in what should have and felt like it was going to be Julio Jones‘ game. Nonetheless, still hit on a handful of picks which should have put you in the money.
Tapping into the Saints/Falcons shootout helped 'TheHodgesFactor' take down Week 3's @getroman Fantasy Football Millionaire.
Full standings: https://t.co/2LTIwudXHv pic.twitter.com/jErQYpVjIC
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 24, 2018
We’re back in Week 4 where it’s harder to find the chalk as not too many injuries have come out thrusting under-priced guys into the spotlight. Regardless, here are some players you should look to build lineups around for Sunday’s main slate.
QBs:
- Deshaun Watson ($6,300)
- For as shitty as the Texans have played, Houston’s poor performance has helped Watson in terms of game script. He’s constatntly chasing points and racking up the late passing yards and bonus rushing yards scrambling with his legs. He faces a stingy Colts defense on the road this week and will likely find his team chasing a lead once again heading down the stretch of the game. As long as Will Fuller is dressed, Watson has been fantastic.
- Matt Ryan ($6,100)
- Matty Ice more than delivered on his Week 3 RSJ pick throwing for over 350 yards and 5 touchdowns. He only saw a $400 bump as a result which is a little questionable considering his back to back stellar performances. Atlanta’s matchup with Cincinnati currently has an over/under of 51 points making it one of the highest totals on the board. The Bengals were in a shootout with Cam Newton and the Panthers last week (another solid pick from Week 3), so I don’t see how Ryan can’t have himself another strong showing at home.
- Andy Dalton ($5,400)
- The opposition to Matt Ryan above, Andy Dalton has flourished in Bill Lazor’s offense thus far in 2018. His lowest point total of 17.52 came in Week 1 against the Colts, and now he’s heading towards a shootout in Atlanta whose defense continues to wither away from injuries as safety Ricardo Allen was placed on IR. As long as AJ Green’s groin injury isn’t serious (which it isn’t believed to be) then Dalton has the pieces around him to put up big Week 4 numbers.
- Josh Allen ($5,100)
- Here’s a deep shot deciding to ride the hot hand of Josh Allen in the Bills offense. Yikes that was weird to type out. Hear me out though, Allen has shown in his three weeks of starting that talent is there and his mobility can be a major benefactor to his performance. Again, the Bills should be big road dogs heading into Green Bay, but the Packers defense is actually bad. Green Bay is currently bottom ten in points allowed, and just let Alex Smith and Washington have their way with them in Week 3. Dalton being only $300 more expensive is the more normal/safer play, but if you’re looking for that home run and extra salary boost to fit in a stud skill player, give Allen a shot.
RBs:
- Saquon Barkley ($8,100)
- The rookie sensation has been a true workhorse for the Giants through three games as he’s dominated touches in the offense both on the ground and through the air. The Giants face off with the Saints this week who have given up the most points in the entire NFL. Barkley’s average of 23.8 DK points per contest is as steady as they come, and you can be assured he’ll get a healthy number of receptions in what’s likely to be a high scoring affair against New Orleans.
- Gio Bernard ($6,300)
- Against the Panthers, Bernard delivered in his first action without Joe Mixon present in the backfield. What was encouraging is that the Bengals did not sign any other RB of relevance, and Bernard handled every carry that went to a RB (Tyler Boyd registered one carry). Bernard’s goal line usage, paired with a date against Atlanta who as we continue to mention love to allow passes to RBs (Kamara had 15 catches on 20 targets) seems like a match made in heaven this week.
- Marshawn Lynch ($4,800)
- Three touchdowns in three game for Beast Mode to start off his 2018 campaign. The Raiders RB has been dominant and efficient down in the red zone and at the goal line thus far, and now the team welcomes the Browns to town. We saw Isaiah Crowell carve up the Browns front down at the goal line with two scores in a revenge game narrative. Beast Mode hasn’t gotten that big 100+ yard rushing game yet, but you feel it coming as a home favorite in Week 4.
- Sony Michel ($4,500)
- In the wake of the news that Patriots RB Rex Burkhead will be placed on IR, Michel’s value skyrockets as the only remaining lead back on the roster. New England started to use him more in their game against Detroit, and while his production wasn’t great the usage was encouraging. The team lacks weapons on the outside at receiver, and will be looking for any help they can get meaning Michel will have a good amount of slack to pick up.
- Bilal Powell ($3,800) / Isaiah Crowell ($3,700)
- You simply don’t throw the ball with success often against the Jacksonville defense. Jets rookie Sam Darnold is in for a daunting task of facing the Jaguars on the road Week 4. I’d expect the Jets to try and utilize their ground game with Powell and Crowell, mixing in a bunch of dump offs to go with their carries. Crowell has been the better play in two of the three contests, so he appears to be the safer option. Both backs can be rostered though, it’s just a matter of your preference.
