Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Vikings -2; O/U 40
Cardinals – These are not the same Vikings from the first five weeks of the season where they went 5-0 and were an ultra scary defense to play. Now the losers of four straight are a vulnerable defense that opponents no longer have to fear. David Johnson should keep doing David Johnson things despite being limited to only 55 rushing yards. His touchdown and work in the passing game kept him at his standard high score. With the run game struggling to take off, Carson Palmer had a big day throwing for 376 yards. Owners would like to see more scores, but he’s unlikely to post those kind of numbers again. Larry Fitzgerald owners took a huge collective breath when he was hit and flipped going over the middle. He went to the sidelines after that play and will be monitored throughout the week, but should be playing on Sunday. Fitz had a huge PPR game and has proven to be WR1 material. The disappointment of what should have been a breakout for JJ Nelson ended up being the return of Michael Floyd to the passing game. Floyd had 5 catches for 101 yards including a couple big plays down the stretch to secure a victory. Floyd could be back to that #2 role many expected him to produce from before the season started.
Vikings – While the Vikings defense has taken a hit as of late, Sam Bradford and the offense have stayed relatively consistent. Bradford will still act as an emergency fill in guy that shouldn’t sniff starting lineups. His one job is to continue to pepper Stefon Diggs with targets. With 13 catches and 164 yards last game, Diggs has been sensational his previous three weeks in PPR formats. Minnesota needs to keep getting him the ball because it’s surely working. Kyle Rudolph found the end zone for a second straight game, however a date with Arizona is not the most promising. Vulture extraordinaire Matt Asiata led the Vikings with 9 carries last game for 13 yards and a touchdown. He is completely touchdown dependent from the goal line, rendering Jerick McKinnon all but useless in the offense. The addition of Ronnie Hillman has made the Vikings backfield a disaster to avoid at all costs.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Giants -7.5; O/U 43.5
Bears – The big news out of Bears camp is the recent suspension of Alshon Jeffery for four games. The loss of Chicago’s top receiver opens the door back up for Cameron Meredith to have big games similar to earlier in the year. Jeffery’s absence also allows Zach Miller to have a bigger role in the passing game, as he’s been reliably consistent all year. It’s a rough spot to use Jay Cutler and Bears receivers however against a solid Giants secondary. Jordan Howard rushed for 100 yards after an expected solid game, but there were reports he suffered a possible ankle/knee injury. He’s eloquently responded saying “nah, I ain’t suffer nothing” so he may have dodged a bullet. He was the clear lead back out touching both KaDeem Carey and Jeremy Langford combined 15-3. If healthy, Langford could see more work with a delpeted receiving core.
Giants – Odell Beckham Jr appears to be having fun again after his 10-97-1 stat line against the Bengals on Monday night. A date against the Bears secondary should be even more fun for Beckham who has the skills to blow the pants off that defense. Sterling Shepard has been removed from the witness protection program after recording his second straight double digit scoring game. He can become a reliable source as owners stretch towards the playoffs. This is also a good spot to use Eli Manning against a soft secondary. The run game hasn’t been much of a factor, forcing Manning to throw more. Rashad Jennings rushed for 87 yards and I wouldn’t expect too much from him against Chicago either.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Colts -3; O/U 53
Titans – Holy moly Marcus Mariota. The Titans QB is playing the best football of his career and might be the hottest QB in the NFL right now. Mariota threw for four touchdowns last game while building back the solid connection with Delanie Walker. Walker had a 9-124-1 stat line and was Mariota’s go to guy throughout the day. Rishard Matthews continued his streak of touchdowns Sunday connecting on a 32 yarder. He’s been a good plug and play each week. The offense should continue to beat up on a weak Colts secondary. While Mariota has been hot for a handful of games, DeMarco Murray has been running rampant all season. He had 123 yards and a touchdown off a 75 yard run. He also managed to throw for another score. Murray should do some pretty vial things to a bad Colts run defense while adding another 20+ point game to his trophy case.
