2019 Fantasy Football: Standard Scoring vs PPR Player Value

There are certain guys who are untouchable in standard scoring drafts. We're here to tell who you to target.

It’s the heat of fantasy draft season and if you’re anything like me, you have several upcoming drafts to salivate over. While joining numerous leagues can help multiply the fun, preparing for them isn’t as simple as printing off the first article you see. Different leagues can have different settings. Knowing when to take certain players can become tricky when you’re working with a variety of different scoring formats. Don’t come away from a draft thinking you’ve assembled a juggernaut, when in reality, you reached for players who are going to produce below your expectations.

The two main scoring formats are standard and Point Per Reception (PPR). The only difference between those two is that players receive point value for every catch they make in PPR, even if they gain no yards. For that reason, I am personally a fan of standard scoring, where only yards and touchdowns garner players points. You know, the stat categories that actually help a real life football team.

I’ll get off my soapbox. To avoid overpaying for guys in your next draft, take a look at my list of the top five players who’s value differs the most from standard to PPR scoring.

Honorable Mentions: Derrick Henry, Nyheim Hines, Julian Edelman, Cole Beasley, Larry Fitzgerald

James White and Sony Michel – RB – New England Patriots

Image result for james white sony michel

What would an annoying fantasy list be without it being highlighted by the most annoying backfield in fantasy!? These two running backs exemplify Bill Belichick’s “do your job,” mantra to a tee.

In James White’s case, the third down back has accumulated 248 receptions, 2,164 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air during his career. On the contrary, he’s only recorded 856 yards and seven scores on 207 career carries. Just last season, White was a PPR monster, especially when they eased Sony Michel into action. He finished as RB7 in PPR scoring, outscoring the likes of Melvin Gordon, David Johnson and Joe Mixon. In standard scoring, White was down at RB11, but trailed Gordon, Mixon, DJ and even Kareem Hunt. Last year was an outlier from a touchdown perspective (12), which is what made him a solid standard option. Prior to last season, his career high for touchdowns in a season was six.

Then we have Sony Michel. The former Bulldog entered the NFL with comparisons to Alvin Kamara and those comps could not have been less accurate. In his 13 regular season games played as a rookie, Michel rumbled for 931 yards and six touchdowns on 209 carries. But he consistently came out of the game on passing downs — finishing with a measly and pathetic seven receptions. In standard scoring, Michel finished as the RB25. In PPR scoring, he finished as RB35. With White on the team and Julian Edelman returning to action after his suspension, Michel wasn’t needed in the short and intermediate passing game.

Looking into 2019, White’s touchdowns will most certainly decrease, which will only raise his value in PPR vs standard scoring leagues. Although Michel has been working on his hands during camp (Brady completed every pass intended to Michel), White, Edelman and even rookie Damien Harris will likely be leaned on more in the short passing game.

Image result for duke johnson

Duke Johnson – RB – Houston Texans

Duke Johnson has finally been granted his sweet trade release! The Texans sent the Browns a conditional fourth-round pick to acquire Johnson and his incredible pass-catching skills. Unfortunately, this offense features plenty of mouths to feed, and HC Bill O’Brien hasn’t historically targeted his RBs often.

But he’s also lacked a pass-catcher like Duke out of the backfield. Plus, with only bleh Lamar Miller ahead of him, Johnson has a sneaky shot to overtake this backfield. He becomes a major riser on my latest Big Board. Meanwhile, Miller’s “three-down” upside has evaporated in less than a week, and he no longer presents much intrigue at his price.

Johnson’s been a receiving dynamo since entering the league. Per PFF, Johnson ranks:

  • Fifth in career receiving grade (90.9) among RBs with at least 100 targets since 2015
  • Fourth in percentage of first down or TD receptions (44%)
  • Second in forced missed tackles per reception (.34)
  • Seventh in yards per route run (1.73)

He’s also just one misused 2018 away from 74 receptions on 93 targets, which facilitated over 200 PPR FPs and an RB11 finish (RB15 in half).

The question then becomes: what will Johnson’s usage look like in Houston?

If O’Brien’s past is any indication, the outlook is bleaker than we’d hope. Since taking over in 2014, these are the Texans ranks in RB targets:

  • 2018: 32nd (68 total RB targets, 35 to the top RB)
  • 2017: 28th (86 total, 35 top)
  • 2016: 28th (83 total, 39 top)
  • 2015: 11th (114 total, 31 top)
  • 2014: 26th (90 total, 59 top)

In short – Duke’s 93 targets in 2017 have topped the entire Texans backfield in four of the last five years.

Still, Arian Foster might be the only pass-catching RB O’Brien’s had that’s on par with Johnson. He averaged 7 targets and 5.5 receptions in 2015 before getting hurt. There’s hope.

Especially when you consider the other glaring fact: Lamar Miller sucks.

He’s an explosive, sudden runner who thrives in space and stretches, and could shoulder a hefty load if it’s provided. If Miller continues his usual inefficiency, Duke emerging as the lead in every-facet is a real possibility. Considering this offense should be Top-10 overall with Top-5 upside, Duke would have Top-20 RB upside with 200+ touches.

Jarvis Landry – WR – Cleveland Browns

After being selected by Miami in the second round of 2014’s NFL Draft, Landry rapidly developed into one of the premier slot receivers in the game. I’m going to give you some stats and you tell me which format he should mainly be targeted in…

Since entering the league, Landry has been a reception machine. But outside of his 2017 season where he miraculously found the end zone nine times, his touchdown totals have been five, four, four and four. He’s also only recorded over a 1,000-plus yards twice in his five seasons. That doesn’t sound bad on paper, but for a guy who nears 90-110 receptions every season, it’s clear he’s one of the game’s elite chain-movers, but not big play guys. In 2018, Landry totaled 136 points in standard scoring. This was much lower than his 217 PPR point total.

Landry will continue to be a PPR monster in this Cleveland attack — just make sure you’re staying away from him in standard settings.

Author

  • Fantasy football writer for Roto Street Journal. Freelance writer, Senior Podcast Producer and Production Assistant for FOX59 and CBS4. Indiana University graduate class of 2016. Follow on Twitter @fasttakefantasy

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