WRs:
- Jarvis Landry ($7,400)
- The change from Miami and Cleveland has had some positive changes to Landry’s game thus far. His average depth of target has increased drastically under Todd Haley since he was basically running 5 yard slants in Miami. Landry is stretching the field more and is the clear target hog in the Browns offense. The team also has made #1 pick Baker Mayfield their starter this week which raises the upside this offense can hit compared to Tyrod Taylor. Landry should be peppered in Mayfield’s first contest, and boasts a significant matchup over Raiders corner Leon Hall. Bless em.
- Will Fuller ($6,800)
- Another game, another big day for Will Fuller with a touchdown. He’s automatic with Deshaun Watson at the helm and I simply cannot stay away from him until his price gets higher. Hopkins is likely to draw Colts corner Pierre Desir who is having a very sneaky good season, leaving Fuller to feast on the poor corner matched up across from him.
- Allen Robinson ($5,900)
- The Tampa Bay defense has been god awful against the pass so normally I’d be looking to exploit them any way and as many ways as I can. Unfortunately, Mitchell Trubisky is kinda bad so as much as I’d love to load up on Bears, I can’t fully commit. I can look into Robinson though who has been the clear Option A for Trubisky in the offense. Hopefully the second year signal caller can figure it out, because this matchup is too juicy to miss out on.
- Sterling Shepard ($4,900)
- My favorite play this week, Shepard is in line for some serious production after snagging his first touchdown catch this year. The Giants have lost tight end Evan Engram for the next month or so which opens up a plethora of targets for the receivers. The Saints also lost corner Patrick Robinson to the IR who was expected to line up against Shepard with Marshon Lattimore likely to shadow Odell Beckham. As mentioned in Barkley’s post, the Saints have given up the most points in the NFL this year, and don’t look to be turning that around with more injuries to their secondary.
- Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
- After a coming out party against Baltimore Week 2, Boyd delivered again Week 3 against the Panthers with a great 6-132-1 line benefitting from AJ Green’s injury and avoiding James Bradberry in coverage. Green figures to be back and playing this week, but that doesn’t lower Boyd’s ceiling against a leaky Falcons secondary that’s dropping like flies due to injury. A plus matchup in a game with implied high point totals is something I like to target.
- Kelvin Benjamin ($3,600)
- This parlays off the deep play of Josh Allen above, but if anyone is to make a play for the Bills it’s to be Tub Club member Kelvin Benjamin. His numbers haven’t been pretty to say the least, but Tramon Williams can be beat on the outside if Benjamin uses his size to his advantage.
TEs:
- Jared Cook ($4,100)
- Oakland has had three different receivers explode in three games this year. Cook has seen a consistent number of targets for the Raiders, and if we remember correctly, the Browns were part of the tight end flow chart of defenses to target. With Cleveland rookie Denzel Ward playing out of his mind at corner, I’ll bet on Cook being the guy to break out this week.
- Eric Ebron ($3,600)
- In what looked like a fantastic opportunity for Ebron with Jack Doyle out, he put up a pedestrian 8 points against the Eagles. It wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great like we had hoped for. So what do we do? We double down! Doyle still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and the Texans provide a much better matchup for tight ends and Ebron here.
- Dallas Goedert ($2,800)
- Nobody had a more positive impact on Carson Wentz’ return to the Eagles offense than Goedert. The team went into more two tight end sets, which put Goedert on the field for 55/82 snaps. He responded with 7 catches for 73 yards and a score (on seven targets). The Eagles made him their first player taken on this past draft and you can see what they envision for him and the offense with all this flexibility. Sure Ertz is still there to garner most of the targets in the offense, but Goedert gives you red zone and touchdown upside for a fraction of the cost.
Defense
- Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,100)
- Though they didn’t win, the Jags held the Titans to nine points after murdering Blaine Gabbert and forcing Mariota into the game who didn’t have full feeling in his hand/arm. Jacksonville now welcomes rookie Sam Darnold into the fold, so you’d have to expect a few turnovers with a multitude of sacks. Exercise caution though, as we saw what happened to the highest priced defense last week.
- Seattle Seahawks ($3,200)
- The Legion of Boom may be no more but the lone remaining member sure let his presence be felt by the team he desperately wanted to be signed by. Earl Thomas had two interceptions against the Cowboys, whose offense looked downright putrid in this contest. Seattle will have the luxury of taking on Arizona in their next game who has decided to start Josh Rosen for the first time in his career.
- Indianapolis Colts ($2,200)
- My super cheap defense of the week. The Colts have usually been known for their weak defense, but this year things are starting to turn around. An improved secondary has made a difference along with some of the young talent they’ve brought in at the linebacker spot. Despite playing against Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, that Houston o-line is so bad that we’re bound to get some sacks out of the Colts. Watson also hasn’t been to keen with turnovers, so you’re looking at a defense that should easily cover it’s near minimum base salary.
Do you have any early leans? Questions about which guy you should go with this week? Want to yell at me for missing an obvious play? Sound off below or hit me up on Twitter where you can follow for daily news or advice on players.