Colts – Andrew Luck comes off the bye week after an impressive win at Green Bay. Unfortunately, the Colts did more work on the ground with Frank Gore, this limiting the passing game. Luck has been graced with the return of both Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen. The two are serious red zone weapons, and Moncrief has been basically a lock for a touchdown in every game Luck starts. TY Hilton should benefit from the low ranked Titans corners in PFF’s formulas. Hilton’s home/road splits are noticable so a game in the dome surely doesn’t hurt. As mentioned earlier, Gore had his way with the Packers run defense. He has been super consistent this year as the Colts have made it an effort to give him the ball. Melvin Gordon rall all over the Titans two weeks ago, and James Starks had a nice game last week so Gore is set up for a good spot here. The return of Allen makes it difficult to play either him or Jack Doyle as the two likely eat into each other’s production, despite it being a good matchup. Whichever gets the touchdown will have the good game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -7.5; O/U 44.5
Bucs – Jameis Winston and the Bucs had a big day against the Bears last week, but find themselves in a bad spot against the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs play extremely well at home, thus limiting the expected ceiling of Winston. If anyone can make good of a rough situation though it’s Mike Evans. He was held out of the end zone after clearing his concussion protocol, and could have similar fits against Marcus Peters and company. While Evans struggled, receiver Adam Humphries had himself a solid day while Cameron Brate performed very well. That Brate-Winston connection is starting to form a little later than we expected. The running game struggled mightily with both Doug Martin and Peyton Barber having limited running room. Neither had over 40 yards but Martin did score. It will be tough for either to get going in Kansas City.
Chiefs – As we expected, the Chiefs had trouble against the Panthers defense, while the emergence of Tyreke Hill was big for the passing game. Hill had 10 catches for 89 yards in Jeremy Maclin‘s absence and was the only consistent option on Sunday. Spencer Ware had a rough day as expected, but should bounce back nicely against Tampa Bay. It was nice to see Ware get virtually every carry without being short-handed by Charcandrick West. The take away from last game though is that with Maclin gone, Hill is the clear waiver target, but it’s Albert Wilson who can be the #2 guy at receiver after Travis Kelce failed to capitalize on a great opportunity.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals -2.5; O/U 47.5
Bills – Tyrod Taylor had surprising success against the Seahawks defense especially on the road. While he’s not one of the top options that comes to mind for QBs, Taylor has been very good his last couple weeks. His legs and ability to run in touchdowns give him added value. The Bengals present another good opportunity for Taylor to capitalize fresh off the bye week. The bye week was perfect for LeSean McCoy who just returned from his hamstring injury. He looked great against Seattle but the extra rest should have him ready to go heading towards the fantasy playoffs. Robert Woods had a great welcome back game in Seattle, and established himself as Taylor’s go to guy. He should continue his hot hand this week as well.
Bengals – Last week Andy Dalton really struggled for the first time in awhile against the Giants. I wouldn’t expect Dalton to have another rough performance this go around. He still has AJ Green to target after all. Green should have no problem against the Bills secondary and will continue to see such a high number of targets. Tyler Eifert could use some more targets though, as he did majority of his work off an early 71 yard catch. Playing at home should help the offense function more fluidly, which should be started through the run game. Gio Bernard was not nearly used as often as we have seen hm used. Jeremy Hill doubled Bernard’s rushing attemps, while Gio only caught three balls. Hill should be featured in the ground game and looks to have regained his goal line role back.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Steelers -8; O/U 44.5
Steelers – Pittsburgh finds themselves in a dream matchup against the winless Browns. Ben Roethlisberger looked like the normal Big Ben in a monster day where he and Antonio Brown went off. Now they get to play Cleveland so one can only assume that the stats will only go up against this hapless team. The same can be said for Le’Veon Bell who also had a very big game against Dallas. There’s no chance that Bell doesn’t have a good game this week, but you’re starting him anyways regardless. There’s a streamable option here with Eli Rodgers who has filled into the WR2 with Sammie Coates’ struggles. Rogers has had two straight solid games and can be a solid WR3 in your lineups if necessary. Cleveland has also given up the most points to tight ends, so Jesse James has a higher ceiling for Week 11.
Browns – The Cleveland offense has been so bland, it’s hard to find any consistent value in this miserable pile of filth. Terrelle Pryor Sr has been the shining star of the offense, but had a rough go around last week in Baltimore. Pryor could see similar struggles with Pittsburgh, as could receiver Corey Coleman. Coleman has returned from injury but has yet to capitalize on his chances in two weeks. Hopefully the Browns running backs were watching Zeke Elliott last week and took some notes. Granted neither are as good as Zeke, but Isaiah Crowell could find some room to run on Sunday. The unfortunate event would be that the Brows go down quickly and heavily forcing in Duke Johnson for the passing game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -7; O/U 45
Ravens – What can Brown do for you? Apparently it can make Joe Flacco a viable fantasy quarterback for a week. Flacco comes back to reality against Dallas though, who could give his receivers some value against the Dallas secondary previously torched by Pittsburgh. The return of Steve Smith Sr marks Flacco’s go to guy, which has limited the number of targets Mike Wallace has been getting. Smith is the safer play as he gets more attention, while Wallace needs the deep ball/touchdown to have a very productive day. Running back Terrance West has struggled to do anything lately, he’s become a tough play after his very solid run since taking over the lead role. The emergence of Kenneth Dixon has taken away some of West’s value, especially with his role in the receiving game.
Cowboys – The Cowboys find themselves in a tough task against the Ravens, who have done a good job of limiting opponents offensively. Dak Prescott is officially the starter for this offense after righfully winning over the job. He’s been spreading the ball around with Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten. It’s not an ideal matchup for Cowboys receivers here, along with the running backs if you are looking at the numbers. Ezekiel Elliott faces a tough run defense, but he’s Zeke and a freak so he’s matchup proof and will probably dominate no matter what.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Lions -6.5; O/U 47.5
Jaguars – Jacksonville has been rather disappointing this season after many expected Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson to take off like a rocket. Instead, both underperformed to say the least until recently when the Jaguars fired and appointed a new offensive coordinator. Now Robinson is getting his targets and catches back to 2015 like numbers, while Bortles continues to thrive in garbage time. This is a great opportunity here for tight end Julius Thomas as we have mentioned before that the Lions have the worst defense against opposing tight ends. Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon both were lackluster in their previous game, but have potential to produce against Detroit. I like Yeldon’s PPR value slightly more than Ivory for this week.
Lions – Scoring wise, the Jaguars defense has done a good job in limiting their opponents fantasy points in all aspects. Rookie Jalen Ramsey has done well in taking on team’s #1 guy which could hinder the production of Golden Tate. You have to consider this game being played in Detroit though, where Matthew Stafford has done relatively well. Early breakout stud Marvin Jones Jr has fallen into the winess protection program as he’s been nowhere to seen this year after his explosion. The big presence here could be Theo Riddick catching passes out of the backfield. Running backs are the group Jacksonville allows the most points to, so Riddick could come out hot fresh off the bye.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams
Dolphins -2.5; O/U 39.5
Dolphins – Jay Ajayi picked quite the week to put up a dud for me in DFS games last week which was nice. He could very well struggle again with the Rams defense who don’t get the respect or attention they deserve. Ryan Tannehill continues to not throw it Jarvis Landry‘s way for some reason. Somebody needs to check Tannehill for a concussion because he has a stud on offense and he’s just not using him. Instead, Kenny Stills managed to score a touchdown while DeVante Parker got all the yards. I repeat, GET JARVIS THE BALL.
Rams – Big news out of LA is that Jared Goff will finally start for the Rams. The Case Keenum experiment is over and Goff is supposedly ready to. We’ll see who Goff finds as his favorite target, similar to how Keenum was with Kenny Britt. Britt had been very consistent lately, so it’s tough to gage how he’ll mesh with Goff in his debut. It’s smart to just avoid all Rams receivers this week, while hoping that Todd Gurley finally puts it together. It’s extremely unlikely, but the Rams could look to run a lot in order to ease Goff into his starting role.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Patriots -11.5; O/U 51
Patriots – Tom Brady will look to bounce back from his subpar (by his standards) game, where he threw no touchdowns. All the scores came from LeGarrette Blount out of the backfield, so the Legion of Boom kept Brady and his weapons in control. What stinks though is it looks like Rob Gronkowski might miss this week’s game after Earl Thomas’ bone crushing (literally) hit. This would force Martellus Bennett into the No. 1 tight end role with the possibility for a big game. Blount owners have to relish the fact that the team takes on the NFL’s worst run defense in San Francisco. He should be running wild all over these defenders come Sunday. With the absense of Gronk, that could also push Julian Edelman into the “go-to-guy” for Brady when he needs a key pass. Edelman has started to wake up and had his best game of the year last Sunday.
49ers – I hope the 49ers watched the Patriots-Seahawks game because it likely gave them some hope going into Sunday. Granted, the Patriots don’t lose back to back games often, but that defense looked pretty exploitable. Colin Kaepernick has started to look good after becoming the starting QB, and has the legs and mobility to extend plays and call his own number. With his athleticism and the departure of Jamie Collins, containing Kaepernick could be tough for New England. I wouldn’t put too much stock in Carlos Hyde this week, New England has been pretty good with the run aside from last game. Receivers are tough to start as well. Jeremy Kerley finally stepped up last week and could become the guy, but if he’s covered by Malcolm Butler then it’s game over.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks -6.5; O/U 43
Eagles – Rough matchup here for the Eagles traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks and Legion of Boom. Carson Wentz is unstartable this week against one of, if not the, leagues best secondary. That also puts Jordan Matthews in a very tough spot here. If you can find better options on your bench that are borderline startle, give them a start over Matthews this week. The real confusing part of the Eagles offense is the running game. Coach Doug Peterson came out and named Darren Sproles as the starter and lead back of the offense. Sproles then proceeded to get 2 carries on the day while catching 8 passes. Instead of Sproles, Ryan Mathews got all the carries going for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. Made no sense. Just avoid all Eagles this week taking on a hot Seattle team.
Seahawks – Folks, Russell Wilson appears to be back. He looked like his vintage self against the Patriots on primetime tv. Hopefully you didn’t anger cut Wilson earlier because he’s back in the must start category. The Eagles don’t represent an ideal matchup for Wilson, but he’s shown he can get the job done. Speaking of getting the job done, CJ Prosise came in and grabbed the starting RB role by the balls. He did so well, the Seahawks were fine with waiving Christine Michael. Now that Thomas Rawls is back, the two of them will form the running game for Seattle. It seems like Prosise should be the lead guy while Rawls is working his way back from injury. Doug Baldwin worked his way back into the spotlight with three touchdown catches. Baldwin exploded last season at the end of the season, and could very well do so again if this chemistry with Wilson fires back up. Tyler Lockett is rounding back into form and is starting to look healthy again. What the Patriots did was limit Jimmy Graham’s production on the day, so he should come back to his normal levels.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Redskins -3; O/U 49.5
Packers – Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely slinging the rock with no running game. His receivers have benefitted greatly from this ordeal, most specifically Jordy Nelson. Nelson has scored a touchdown in three straight games while seeing his target numbers spike considerably. Hopefully he doesn’t draw full coverage from Josh Norman, which could put a cap on his ceiling. While Nelson has flourished, Randall Cobb has been struggling with injuries. We all want Cobb to be the stud WR2 he’s always been, but instead of Cobb it has been Devante Adams that’s filled in. Adams has been a stud and shouldn’t expect to see much coverage from Norman on the day. He stands as the one to benefit the most. The Ty Montgomery experiment seems to be over since James Starks has returned. Starks got the carries in the offense and even caught a touchdown, while seemingly taking the running back spot from Montgomery.
Redskins – If captain Kirk Cousins needed anything for a recipe of success it’s a Sunday night matchup against the Packers at home. What’s good about the Redskins situation is that they have so many weapons for Cousins to put up points. The problem is, you don’t know where the points will come from when trying to pick the skill players. The best bet for a big day is tight end Jordan Reed. He had a slow Week 10, but the Packers represent an ideal spot for the tight end. Even Vernon Davis could get in on the action here. The receiver I like the most is Jamison Crowder, the dude has put up double digit points in all games except one. DeSean Jackson has been limited in practice and opens the door for Crowder to have himself another day per usual. Pierre Garcon has been stepping up his production as of late so he can provide some streaming value if necessary. Rob Kelley has gotten himself the starting job while racking up 20+ carries in back to back games. The Packers aren’t the same scary run defense we had seen previously. He’s gotten the volume of work but hasn’t hit the big time numbers yet.
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Raiders -5.5; O/U 46
Texans – The Brocketship Brock Osweiler is heading international, south of the border to Mexico to face the Raiders. Luckily he doesn’t have to face the dreaded Black Hole in Raiders county, but nonetheless Brock will still probably suck. The Raiders have been bad on defense, mostly winning games by outscoring their opponents. If there’s a game where DeAndre Hopkins could look like last years version, it could be now. I’m not holding my breath though so my expectations have limits. Will Fuller has been limited in practice and has also done nothing to provide fantasy value. Lamar Miller also finds himself in a good spot, but he has not really done anything aside from the game with the Colts. The emergence of CJ Fiedorowicz has been interesting for the Texans offense. He’s been in the good-bad-good-bad trend so a good game is likely on deck if you believe in these kind of things.
Raiders – Viva La Carr. Hope Derek Carr brought his passport because he’ll need all he can get against the Texans defense. It’s not an ideal spot to use him, but Carr is undefeated on the road and this technically is not a home game for Oakland. The Raiders could do most of their work through Latavius Murray on the ground. Murray has come back strong from injury and has been living in the end zone the past couple of weeks. Both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper struggled with the Broncos as expected, and I wouldn’t expect too much production against a good Texans secondary. Both these guys have the skill to produce, but have a limited ceiling against a tough team.
